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National Situation Update: Saturday, May 12, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

South
Thunderstorms were scattered across the South on Friday. Saturday will feature more scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorm may be more concentrated from the Carolinas to the Florida Panhandle ahead of an approaching front.

Fires continue to affect parts of southern Georgia and the Florida Peninsula. Air quality is low in many locations due to smoke and particulates in the air.  Thunderstorms will be scattered across parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida.
 
Northeast
The Middle Atlantic region will experience a few showers and thundershowers as a front moves slowly southward.
 
Midwest
Much of the Midwest will be in for calmer times. Most of the region will be dry on Saturday but a few thunderstorms may pop up across parts of South Dakota, western Iowa and southern Minnesota late in the day.

West
Most of the West will feel more like summer for the next several days. Heat advisories are expected in the Phoenix Valley, where another high around 105 degrees is likely Saturday.

A few thunderstorms are likely on Saturday afternoon and evening from the Cascades to the northern, central and southern Rockies.

Also, fire danger remains high in the Great Basin, Tetons and Wasatch. Thunderstorms in these areas may start wildfires due to lightning strikes, little rainfall, and shifting winds. (NWS, Media Sources)

Update - Flooding in the Plains States

As of Friday, Major flooding was ongoing and/or forecast on the Grand River in Missouri, the James River in South Dakota, the Missouri River in Missouri and Kansas, and the Platte River in Missouri.  Moderate flooding was ongoing and/or forecast for seven other rivers in parts of Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and South Dakota. (NOAA, NWS, Region V, Region VI, Region VII, Region VIII)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean: A small area of low pressure, the remnant of subtropical storm Andrea, is centered about 75 miles off the east coast of central Florida.  This system has been producing sporadic thunderstorm activity today but it lacks sufficient organization to qualify as a tropical cyclone.  While significant development is not anticipated, this system will be monitored for signs of tropical cyclone formation. 

Eastern Pacific: No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific: No significant activity to report. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity in the last 24 hours. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Iowa: Public Assistance PDAs in 14 counties were scheduled to begin on May 9, 2007.  Individual Assistance PDAs in 10 counties are scheduled to begin on May 14, 2007.

Missouri:  Individual Assistance PDAs in 14 counties are scheduled to begin on May 15, 2007, and Public Assistance PDAs in 14 counties are schedule to begin on May 21, 2007.

South Dakota:  Individual Assistance PDAs in 12 counties and Public Assistance PDAs in 20 counties are scheduled to begin on May 15, 2007 (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2 (On a scale from 1 to 5)

Initial attack activity through Thursday was Light, with 165 fires. Three new large fires, one large fire contained. There are 23 uncontained large fires, and three Type 1 IMTs committed.

Florida:  The State EOC is fully activated. The State of Florida reports that wildfires are actively burning in 54 of the 67 Florida counties affecting approximately 87,162 acres statewide.

Georgia: The State EOC is activated at Level 1, normal operations.  As of 11:00 p.m. EDT on May 10, total fire acreage in Georgia had increased from approximately 195,400 acres to 217,858, an increase of 22,458 acres in 24 hours.  The Georgia Forestry Commission is managing the wildfires.  Georgia Emergency Management Agency (GEMA) is monitoring the situation.

The Bugaboo Fire that originated in Georgia and crossed state lines into Florida is moving southward toward the US Highway 441/Interstate-10 intersection, unexpectedly placing residents and property into immediate danger.  The fire is expected to arrive near Lake City (Columbia County) sometime today.  Little rainfall is forecast through tonight and dry air inhibits thunderstorm development.  Sustained winds for coastal northeast Florida and southeast last night were expected to be 25 to 45 mph and gusts to 45 mph.  Winds of 5-15 mph are predicted across the rest of Florida with gusts up to 20 mph. Mandatory evacuation will be required east of Highway 441. Voluntary evacuation will be required west of Highway 441, and north of I-10. Evacuees will be sheltered in Live Oak.

Catalina Island Fire, Catalina Island, Los Angeles County.   Per the Southern REOC, the voluntary evacuation order has been lifted for residents; however the mandatory evacuation order for visitors remains in affect. The Long Beach Shelter is closing at 1700 hours and residents are departing at 1745 hours to return back to Catalina. At 5:00 p.m. PDT, Los Angeles County is shifting their activation to Duty Officer status for the weekend.  The power is still down across most of the island outside of Avalon.  At this time CDHS does not expect any impacts from this fire to the water system.

The Ham Lake Fire continues to spread in the Ham Lake area, Cook County, Minnesota. Ham Lake is approximately 49 miles NW of Grand Marias, Minnesota. 54,000 acres are currently affected. The fire area is 5% contained. The US Forest Service reports 47 structures destroyed. There are no reported injuries, deaths or missing persons. The cause of this blaze is unknown. This fire has spread into Canada and a Unified Command has been established. The State reports that most evacuees have returned to primary residences or are with family and friends. The State EOC is not activated. No FEMA assistance has been requested by the State of Minnesota.

To date, four Fire Management Assistance Grants (FMAGs) have been issued for Georgia and five issued for Florida. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President signed FEMA-1700-DR for the State of Connecticut on May 11, 2007.  The declaration is for severe storms and flooding that occurred April 15-27, 2007.  The FCO will be Michael L. Parker of the National FCO Program. The declaration includes Fairfield and Litchfield counties designated for Public Assistance.  All counties in the State of Connecticut are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

FEMA-1699-DR-KS was amended on May 11, 2007 to add Edwards, Pratt, and Stafford counties for Individual Assistance. (FEMA HQ)