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National Situation Update: Tuesday, July 3, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hazards for the Week

• The risk for severe thunderstorms extends eastward from the central Ohio valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England states on July 5th.
• The risk for severe thunderstorms extends from over the Carolinas to southeast Virginia on July 6th.
• Critical wildfire conditions are anticipated for the sierra into southern Oregon, southwestern Idaho and the northwestern two-thirds of Nevada due to the possibility of dry thunderstorms from July 6-8.
• Above normal temperatures are expected for the interior Pacific Northwest from July 5-6.
• River flooding is likely along the central area of the North Dakota/South Dakota border and over northeastern Kansas July 5-6.
• River flooding is likely across central Texas, portions of Oklahoma, and southeastern Kansas July 5.
• Heavy rain is possible over parts of southwestern Texas July 5-6.
• Severe drought will persist across the southeast, southwest, and southern portions of Hawaii. Some relief is expected across portions of Florida.

National Weather

South
Flood watches remain in effect for areas of Oklahoma and Texas. More significant rainfall is forecast for Texas in areas that have been inundated with rain. Additional rain is forecast from central Texas down to the Rio Grande. Localized areas could see anywhere from three to five inches of rain and perhaps more. The river flooding problem may increase this week.

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected across the Gulf region, especially during the afternoon hours. Rain will be increasing across much of the Florida Peninsula this week

West
Triple-digit heat is forecast for the San Joaquin Valley, with highs in the 90s in the Sacramento Valley.
 
Highs around Death Valley in California may approach 130 degrees by midweek, and triple digit heat is forecast for parts of eastern Washington, eastern Oregon, Idaho and western Montana.

Midwest
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be on the increase on Tuesday, especially from western Wisconsin back to eastern Nebraska.

Other thunderstorms will be scattered across the Dakotas and western Nebraska along with Wisconsin and Michigan.

Northeast
Most of the area will be dry on Tuesday; but the threat of showers and thunderstorms will increase by Wednesday afternoon from northern New England back through interior sections of New York and Pennsylvania.     (NWS, Media Sources)

Midwest Severe Storms and Flooding

Oklahoma and Texas
On Monday, the most significant heavy rainfall events have occurred further south across portions of the Texas Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend areas and southwest near the lower Rio Grande Valley. Region VI is monitoring the severe weather and flood threat in Texas and Oklahoma throughout the week.   Rain is forecast for eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.  Major flooding is occurring or imminent for many parts of Texas and Oklahoma. Fifteen rivers were forecast to reach major flood stage across Texas and Oklahoma. All 77 Oklahoma counties remain under a State of Emergency.  The Texas State Operations Center remains activated in response to ongoing storms and flooding.

The Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management continues to receive damage reports from counties, cities and towns impacted by storms and flooding and remains in contact with emergency managers in the affected areas. The Oklahoma City metro area has already had 20 consecutive days of rain.

In Washington County, Oklahoma 2,500-3,000 residents have been displaced by flooding since June 29, 2007. Bartlesville, Oklahoma (Washington County) has opened a Red Cross Shelter with ten people staying overnight; the Dewey County Red Cross Shelter housed 13 people overnight. The Salvation Army is providing feeding services for shelters and responders. Miami, Oklahoma (Ottawa County) is planning for evacuations as the water levels of the Neosho River continue to rise.

Kansas and Missouri 
Monday morning parts of the town of Erie were flooded with up to 4 feet of water, as a result of levees in the vicinity of Erie and Chanute, Kansas breeching in three places.   75 to 100 people were evacuated to two shelters. Major roads in Chanute are open. 

Most counties in Kansas are reporting flood waters are beginning to recede and roads are starting to open making some areas previously not accessible, accessible.  Local damage assessments are beginning.  Emergency management officials are trying to contain damage from a significant oil refinery spill in Coffeyville, Kansas that occurred over the weekend when raging floodwaters ravaged the southeastern section of the state. The spill occurred at a 108,000 barrel-per-day Coffeyville Resources refinery.

