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National Situation Update: Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

West: The region will be warm and dry under a ridge of high pressure. The tail end of a frontal system extending from the Midwest will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over Colorado, Utah and New Mexico. High temperatures will range from the 50s in parts of the Rocky Mountains to over 100 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.

Midwest: A cold front extending from the Great Lakes to the Texas Panhandle will produce showers and thunderstorms across the region as the front drops southeastward. The northern portion of the front will be the most active with the potential for severe weather (thunderstorms with gusty winds hail and even tornadoes) in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. High temperatures will range from the 50s on the Upper Peninsula of Michigan to the 80s south of the front.

South: Under high pressure most of the region will be warm and dry. Southern Florida and the Gulf Coast will have scattered showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will range from the 60s in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles behind the front, to the 90s in portions of the Rio Grande Valley.

Northeast: Ahead of the Midwestern frontal system the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast will be dry and southwesterly winds will result in a warming trend. The approaching frontal system will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms a over northern New York state and northern New England. Highs are expected to range from the 50s in northern Maine to the 80s in the Mid-Atlantic. (NWS, Media Sources)

Midwest Flooding

Flooding continues along the James, Platte, Missouri and Grand Rivers. Locally heavy rainfall is expected in the Midwest today but all rivers are forecast to continue to fall. Most locations will fall below flood stage by Thursday. (NOAA, NWS)

Florida/Georgia Wildfires

Bugaboo Scrub Fire (Georgia): The fire remains 3-1/2 miles from Fargo at the closest point. It has not crossed Hwy 177, Perimeter or Council Roads. Reeves Landing still evacuated until further notice. The 1/2 inch of spotty rain was helpful in raising humidity but served mostly to settle the dust in the Fargo area. Buck Island received no rain. Crews got fire lines tied in and will continue buttoning them up today. Crews are having some problems with fire burning roots underground and weakening trees, so the road from Drag Line to Pine Island is closed due to danger of falling trees. Fire crews, along with private timber companies, are working along other flanks of the fire where conditions allow and are working to protect structures.

Bugaboo Scrub 2 (Georgia):  The Bugaboo Scrub fire has moved off Federal wilderness and refuge areas and now entering private and industry land in Georgia. Thi  s portion of the Bugaboo Fire is located 5 miles east of Fargo, GA.

Florida Bugaboo Wildfire:  Firefighters made good progress Sunday securing containment lines on both the southern and eastern flanks of the fire. Today, crews will be constructing line and reinforcing existing lines. Visibility is expected to improve today allowing for aggressive use of air resources. 102,500 acres at 30 percent contained. The fire is two miles east of Taylor. Communities and structures remain threatened. Extreme fire behavior was reported.  (SACC, FEMA Region IV)

California Wildfire

Catalina Island Fire: 4,750 acres burned at this time. Current containment is at 81%. Full containment is expected Tuesday evening. City of Avalon open to residents and visitors. Interior portions of the Island are closed to all.(Region IX)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Missouri PDAs for IA in 14 counties are scheduled to begin today.

South Dakota PDAs for PA in 20 counties are scheduled to being today. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2 (On a scale from 1 to 5) Initial attack activity: 147 (Light); New large fires: 5; Large fires contained: 1; Uncontained large fires: 26; Type 1 IMTs committed: 5.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)