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National Situation Update: Friday, July 6, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South
More locally heavy rain is forecast for Friday across parts of eastern Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas. River flooding will remain a problem, especially across rivers in southeast Texas that feed into the Gulf of Mexico.

Rain will spread eastward to the Mississippi Valley and into part of Alabama, as well.

Scattered thunderstorms will be likely across the Southeast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue across the South Sunday.

Northeast
Unsettled weather conditions predicted across the Northeast on Friday. Look for scattered thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours, from New England to the Middle Atlantic region. Some thunderstorms may approach severe limits and large hail is possible.

West
Temperatures will be slightly lower across the Southwest on Friday. It will still be hot, through, around Phoenix, where the mercury will still rise to at least 110 degrees.

Friday will remain very hot across parts of Idaho and Montana where triple-digit heat is likely.

Widely scattered thunderstorms forecasted from Montana to the mountains of Arizona and New Mexico over the next few days. Isolated thunderstorms may develop in the Great Basin and Sierra.

Midwest

• This weekend, a few severe thunderstorms will accompany a cold front pushing down from Canada, into the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Michigan. (NWS, Media Sources)

Heat Wave in the West

A heat wave across the West showed little sign of letting up Thursday, with Las Vegas forecast to tie a record high and even northern Idaho expected to top 100 degrees.  A National Weather Service (NWS) forecaster said the heat wave began last week after a large high pressure center developed over Arizona. A weather pattern was pushing that high-pressure center north into Canada. Most of the West is expected to experience high temperatures into next week.

Temperatures in part of the West were climbing so high that authorities warned residents of southern Nevada, southeastern California and northwestern Arizona that outdoor activities could be dangerous except during the cooler early morning hours. Phoenix reached 115 degrees; Baker, Calif., reached 125 degrees.

St. George, Utah, hit 115 degrees by 5 p.m. Thursday, a day after a nearby weather sensor recorded an unofficial reading of 118, which would top the state's all-time record of 117 set in St. George in 1985. Summer temperatures across Utah are running 10 to 15 degrees above normal, according to NWS meteorologists.

In Las Vegas, the temperature reached 100 by 9 a.m., well on its way to the record high for the day of 116, according to the National Weather Service. The mercury last reached 116 on the date in 1985.

Near-record highs were also forecast for Southern California, where the mercury was expected to top 115 in the desert. Thursday was expected to be the hottest day of the year so far in northeastern Oregon, with temperatures reaching 106 in Hermiston and Pendleton.

In Montana, farmers anxiously watched their crops and thermometers. High temperatures for a handful of days can harm crop yield.

Spokane, Wash. reached a high of 100, and nearby Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, reached 99, just one degree shy of the record of 100 set in 1975. Friday's forecast didn't hold much relief from the nearly weeklong heat wave, either.

In California, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ordered the opening of state cooling centers in 13 counties, and the operator of the statewide power grid ask Californians to try to conserve energy to avoid brownouts. Power outages are also common because of the load demands put on the utility companies.

The high temperatures, combined with an extremely dry winter, also worried wildfire crews across the West. An index that helps fire officials estimate how fast flames would spread was at its highest point for early July in the past decade. A fire official said "We're headed toward a long, hard fire season, the way it looks. The public needs to be prepared for it".

Federal Support Update for Midwest Flooding

Chicago FIRST Team deployed to Kansas for the flooding to assist JFO with situational awareness.

Denver MERS deployed on July 5, 2007, to Independence, Kansas to support the Chicago First Team.

FEMA is providing 8 Mobile DRCs and two (2) water tankers to hard-hit areas in Kansas.

An estimated 15-20 truckloads of water per day (for approximately 10-14 days) along with 2-3 truckloads of ice per day are needed in Kansas to provide drinking water for 20,000-30,000 people.

Six MDRC have been requested in Region VI.  Four vehicles are currently on standby for Oklahoma, and two are in Atlanta.  (Region VI, Region VII, FEMA Logistics, Media sources) 

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new significant activity (FEMA HQ) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
A broad low pressure area located about 750 miles east of the southern Windward Islands is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph.  The associated shower activity remains minimal and environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for development.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
An area of convection has persisted approximately 650 miles south-southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 11 to 18 mph. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is poor.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A 6.1 magnitude earthquake occurred at 9:09 pm EDT, 420 miles ESE of Mexico City, at a depth of 78 miles. Mexican officials indicate there are no immediate reports of damage or serious injury(NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Individual Assistance PDAs began in Kansas on Thursday (July 5) with teams doing aerial flyovers of affected areas where hundreds of homes have been flooded. Ground PDA teams will continue more detailed damage assessments beginning Monday (July 9th).  Public Assistance PDAs for flooded counties are scheduled to begin next Wednesday (July 11th).

Individual Assistance PDAs began on July 3, in the Texas counties of Burnet, Eastland, Parker, Stephens, and Wichita. Public Assistance PDAs began in those areas July 5, 2007.

Public Assistance PDAs for six counties in Oklahoma, which began on June 11, 2007, and postponed due to weather, resumed on July 2, 2007. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:   2
States Most Affected: Alaska, Idaho, New Mexico
National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, July 5, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: Moderate (202 new fires)
• New large fires: 8
• Large fires contained: 4
• Uncontained large fires: 13

Neola North Fire, located three miles north of Neola, Utah, has consumed 42,465 acres and is 50% contained.  Thunderstorm moved through the fire area yesterday afternoon. Fire officials received reports of increased fire activity due to the winds associated with the storm. Estimated containment date is unknown

Oak Ridge 3 (Navajo Indian Reservation, BIA): 3,720 acres is 20 percent contained. This fire is 6 miles east of Klagetoh, Arizona. Extreme fire behavior was reported. Structures are threatened and evacuations are in effect.

Weather Discussion: Thunderstorms, some of them dry, are expected today in portions of the four corner states and western Wyoming. Dry thunderstorms are also expected in portions of northern California and western Nevada today and will spread into portions of Oregon on Friday. Otherwise, hot and dry weather will persist across the west. The northern and central interior of Alaska will see hot weather with very low humidity through Friday with some wet thunderstorms expected in the southern interior. The Southeast will have scattered thundershowers through Friday.(National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, FEMA Region X, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1711-DR-Kansas: Amendment No. 1, amended to include Elk, Miami, Montgomery, Neosho, and Wilson Counties for Individual Assistance.

The Governor of Missouri is requesting a major disaster declaration for Public Assistance, including direct Federal assistance, for eight counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide (FEMA HQ)