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National Situation Update: Friday, May 18, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

West: Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are forecast for the high terrain in the northern Rockies. An upper level low will produce afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the southern Rockies and West Texas. Flood watches continue for parts of southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Local rainfall amounts over one inch may trigger localized flooding. A frontal system moving in off the Pacific will produce rain along the Washington and Oregon coasts tonight.

Midwest: High pressure will keep the Midwest precipitation free. However, frost and freeze warnings are posted across parts of southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Michigan, northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. In South Dakota a flood warning remains in effect for the James river near Huron, Forestburg, Mitchell, Scotland. A front will produce scattered thunderstorms from the Dakotas to Michigan.

South: Under high pressure the only rain in the region will be in southern Florida and western and southern Texas. A prevailing wind flow from the north and northeast may signal improvement for the smoky conditions along the coasts of South Carolina and Georgia but the smoke will increase again across the Florida Peninsula. This may include cities like Tampa and Orlando.

Northeast: A storm system moving up the East Coast will produce significant rain over parts of New England. A flood watch has been issued for parts of southern New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Many areas will see from two to four inches of rain but some isolated locations may see up to eight inches. Expect scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms  from Upstate New York to Virginia through Saturday. (NWS, Media Sources)

Florida Wildfires

Florida Bugaboo Fire: The Bugaboo Fire is 65% contained and covers approximately 180 square miles. Firefighters plan to burn out additional pockets of unburned vegetation near the existing firelines if conditions allow. The only road closed in the immediate area is U.S. Highway 441 from I-10 north to the state line and the exit ramps off of the I-10/Hwy 441 interchange. The next two days will be critical on the Florida Bugaboo Fire as winds pick up and relative humidity drops behind a cold front is crossing the state today. Cause: Lightning.

Dairy Road Fire: The Dairy Road Fire is in Bradford County. Total is presently at 15,000 acres. On May 8th, one residence was damaged and two outbuildings were destroyed.

Balsa Fire: The 18,027-acre Balsa Fire is in Collier County about 12 miles east of Naples.
Deland Complex: The Deland Complex is composed of three fires - the 6,575-acre WF Airport Road Fire in Flagler County (65% contained), the 850-acre Red Oak Fire in Lake County (95% contained) and the 2,600-acre Lee Fire in Lake County (55% contained).

Middle of Nowhere Fire: The 6,500-acre Middle of Nowhere Fire started on May 3rd in Charlotte County. General location is off Highway 31 behind Fire Station #9. Fire is in cypress swamp with heavy fuel. No immediate threat to structures.

BICY Complex-The fire is located in Big Cypress National Preserve near Sunniland, FL in Collier County.  It was started on May 4, 2007. The Strickland Fire, located north of I-75 and west of Levee 28 Interceptor Canal is estimated at 10,000 acres. The Midrest Fire, situated north of I-75 and west of the Strickland Fire is estimated at 3,900 acres. The FT6 Fire, located north of Highway 41 and east of the Florida National Scenic Trail is estimated at 1,900 acres. The Trail Fire located south of I-75 and north of the FT6 Fire is estimated at 450 acres. The HP Fire is estimated at 950 acres and is situated south of Highway 41, in the vicinity of Turner River Canoe Trail.

Fire Weather Outlook: Red Flag warnings have been issued for most of north Florida and the panhandle for Friday due to low RH values and possible breezy wind conditions, especially near the east coast. (Florida Division of Forestry http://www.fl-dof.com/)

Georgia Wildfire

Sweat Farm Road (Georgia Forestry Commission): 46,264 acres at 82 percent contained. This fire started on private land 10 miles southeast of Waycross. The state park remains threatened.

Big Turnaround Complex (Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge): 100,878 acres at 45 percent contained. This fire is 10 miles southeast of Waycross. Folkston and other surrounding communities remain threatened.

Bugaboo Scrub (Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge): 140,821 acres at an unknown percent contained. This fire is burning 16 miles west of Folkston. Numerous structures are threatened.

Bugaboo Scrub 2 (Georgia Forestry Commission): 3,768 acres at 30 percent contained. This fire is five miles east of Fargo. Several communities are threatened and highways are closed. Moderate fire activity was reported. (National Fire Information Center)

New Jersey Wildfire

Warren Grove: 19,122 acres at 30 percent contained. The fire is located 11 miles southwest of Atlantic City. (Region II, New Jersey Forest Fire Service)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean: No significant activity to report.

Eastern Pacific: No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific: At 2:00 am EDT May 18, Tropical Storm (TS) 02W (Yutu), was located approximately 680 miles west of Guam, and was tracking west-northwest at 20 mph. The system is forecast to continue moving west-northwest and increase in intensity over the next 12 hours and then begin recurving to the northeast. Based on the current forecast 02W poses no threat to Guam. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Nebraska: Public Assistance PDAs for 19 counties are scheduled to begin the week of May 21-25, 2007 for the Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding occurring on May 4, and continuing.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2 (On a scale from 1 to 5)

Initial attack activity: 294 (Moderate); New large fires: 0; Large fires contained: 1; Uncontained large fires: 19; Type 1 IMTs committed: 4, Type 2 IMTs committed: 3.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)