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National Situation Update: Monday, June 11, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hazards for the Week

• Severe weather Northern Plains - June 11.
• Severe weather Northern and Central Great Plains - June 12.
• Severe weather Upper Mississippi Valley - June 13.
• Heavy rains Central and Northern Plains - June 11-14.
• Large ongoing wildfires - Florida, Georgia
• Large ongoing wildfire - central Alaska.
• Continued river flooding - North Dakota, South Dakota.
• Severe drought with some relief possible - Minnesota, Wisconsin.

National Weather Summary

Midwest
Parts of Missouri and southeast Kansas will continue to receive showers and thunderstorms, some severe.

Scattered showers and storms are forecast in northern Minnesota, while some severe storms (and possible tornadoes) are predicted Monday afternoon in North Dakota, southward over the western High Plains. This could further exacerbate flooding on the Red River of the North and the James River, with the potential to cause flooding downstream from existing flood locations.

South
Some rain, mainly in the afternoon and evening, are forecast for the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida, and farther west, Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, parts of Louisiana, and maybe spots in eastern and far western Texas.

West
A few severe thunderstorms (strong winds, large hail) could erupt over eastern Colorado in the afternoon.

Northeast
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in New England and western Virginia.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
An area of low pressure, located about 360 miles southwest of Manzanillo Mexico, is moving northwestward around 5 to 10 mph.  A tropical depression may form tonight or tomorrow. The system is forecast to encounter cooler waters in a couple of days which would inhibit tropical cyclone formation.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone formation is expected during the next 48 hours.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

At 2:06 p.m. EDT a 4.4 magnitude earthquake occurred in Northern Alaska at a depth of 6.2 miles. The earthquake was centered in a location 61 miles east of Fork Yukon, Alaska, and 178 miles northeast of Fairbanks, Alaska. No injuries or damages were reported (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Oklahoma - Public assistance PDAs for five counties are scheduled to begin June 11, 2007.

Nebraska - Individual Assistance PDAs for two counties and Public Assistance for 19 counties are scheduled to begin June 18, 2007.

Kansas - Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs have been requested for 3 counties. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2

States Most Affected: Georgia and Florida

National Fire Activity as of Sunday, June 10, 2007 at 10:00 a.m. EDT:

• Initial attack activity: Light (122 new fires burning 1,258 acres).
• New large fires:        1
• Large fires contained:                1
• Uncontained large fires:              10
• Year to date fires:      41,575
• Year to date acres burned 1,450,648

Current Situation: On Saturday, June 9, 2007 the Big Turnaround fire reported a decrease of 18,916 acres due to the elimination of an error that double reported acres with the Sweat Farm fire.

Fire Weather Discussion: The Southwest will experience scattered, dry thunderstorms over eastern Arizona, western New Mexico, and southwest Colorado. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase and expand into central Arizona. Portions of the Great Basin, especially over western Utah, will have gusty winds and low humidity. Interior Alaska will see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Drier weather will be spreading into the Southeast for lower humidity and fewer thunderstorms. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, Joint Information Center FL/GA), media)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)