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National Situation Update: Wednesday, July 4, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Midwest
Storms moving into the Midwest will turn severe and contain damaging winds and large hail. The area most likely to see the action will stretch from Missouri through the Ohio Valley and up to the eastern Great Lakes.

Northeast
Thunderstorms could turn severe across parts of western New York, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia by Wednesday afternoon. Some of these storms could contain large hail and damaging winds.

South
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the Florida Peninsula. Gusty easterly winds will continue across northern Florida cities like Jacksonville.

More heavy rain will inundate parts of central and southern Texas and river flooding is likely. Scattered thunderstorms predicted for the Gulf Coast.

West
Extreme heat will continue across the Southwest and the heat will expand northward into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Triple-digit heat will reach as far north as eastern Oregon-southern Idaho border areas. Many record highs are anticipated.

Isolated afternoon and evening storms are possible across the higher elevations of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico but elsewhere it will remain dry. (NWS, Media Sources)

Midwest Flooding - State and Federal Response

Texas
There is a chance of 5 to 10 inches of rainfall beginning Tuesday evening and continuing into Wednesday in the Eagle Pass (Maverick County) area as well as a chance of up to 5 inches in Parker County.  Another round of heavy rain is forecast throughout the north, mid and south central parts of Texas.  This will increase the risk to flooding of swollen tributaries, rivers and lakes that are full. 

FEMA Region VI RRCC remains activated at Level 3, is monitoring the situation, and participating in daily conference calls.  FEMA state liaisons are operating from the Texas State Operations Center. The National Weather Service (NWS) Southern Region has provided a liaison to the FEMA Region VI RRCC.
 
The State of Texas, USACE, NWS and FEMA Region VI have been in close coordination regarding information flow concerning releasing water through flood gates and its impact on jurisdictions. 

The state is conducting daily conference calls with NWS, local jurisdictions, and FEMA Region VI.
As a result of sustained rainfall, the Governor of Texas has issued a Proclamation of Disaster for 37 counties.

Oklahoma
The Oklahoma City metro area has already had 20 consecutive days of rain. The Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management continues to receive damage reports from counties, cities and towns impacted by storms and flooding and remains in contact with emergency managers in the affected areas.

FEMA Logistics has commodities of meals, water, tarps, living kits, hygiene kits, and portable toilets on standby awaiting formal requests.

Kansas
Major river flooding will continue on parts of the Neosho and Verdigris rivers in southeast Kansas.  Scattered thunderstorms may move late tonight, into central Kansas primarily after 1 am. Although the thunderstorms are not forecast to be either strong or severe their expected slow movement means the affected areas may receive locally heavy rains.  With a weak cold front settling southeast across central and part of south central Kansas scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region for Wednesday and Wednesday night. A few thunderstorms may produce small hail 40 to 50 mph winds and heavy rains over central Kansas as well as Kingman, Harvey and parts of Sedgwick counties.

42,000 gallons of crude oil spilled into the Verdigris River from the Coffeyville Resources refinery on Sunday while the refinery was shutting down in advance of the flooding, and is threatening drinking water sources and recreation areas in Oklahoma.  City officials must also deal with the toxic sludge in flood recovery.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency had teams on the scene and are assisting in the cleanup efforts.

FEMA Logistics supported the water distribution efforts by delivery of three semi-trucks of water to Wilson County and two semi-trucks of water to Montgomery County.
 
The State EOC will be closed for July 4.   The State Duty Officer will handle all after-hours calls to the State for assistance.

All response, recovery and planning efforts will be handled from the Kansas Joint Field Office (JFO) in Wichita, Kansas.  Situation reporting will begin July 4, 2007 from the JFO.

Missouri
Several Missouri counties are reporting flood damages, including:  Bates, Henry, St. Clair, and Vernon counties. The Missouri State Highway Patrol is scheduled to do a fly-over of the flooded areas on July 4.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has released sandbags to Vernon County for use in Schell City.  They are sending technical assistance to the city to help them sandbag.

Missouri SEMA is closely monitoring and coordinating with SEMAs Area Coordinators regarding storm damage reports and/or assistance. The Missouri State EOC is activated on a limited basis. SEMA officials plan to staff the SEOC July 4 to assist locals with flood response.           

