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National Situation Update: Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Thunderstorms and Potential Flooding in Central U.S. Tuesday

Midwest
Strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall are likely across western sections of Kansas.

Scattered storms and showers will persist from the Upper Midwest to Missouri, and isolated storms are expected over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

South
Expect rain west of the Mississippi while the parched Southeast remains hot and dry.

Look for scattered thunderstorms from the Mississippi valley to the western Gulf Coast. Parts of western Texas may see some strong to severe thunderstorms, especially east of Lubbock and Midland.

Smoky skies will continue across parts of southern Georgia and eastern Alabama as the southeast Georgia fires continue.

West
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from Montana to Colorado. In southeastern Colorado a few of the storms could turn severe.

Northeast
Most of the Northeast will be sunny, with the exception of a few isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Virginias.(NWS, Media Sources) 

Weather Radios for Indiana Mobile Homes

The Governor of Indiana signed a bill into law last month requiring mobile homes to come equipped with emergency weather radios. The always-on radios broadcast National Weather Service warnings on special frequencies when severe weather is nearby.

The first-of-its-kind law, which applies to mobile homes installed at mobile home parks after June 30, is part of a push among tornado-stricken states to bolster severe weather warnings by going beyond traditional storm sirens and television alerts.

A spokesman for the Indiana Manufactured Housing Association believes the law should be extended to all homes, not just the state's roughly 1,200 mobile home parks, however experts say the focus should be on mobile homes, which they say are particularly vulnerable to tornadoes.

Engineers from the National Storm Shelter Association point out that mobile homes give wind pressure a large area to act on, but they don't have a lot of dead weight to keep anchored down.  They further indicate that mobile home residents represent less than 10 percent of the nation's population. Yet those residents make up about 33 percent of all tornado-related deaths. From 2000 to 2005, mobile home residents accounted for more than half of tornado-related deaths. (media sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean: No significant activity to report.

Eastern Pacific:
As of 5:00 am EDT May 29, Tropical Storm Alvin (formerly TD One-E) was located about 755 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The system is moving toward the west-southwest at 6 mph, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 40 miles per hour (mph), gusting to 52 mph. Despite the upgrade, the system is not exceptionally well-organized; conditions along the forecast track still do not appear to favor significant strengthening, however favorable water temperatures support the possibility that Alvin could strengthen slightly over the next few days. On the projected path, Alvin does not pose a threat to the U.S. or U.S. interests.

An area of low pressure located approximately 300 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico has been producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system to a tropical depression is possible during the next couple of days as the system drifts westward.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific: No significant activity to report. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level: 2 as of 11:00 am EDT Monday, May 28, 2007.

National Fire Activity:

• New large fires:   1
• Large fires contained:  4
• Uncontained large fires: 14  (Does not include naturally ignited, managed fires (WFU), or confine/contain incidents).
• States reporting large fires: Alaska (1), Arizona (1), Florida (6), Georgia (3), North Carolina (1), and Tennessee (2).
• There are 5,732 personnel committed to wildfires nationally, an 18% increase from the previous day.

Fire activity was light in the United States Monday with 118 new fires reported, burning 3,633 acres. Currently, there are 14 fires and complexes over 500 acres in size. There were two new fires larger than 500 acres Monday - Blue River in Arizona and Pigeon Branch in Tennessee. One fire contained several days ago has escaped containment lines: Middle of Nowhere in Florida.

There were three fires larger than 500 acres declared 100% contained Sunday - Bolli in California, Stag Road in North Carolina and Jinx in Florida. Nine wildland fires in Florida and three in Georgia have been contained in the past two days. Only one new large fire was reported in Arizona. Firefighters from around the country continue to battle nine large wildland fires in Florida and Georgia that have burned more than 667,000 acres.

Fire Weather Discussion: Dry weather continues over the Southeast. Gusty winds are predicted for the Great Basin and northern Arizona. Dry northeast winds are expected in northern California. The Great Basin will have gusty winds, with the possibility of a few thunderstorms. Interior Alaska will be mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, along with a few thunderstorms.(National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, )

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)