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National Situation Update: Wednesday, June 6, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Midwest
Cool air from the Rockies will clash with warm air from the Gulf of Mexico, creating storms that will bring heavy rain, large hail, damaging winds and the potential for tornadoes to the Northern Plains, specifically parts of eastern Montana, western and central portions of the Dakotas and northwest Nebraska. Wednesday night this system will move eastward into northern Minnesota and eastern sections of the Dakotas and Nebraska, with similar possibility for rain, hail and strong wind gusts.

Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. Wind advisories have been issued from the central Plains eastward into parts of southern Minnesota, western Iowa and extreme northwestern Missouri.

West
A powerful low pressure system has sent temperatures across the Intermountain West plunging by as much as 30 degrees and contributing to a risk of snow in the higher elevations of the northern Rockies and mountains of Utah. In areas west of the Washington and Oregon Cascades rain showers are forecast, along with snow showers at or above 4000 feet.

The intermountain West from Idaho and Montana southward into eastern Nevada, Utah and western Colorado will receive most of the area's precipitation. A winter storm watch is posted for areas of central and southwest Montana above 6000 feet, where up to 18 inches of snow can be expected by early Thursday. Strong, gusty winds will continue over the Great Basin and the Southwest; critical wildfire conditions are likely to continue in Arizona and New Mexico.

South
Climbing temperatures will contribute to isolated severe thunder storms across Georgia through late Wednesday, when daytime heating diminishes. Elsewhere most of the region will be dry, except for a few thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast and across the Florida Peninsula.

Northeast
Strong thunderstorms across New England, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley will diminish by early Wednesday morning. Most of the region will be dry, and the northern half of the region will be cooler. (NWS, Media Sources)

Wildfire Rekindles in the Sierra Nevada Range

Strong southerly winds Tuesday rekindled and rapidly spread the previously contained Larson Wildfire, located in the Sierra Nevada range near the California-Nevada border north of Yosemite National Park (between Walker and Coleville, Mono County, California). The fire has been smoldering since lightning started it on Friday near Coleville High School. Mandatory evacuations were ordered Tuesday morning by the Mono County Sheriff's Office for more than 200 residents in the area. The media reported that about 50 homes and structures were threatened; however as of early Tuesday afternoon PDT no injuries or damage to homes had been reported.

Cyclone Gonu's Winds Blast Oman Coast

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, at 5:00 am EDT, Cyclone Gonu was centered just off central Oman, about 70 miles east-southeast of Muscat and was traveling along the coastline at about 8 mph. The steadily weakening storm was still packing sustained winds of 86 mph with gusts of up to 115 mph, and churning up ocean waves as high as 28 feet.

Forecasters said Gonu has weakened significantly over the last 24 hours, with winds expected to continue dropping as the system makes landfall Wednesday and skirts the region's biggest oil installations. Analysts warned it could disrupt shipping in the Straits of Hormuz, causing a spike in prices.  Oil prices rose on Monday but retreated Tuesday, although the storm weighed heavily on the market.

Gonu was expected to hit land in southeastern Iran late Wednesday or early Thursday.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicted rough seas in the Straits of Hormuz, the transport route for two-fifths of the world's oil and the southern entrance to the Gulf. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center, media sources)

Downtown Fargo, North Dakota Dike in Place

The Governor issued a disaster declaration for areas of the Red River Valley affected by heavy rainfalls last weekend, and requested the Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) emergency operations assistance for the City of Fargo and other communities along the Red River as necessary.

By Tuesday night, USACE workers were putting finishing touches on a 3½- to 4-foot-tall temporary clay dike, built to a river level of 35 feet, designed to defend downtown Fargo from the swelling Red River.

According to a National Weather spokesman, heavy rain across much of the southern Red River Valley Wednesday into Thursday could elevate the crest slightly, but mostly it would just prolong the peak river level. However, that also can cause problems because a high river level softens dikes and forces the city to pump storm water over the dikes. (USACE, media sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean: No significant tropical activity

Eastern Pacific: No significant tropical activity.

Western Pacific: No significant tropical activity (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Tremblers continue in the Guam Region over the last 24 hours with reports of a 4.7 magnitude, 115 miles SW of Hagatna, Guam, at a depth of approx. one mile.  No reports of damage or injuries. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

  • Individual and Public Assistance PDAs for three counties in Kansas have been requested.
  • Individual and Public Assistance PDAs for three counties in Iowa began June 2, 2007.
  • Individual Assistance PDAs for three parishes in Louisiana are scheduled to begin June 7, 2007. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2

States Most Affected: Georgia, Florida, and California

National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, 5 June, 2007 at 10:00 a.m. EDT:
Initial attack activity: Moderate (272 new fires burning 5,582 acres).
New large fires:                 2
Large fires contained:                3
Uncontained large fires:              12
Year to date fires:       40,646
Year to date acres burned 1,393,503

Current Fire Situation:
Heavy rainfall from the weekend in the southeastern United States continues to help firefighters contain the large fires in Georgia and Florida. Several advisory evacuations requests have been lifted in Georgia. Lightning activity ignited new fires in California and Arizona with only one in Arizona becoming a large fire.

Fire Weather Discussion:
An upper level storm system will move across the Northwest today with dry and windy conditions for the Great Basin, Southwest, southern California and the western Rocky Mountain Area. Cooler and wetter conditions will move in behind the cold front over the northwest quarter of the country. Warm and windy conditions will continue over the interior and northeast. Light precipitation is expected in the Southeast. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, Joint Information Center FL/GA), media)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:47:19 EDT