FEMA Region VII is in contact with SEMA for incident updates and briefings.

FEMA Logistics reports that additional requests have been made for six (6) trailers of bottled water. A request has also been received for water tankers (approximately 6,500 gallons) from LC-Atlanta.  Logistics is validating this requirement..(FEMA Region Region VI,, Region VII, NOAA, media sources)

California Activates Plan for Excessive Heat

The California Governor's Office of Emergency Services has activated Phase 3 of the Heat Contingency Plan - Heat Alert. This activation is in anticipation of expected Extreme Heat and High Temperatures forecast through Friday, July 6, 2007 for the majority of California by the National Weather Service.

The criteria for activation of Phase 3 of the State's Heat Contingency Plan:  Credible weather forecasts of excessively hot weather for three days or less. These weather conditions include high daytime temperatures accompanied by night temperatures of 75 degrees or more. National Weather Service Advisories of excessive heat for three days or less.

Expected high temperatures in California for July 4-6, 2007:  Red Bluff, 107 degrees; Sacramento, 103 degrees; Fresno, 109 degrees; Los Angeles, 109 degrees; Barstow, 112 to 116 degrees; and Baker, 119 to 123 degrees.

Last year and in previous years California has experienced numerous heat-related fatalities due to similar conditions. "Cooling Centers" have been setup in 17 California fairgrounds and thirteen (13) California counties as being most susceptible to the forecast of excessive heat.

All key State Agencies have been notified, OES is working with local governments of affected localities, to supply necessary resources.  There have been no requests for State resources or Mutual Aid at this time. FEMA Region IX and MERS Bothell MOC will continue to monitor the situation. No federal involvement is anticipated at this time. (Region IX)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new significant activity (FEMA HQ) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean is located about 1350 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity has remained limited in extent this evening, though it is possible that this system could become a tropical depression within the next couple of days as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No significant activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A moderate 4.6 magnitude earthquake was reported July 3, at 8:13 pm EDT in the vicinity of Adak, Alaska in the Aleutian Islands.  No reports of damage or tsunami bulletins. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Individual Assistance PDAs for Pottawatomie County, Oklahoma have begun and PDAs for Comanche County began on July 3, 2007.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2
States Most Affected: Alaska, Idaho, New Mexico
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, July 3, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: Moderate (297 new fires)
• New large fires: 7
• Large fires contained: 4
• Uncontained large fires: 14

Neola North Fire, located three miles north of Neola, Utah, has consumed 34,951 acres and is 10% contained.  175 structures, including the Ulintah County Power Station and a water treatment plant are threatened; 10 structures destroyed. Estimated containment date is unknown. A Type 1 IMT is assigned. The evacuation of Whiterocks has been lifted. The community of Farm Creek remains under a mandatory evacuation order.  The fire is currently moving away from the communities and toward USFS administered lands. The Governor flew over the fire area on June 30, 2007 and requested aid from FEMA. An FMAG was approved on June 30.  96 National Guard members continue to assist with the wildfire fighting. Utah DPS/DHS EOC is activated at Level III and monitoring the wildfire situation.

Weather Discussion: The West will be very hot and dry this week with record high temperatures in some locations. Dry thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in the Arizona, western New Mexico and western Colorado on Wednesday. By Thursday and Friday, thunderstorms will move over northern California, western Nevada and portions of Oregon. The Alaska interior will see a warming and drying trend along with some thunderstorm activity over the next few days. Scattered thundershowers should persist in the Southeast.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect through Wednesday morning for the foothill areas of the Santa Barbara South Coast due to gusty sundowner winds and low humidity. A Red Flag Warning is in effect through Thursday for the mountains of Santa Barbara and Ventura and Los Angeles Counties due to gusty NW winds and low humidity. A Red Flag Warning is also in effect through Thursday for the Western portion of the Antelope Valley due to gusty West winds and low humidity's.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, FEMA Region X, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Governor of North Dakota is requesting a major disaster declaration for Public Assistance for 11 counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide. (FEMA HQ)