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National Situation Update: Thursday, May 10, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

West: A stationary front will produce showers and isolated thunderstorms over Oregon, Montana, Idaho and Wyoming. Late this afternoon and tonight the thunderstorms over Montana will become severe. Warm, dry weather is forecast for the desert southwest.

Midwest: The northern portion of the frontal system extending from the Great Lakes to Texas is weak so the precipitation in the Midwest and Plains will be confined to southern Illinois, Missouri and eastern Kansas. No significant rainfall amounts are forecast so the recession of rivers and streams in flooded areas will continue.  Isolated thunderstorms and showers are forecast for parts of Kentucky and eastern Ohio.  The southern portion of the frontal system extending from the Great Lakes to Texas is very active and will produce scattered heavy downpours and thunderstorms (a few severe) in the eastern two-thirds of Texas, much of Oklahoma, northern Louisiana and Arkansas. Local flooding is possible.

South: Gusty winds and rain showers from Subtropical Storm Andrea are forecast from Florida to North Carolina. Andrea is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of one-half to one inch along coastal areas of the southeastern U.S. A few showers or storms may develop over northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and the southern Appalachians.

Northeast: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for New York and Pennsylvania. (NWS, Media Sources)

Response to Kansas Tornadoes

Residents of Greensburg have been allowed access to their properties between 8 am to 8 pm daily with a night-time curfew.  Locations are being identified for the placement of temporary housing units. 

The Kansas Department of Transportation is continuing to clean streets and removing debris from easements.

There are two American Red Cross shelters open in Kiowa County (Haviland and Mullinville High Schools) with a current total of 71 persons sheltered.  In Greensburg, there are 3 mobile feeding canteens to feed disaster workers and returning residents.  Residents of the Greensburg assisted living facility were evacuated to care facilities in Wichita, El Dorado, Augusta and to family homes.

The Army National Guard is setting up a mobile feeding kitchen to expand the number of meals being provided in Greensburg.  There have been 11,444 meals served to date.  A mobile office building is being planned to house public and mental health facilities in Greensburg.

The National Forest Service is setting up a 300 person base camp in the City Park to support disaster workers.  The base camp will include lodging, meals, showers, toilet facilities, fueling, security and laundry services.  The base camp construction is projected to be 90 percent complete by COB May 10, 2007.

Adequate shelter space is not available to ensure the safety of everyone working in the City Limits of Greensburg. The National Weather Service has been Mission Assigned to provide an on-scene forecaster in Greensburg to insure maximum warning time and to give possible evacuation instructions from continuing severe weather threats. (Region VII)

Flooding in the Central Plains

Moderate to major flooding continues on many rivers from the Dakotas south to Texas.
As of late Wednesday afternoon, an upper level low pressure system centered over southern New Mexico combined with a weak frontal boundary across central Texas and Oklahoma into the middle Mississippi Valley was triggering the development of thunderstorms over the Southern Plains.  This front is forecast to weaken further in time.  Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated heavier amounts are possible through Thursday.
Major flooding is forecast at several points along the Arkansas River (Kansas), Grand River (Missouri), Missouri River (Missouri), Platte River (Missouri), and James River (South Dakota).  The most recent river crest forecasts are generally a bit lower than previous forecasts.

South Dakota -Major flooding on the James River, comparable to the flood of 2001; 1997 was generally the "big" flood for the James.  No drinking water problems.  Main impact is road closures. 

Iowa -Flooding and flash flooding continues to impact communities along the Missouri, Nishnabotna and Boyer Rivers, as well as tributaries and streams in western Iowa.  I-29 is closed at Iowa mile marker 10 to Atchison County, MO due to flood waters over highway.

Missouri -Flood waters cover thousands of acres of agricultural land, numerous state highways and county roads.  Many (five to 10, perhaps more) agricultural levees had been topped.
Most points along the Missouri and James Rivers will be in flood for at least one week.  The lower portion of the Missouri rose above flood stage today (at St. Charles, Missouri) and should also remain in flood for at least a week, falling below flood stage the weekend after next.
Platte County was discussing shutting down the railroad track and portions of Interstate 29. 
A major break of a levee on the Grand River in Carroll County resulted in 15,000 acres being flooded. In Clay County, 70 homes were affected by flood waters. 
A levee break near Sibley resulted in a temporary lowering of the stage at Waverly which was rising again, but not to the moderate level it was at Tuesday.  
The crest is expected to reach Jefferson City, Missouri Friday night with major flooding beginning there Thursday, including inundation of the airport and state highways.

Kansas -Flooding continues to impact communities along the Missouri, Kansas, Arkansas Rivers.  Thirty three counties have declared emergencies as a result of flooding.  State, county and local roads, culverts and low-water crossings were washed out. 
Four breaks occurred along an agricultural dike in the Haven area on the Arkansas River.

Illinois -The state's areas of concern are Gale and Thebes in Alexander County along the Mississippi River

Oklahoma -Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry declared a State of Emergency Monday for all 77 counties as a result of the tornadoes, torrential rainfall and flooding which has impacted the state since May 4th.  Over 9 inches of rain has fallen in one spot near Tulsa, while amounts of 3 to over 7 inches were common elsewhere in the central and eastern part of the state.  (NOAA, NWS, Region V, Region VI, Region VII, Region VIII)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean: At 5:00 am EDT the center of subtropical storm Andrea was located about 135 miles south-southeast of Savannah Georgia and about 100 miles northeast of Daytona beach Florida. The storm is drifting southwestward and little motion is expected for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts some weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles to the east of the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb / 29.62 inches.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia southward to Flagler beach Florida. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within the next 36 hours.

For the latest information on Subtropical Storm Andrea, including advisories, tracking maps, and satellite and radar images, go to http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/tropical/atlantic/

Eastern Pacific: No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific: No significant activity to report. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

South Dakota:  Individual assistance PDAs for 12 counties are scheduled to start on May 12, 2007. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2  (On a scale from 1 to 5)
Light fire activity persisted throughout the states with 57 new fires reported. Ten new large fires were reported in Florida. One large fire reached containment. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1692-DR-NY is amended effective May 9, 2007.  Amendment 1 adds Ulster County for Individual Assistance and Montgomery County for Public Assistance.

FEMA-1693-DR-ME is amended effective May 9, 2007.  Amendment 1 adds Cumberland and York Counties for Individual Assistance. (FEMA HQ)