• Emergency Managers and Personnel
• Situation Reports
• National Incident Management System
• Grants & Assistance Programs
• Training
• Contacts
• Planning
• Best Practices

National Situation Update: Thursday, April 5, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Northeast
Winter storm warnings are widespread across Northern New England.
In much of the Northeast expect cold winds and snow. Snow will be heaviest from the Adirondacks of New York through Maine. Parts of Maine will see snow all day, with well over a foot expected.
Snow showers, including lake-effect snow squalls, will be common in most locations north of the Mason-Dixon Line and in West Virginia.
The big cities of the Northeast will see only flurries, but several inches of snow are possible in and around northwest Pennsylvania and at the eastern end of Lake Ontario.

Midwest
Parts of Michigan are under blizzard warnings as lake-effect snow showers continue. Portions of Michigan's Upper Peninsula have already seen over a foot and a half of snow. Moisture from Lake Superior will continue to enhance the snowfall over the next several days. An additional foot or more of snow is likely in some areas through Saturday.
Gusty winds, frequently over 20 mph, are likely will continue across the Great Lakes States, especially Michigan and Ohio.
Farther west, on the Great Plains, light rain and snow showers will occur across Kansas, western and central Nebraska, and western South Dakota.

South
Dry and relatively cool weather for the season will prevail in most of the South.
Southern Florida is likely to see a scattering of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front moves across the area.
Early morning temperatures may start out near freezing across northern Oklahoma, northern Arkansas and Tennessee, but by afternoon readings will range from the 50s to the 80s, north to south.

West
Most of the West will remain dry; however isolated showers may occur in the Sierras and a few rain or snow showers may affect parts of Montana, northern and eastern Wyoming, Colorado and northeast New Mexico. One or two thunderstorms may materialize over the higher mountains. (NWS, Media Sources)

Hurricane Center Director says Season Likely to be above Normal

The director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Wednesday a busy Atlantic hurricane season was likely this year.

Speaking at the annual National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans, hurricane center director Bill Proenza said signs pointed to a stronger year for storms than in 2006 when only five hurricanes formed in the six-month season.

The El Nino weather pattern that suppressed hurricane development last year has diminished, and wind patterns appear to be shifting in a way that would lead tropical systems toward land rather than keeping them at sea, center director Bill Proenza said at the National Hurricane Conference

"It's still playing out as to how that forecast is going to be put together but at the same time I think the trend is definitely toward more active at this point," he said.

His comments came a day after the closely watched prediction of Colorado State University hurricane forecaster William Gray and his team, who said they expected 17 tropical storms, nine of which would become hurricanes, in a very active season.

Proenza said the National Hurricane Center would issue its official, more definitive, forecast for 2007 in the third week in May. Hurricane season begins June 1 and lasts for six months.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean: No significant activity to report.

Eastern Pacific: No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific: No significant activity to report.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

The Solomon Islands continue to experience earthquakes related to the April first magnitude 8.1 quake and resulting tsunami. Two earthquakes, detected April 4 at 6.0 and 6.2 magnitudes, are the latest in a total of 47 magnitude 5 or greater quakes experienced in the area over the last five days.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Public Assistance PDAs that began on March 30, 2007, for four counties in Maine, are continuing.  The PDAs are expected to be completed by COB Friday. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level I - there is minimal large fire activity nationally. Most geographic areas have low to moderate fire danger. There is little or no commitment of national fire management resources.

National Fire Activity as of 4 April, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: Light (129 new fires)
• New large fires: 2
• Large fires contained: 1
• Uncontained large fires: 4  (NIFC)
  

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1690-DR-NM, declared April 2, has established an Interim Operating Facility (IOF) in Clovis, New Mexico. GSA has been activated to locate a JFO. (FEMA HQ)