Numerous roads have been closed due to flooding in Bates, Cass, Henry, Jackson, Johnson, Polk and Vernon counties, Missouri.  Six homes in Bates County, Missouri were destroyed with an additional two homes flooded.  Some evacuations and water rescues have taken place.  In Polk County, Missouri an estimated ten miles of roads have been damaged.  Up to 10 feet of water reported over roads in Bates County. Up to five feet of water was reported over roads in Vernon County, Missouri. 

The National Weather Service forecasts that the Osage River (Vernon and Bates Counties) will crest on July 7, 2006, at a projected 54 feet, which is 24 feet above flood stage and three feet above record levels set in 1986. A local power substation in Schell City was affected by the 1986 flood and is preparing contingency plans. The city of Rockville was also affected by the 1986 flooding. Missouri SEMA is working with both counties on contingency planning. The Bates County EOC is activated on a 24-hour basis. A Missouri State Highway Patrol flyover of the flooding area has been requested.

Near record flooding on South Grand River near Urich and Big Creek near Blairstown are predicted. (FEMA Region Region VI,, Region VII, NOAA, media sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new significant activity (FEMA HQ) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
A low pressure area in the central Atlantic Ocean about midway between Africa and South America continues moving westward at about 15 to 20 mph.  Associated shower activity has increased slightly this evening, but conditions do not appear favorable for significant development of this system during the next couple of days

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No significant activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Monday at 12:19 a.m. EDT there was a 4.6 magnitude earthquake located 40 miles east of Hagatna, Guam. No tsunami or reports of damage. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Individual Assistance PDAs for Pottawatomie County, Oklahoma have begun and PDAs for Comanche County will begin on July 3, 2007.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2
States Most Affected: Alaska, Idaho, New Mexico
National Fire Activity as of Monday, July 2, 2007:
o Initial attack activity: Moderate (210 new fires)
o New large fires: 1
o Large fires contained: 2
o Uncontained large fires: 14

Neola North Fire, located three miles north of Neola, Utah, has consumed over 31,000 acres and is 5% contained. Cause is suspected to be power lines but actual cause remains under investigation. 100 structures, a power station, and a water treatment plant are threatened, 6 structures destroyed. 100-200 residents evacuated. Three confirmed civilian deaths, two unconfirmed civilian burn injuries. Estimated containment date is unknown. A Type 1 IMT is assigned.  Two communities have been evacuated. A shelter has been open housing 13 people. An FMAG was approved on June 30.  87 State National Guard members have been activated to assist with the wildfire fighting. 

Weather Discussion: Very hot and dry weather is on tap this week in the West, with record heat in some areas. Gusty winds are expected in some of the southern California mountains the next few days, as well as over parts of Montana. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in Arizona and western New Mexico starting around Wednesday, with the threat of thunderstorms for northern California starting around Thursday. In interior Alaska, scattered thunderstorms are expected today mainly in the south along with gusty winds. A warming and drying trend is expected this week along with a chance of thunderstorms. The southeastern United States will see scattered thundershowers the next few days.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, FEMA Region X, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President has signed disaster declaration FEMA-1710-DR for the State of New York for Severe Storms and Flooding that occurred on June 19, 2007. The declaration provides for Public Assistance for Delaware County.  All counties in New York are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.  The FCO is William Vogel.

The President has signed Disaster Declaration FEMA-1711-DR for the State of Kansas for Severe Storms and Flooding that occurred on June 26, 2007, and continuing. The disaster declaration provides for Public Assistance Category B (emergency protective measure), limited to direct Federal assistance, for 17 counties. Additional designations may be made at a later date after further evaluation.  The FCO is Michael L. Karl.

The Governor of Kansas is requesting an adjustment to the Federal cost share for the Public Assistance program for FEMA-1675-DR, declared on January 7, 2007 as a result of a severe winter storm.    (FEMA HQ)