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National Situation Update: Monday, May 21, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Storms Threaten the Northern Plains

Midwest:
Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast for the Northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening in the areas including:  the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Kansas. The storms may include high winds (greater than 60 miles per hour), large hail, and a possibility of tornadoes. 

The storms are expected to slowly move eastward during the upcoming week, dropping several inches of rainfall in areas that are already saturated from previous storms. 

South:
High temperatures will continue in the low to mid-80s for most of the South on Monday. 

Unusually low humidity, lack of precipitation, and the continuance of the severe Southeast drought continues to create an environment of fire danger, particularly in southern Georgia and northern Florida. Little drought or fire relief is expected until possibly late next week.

There is a possibility of severe storms in west Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle.

West:
Scattered showers are expected Monday in the Pacific Northwest.  Snow is possible in the higher elevations in Oregon, Idaho, and Montana.

Highs will range from the 40s in the northern Rockies to near 100 in southwest Arizona.

Northeast:
Except for northern Maine, the Northeast region is expected to experience warm and dry weather for the next several days. Highs in the region on Monday will be in the 60s-80s. 
(NWS, Media Sources)

Florida Wildfires Update

Paterson Fire: 19,000 acres burned and is 60% contained. The fire is not currently threatening structures. The fire has high rates of spread with spotting.

Florida Bugaboo Fire: The 121,350-acre fire in Baker and Columbia Counties continues to burn within the interior, but has not progressed beyond the previous boundary. The fire is 90% contained.  All evacuations for the Florida portion of the Bugaboo Fire have now been lifted. Numerous structures in several communities remain threatened.

Dairy Road Fire: The 14,626 acre fire in Bradford County is 80% contained. Estimated containment date is May 22.

Deland Complex: The Deland Complex, composed of three fires, has burned 10,025 acres and is 85% contained. Estimated containment date is May 22.

BICY Complex- The fire is located in the Big Cypress National Preserve near Sunniland, FL in Collier County. Fire has burned 21,500 acres and is 50% contained.
(National Fire Interagency Center, Florida DOF)

Georgia Wildfires Update

Sweat Farm Road: Started on private land 10 miles west of Waycross, GA in Ware County.  The 55,527-acre fire is 85% contained.  Structures, a state forest and refuge remain threatened. Estimated containment date is May 31.

Big Turnaround Complex (Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge): The 110,767-acre complex in Ware and Charlton Counties is 45% contained. This fire is 10 miles southeast of Waycross. Folkston and other surrounding communities remain threatened.

Bugaboo Scrub (Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge): The 160,727-acre fire 16 miles west of Folkston in Ware County is 45% contained. Protection of the communities of Moniac and St. George in Georgia and the community of Baxter, Florida continue to be priorities.

Bugaboo Scrub 2 (Georgia Forestry Commission): The 5,585-acre fire in Clinch County is 52% contained. The fire is five miles east of Fargo and threatens numerous structures.  (National Interagency Fire Center, Georgia DOF)

New Jersey Wildfire

Warren Grove: The 17,270-acre fire is nearly contained. The fire, located 25 miles north of Atlantic City, is expected to be contained by May 21. (National Interagency Fire Center)

California and Arizona Wildfires

A 2,500-acre wildfire near campsites in national forests of Southern California was reported to be 80% contained on Sunday. At least 3,000 people, mostly campers, were evacuated from the area.

A wildfire in an Arizona national forest was also 80% contained during the weekend. Twenty one evacuees were allowed to return to their homes.  (media sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean: No significant activity to report.

Eastern Pacific: No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific: At 5:00 pm EDT May 20, Typhoon (TY) 02W (Yutu), located approximately 667 miles southwest of Iwo Jima, has tracked northeastward at 12 mph over the past six hours.  Increased vertical wind shear and lower sea surface temperatures will begin to slowly weaken the system during the next 12 hours. Based on the current forecast 02W poses no threat to U.S. interests. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Initial attack activity Saturday was light with 92 new wildfires reported. There were two (2) new large fires. One (1) large fire was contained and firefighters continued fighting 18 uncontained large fires.

There are currently three (3) Type 1 Incident Management Teams (IMTs) committed and three (3) Type 2 IMTs committed.

Predictive Services Discussion: Dry conditions will continue over the Southeast with increased winds over central and southern Florida.

A critical fire weather area has been declared by the NOAA/Storm Prediction Center for southern and central Utah and northern Arizona on Monday due to 20-25 mph winds, low relative humidity, and long term drought conditions.

Sustained winds of 20-30 mph in the central and northern Plains will increase the threat of wildfires in the area extending from Oklahoma to the Dakotas and Minnesota.   
 (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)