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National Situation Update: Friday, June 29, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South
A cold front will move into the South this weekend. Thunderstorms will extend from the lower Mississippi River Valley eastward. An upper-level disturbance over the southern Plains will cause additional rain for Oklahoma and Texas. A tropical wave and upper-level disturbance will enhance rainfall over the Florida Peninsula.

Northeast
A cold front preceded by severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail and flash-flooding, will move across Maryland and Delaware.  Highs will range from the 60s in Upstate New York and northern New England to the low 80s in southern Virginia.

Midwest
Thunderstorms will extend from southeast Kansas to Kentucky. Temperatures will range from the 60s to 70s in Upper Michigan to the upper 70s and 80s in the Ohio Valley.

West
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast for Colorado and New Mexico. Showers in the Pacific Northwest and isolated thunderstorms in Montana, the West remains dry.  Gusty winds, will keep the fire danger extremely high in the Sierra and Nevada Great Basin. (NWS, Media Sources)

Angora Fire (Lake Tahoe, California) Update

The Angora Fire in the Lake Tahoe Basin continues to threaten several communities. Thursday afternoon (June 28, 2007) the fire was reported at 3,100 acres and 70 percent contained, with an estimated containment date of July 3, 2007.  There are currently 2,174 fire personnel assigned to this incident.  To date, approximately 329 structures have been destroyed (254 are residences). At least 800 residences remain threatened along with 275 commercial structures and 180 outbuildings.
Strong winds (gusts up to 35 mph) are forecast during the next few days which will hamper firefighting efforts.(Region IX, National Interagency Fire Center)

Mid West Severe Storms and Flooding

Texas 
Stagnant weather pattern provides favorable development of thunderstorms.  Rainfall totals in excess of 10-12 inches are likely through the next 5-7 days. Shelters have been established in Cooke, Midland, Hood, Eastland, Parker, Bell, Williamson, Burnet counties  Numerous roads are closed in Dallas, Ellis, Llano, Cooke, Midland, Hood, Eastland, Parker, Bell, Williamson, Burnet counties.
The United States Coast Guard is providing three H-65 helicopters staged in Austin, San Antonio, and Houston to assist with response operations. FEMA Region VI anticipates that the state will request a major disaster declaration.(Region VI)

Oklahoma
The weak low pressure system is forecast to remain in the region through the weekend. Numerous roads are closed in Jefferson, Lincoln, Love, Cooke, Pontotoc, and Pottawatomie counties. The Governor of Oklahoma has declared a State of Emergency for all 77 Oklahoma counties. 
No shelters open at this time. (Region VI)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG-2701-FM-HI was issued for the Olowalu Fire on the Island of Maui (Maui County) near Lahaina. The Fire has burned more than 800 acres on State and private land. Two Subdivisions:  Olowalu and Laniu-Poko, 200 Homes threatened, 300 people. 200 individuals have been evacuated. There are currently 3 shelters open with an unknown number of occupants.  Power lines/facilities, watershed, cultural historical resources and wildlife threatened. Fire is approximately 2 miles from Lahaina (population 18,000). Fire is 0% contained. There is no estimated date for containment.

FMAG for Utah Pleasant Grove Fire near Orem, Utah was denied. The fire has burned more than 300 acres of state and private lands. Three homes and one campground have been evacuated.  110 structures, (multi-unit condos and homes) will be threatened within next 24 hours.  Power lines, communication towers, power station are also threatened.  Provo River likely to be threatened with run off.  Most structures average 100 yards from fire. Air tanker support is on the way from Nevada.  Winds 15-25, gusting to 35, and temperature of 95 degrees, with single digit humidity.  No change in weather predicted, though even hotter weather may occur.  No containment so far.  Fire is unpredictable.  (FEMA HQ) 

New Advanced Hurricane Model Aides NOAA Forecasters

NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction and its National Hurricane Center forecasters will now use the Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model (HWRF) to predict the track and strength of storms this hurricane season.

Developed by scientists at the NOAA Environmental Modeling Center, HWRF is a new cutting-edge computer model that will serve as the operational backbone for current and future hurricane track and intensity forecasts by meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

HWRF, a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, will utilize highly advanced physics of the atmosphere, ocean and waves in one prediction system, providing unparalleled understanding of the science of tropical cyclone evolution. Its output gives meteorologists an analysis of the hurricane in three-dimensions from real-time airborne Doppler radar. It will make use of a wide variety of observations from satellites, data buoys, and hurricane hunter aircraft. No other hurricane model accesses this wide of a range of meteorological information.

"It is vital that we understand all the factors of hurricane forecasting throughout the life of a storm and HWRF will provide an unprecedented level of detail. Over the next several years, this model promises to improve forecasts for tropical cyclone intensity, wave and storm surge, and hurricane-related inland flooding. It will be one of the most dynamic tools available for our forecasters."

HWRF will eventually run at a very high resolution with advanced representation of a hurricane on many different scales of motion, which means it will be able to describe and forecast the smaller scale features of the hurricane circulation along with its interaction with the environment. This will provide forecasters with critical information on the evolution of the wind structure within the storm.

"We must continue to improve our modeling capabilities and, with HWRF, more accurate hurricane forecasts will help protect the lives of those prone to such storms. HWRF will serve as a platform for future enhancements that will incorporate more advanced physics and advanced observations of both the atmosphere and ocean, not only through the large-scale global observations, but of the storm circulation.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Surface observations indicate that a very weak low pressure area has formed just to the south of the lower Florida Keys.  However, the associated cloudiness and showers remain poorly organized and upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development. This system is forecast to move near or over the Florida peninsula and could produce locally heavy rains across portions of the Bahamas and Florida.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Shower activity has increased somewhat in association with a broad area of disturbed weather located about 575 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Some slow development of the system may occur before it moves westward over cooler waters.
Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No significant activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2
States Most Affected: California, Alaska
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, June 28, 2007:
Initial attack activity: moderate (201 new fires)
New large fires: 8
Large fires contained: 2
Uncontained large fires: 19
Windy conditions will continue over the northeastern California and the Great Basin ahead of a large low pressure system off the coast.  There is a chance for thunderstorms, some dry, to develop over eastern Arizona, western New Mexico and portions of the intermountain west.  In Alaska, conditions will become warmer and drier.  The Southeast will see widespread showers and thunderstorms. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, FEMA Region X, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)