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National Situation Update: Wednesday, April 4, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Northeast
A sharp cold front will push eastward through the region, bringing colder temperatures, rain and some thunderstorms. Parts of northern New England will see a wintry mix, changing to snow by evening.
Six to ten inches of snow may fall around parts of New Hampshire and interior sections of Maine.

Midwest
Much of the Great Lakes and Midwest will feel a dramatic drop in temperature by Wednesday morning. Wind gusts may reach 40 mph and snow showers will be frequent around the Great Lakes; parts of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan may see up to 2 feet of snow early today, and some counties are under blizzard warnings. Cleveland, Ohio reached a record high of 80 degrees on Tuesday and will probably see snow by tonight.

South
Showers and strong thunderstorms will stretch from the eastern Carolinas to the Florida Panhandle, and parts of southern Texas. A strong cold front will pass through the South, returning the region to wintry temperatures, especially across the Southeast.

West
Rain showers and light, spotty snow are expected in the Pacific Northwest mountains and the northern Rockies, while the rest of the West will be dry and mild. (NWS, Media Sources)

Active Hurricane Season Predicted for 2007

The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," with nine hurricanes. There is a good chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast, top researcher Dr. William Gray said Tuesday. He has spent more than 40 years in tropical weather research, and heads the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State. A leading expert in forecasting hurricanes, Dr. Gray and his team expect 17 named storms this year and nine hurricanes, five of them major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast this year is 74 percent, compared with the average of 52 percent over the past century, he said. The team's forecasts are based on global oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

Last year, Gray's forecast and government forecasts were higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced. Gray's research team at Colorado State University said an unexpected late El Nino contributed to the calmer season last year. El Nino -- a warming in the Pacific Ocean -- has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes there. "Conditions this year are likely to be more conducive to hurricanes," said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team. In the absence of El Nino, "winds aren't tearing the storm systems apart."

There were 9 named Atlantic storms in 2006 and five hurricanes, two of them major, in what was considered a "near normal" season. None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast -- only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945. The National Hurricane Center in Miami originally reported nine storms, but upgraded one storm after a postseason review, upping the total to 10 storms worthy of naming.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year. The devastating 2005 season set a record with 28 named storms, 15 of them hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes hit the U.S. coast, the worst among them Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and leveled parts of the Gulf Coast region. (Media Sources, NOAA)

Severe Weather throughout South Central States

Arkansas:  Denton MOC reported a tornado touched down near Jonesboro, Arkansas at approximately 8:10 pm EDT, April 3, 2007. One 6,000 sq foot metal building was damaged, and two cargo trailers were overturned.

Tennessee:  Cumberland County sheriff's office reported a mobile home was destroyed in the Lake Tansi area by a possible tornado.

Kentucky:  Winds downed power lines and trees in numerous counties (Region VI, Climate Prediction Center Storm Reports)

Levee Surveys Begin in California

On Friday, March 30th, 2007 the State of California began an aerial survey of the State's 350 mile levee system using helicopters flying at low levels to look for weaknesses and other problems.

The Department of Water Resources reported that flights will range from Lathrop to Marysville over a seven-day period, and will take place along the Feather River, Bear River, American River, Sutter Bypass, Sacramento River, Stanislaus River, San Joaquin River and their tributaries. (Region IX) 

Avalanche Activity

Juneau, Alaska: The avalanche danger level has been lowered to MODERATE (on a scale of low-moderate-serious-high) for urban paths near Mt. Juneau only. (Southeast Alaska Avalanche Center)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean: No significant activity to report.

Eastern Pacific: No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific: The tropical storm warning for The Northern Mariana Islands of Agrihan (including Pagan) has been cancelled. No watches or warnings are now in effect. Typhoon Kong-Rey continues to move north away from U.S. interests. A Region IX three-person advance team arrived in Guam Monday evening and will meet with representatives from the CNMI and Guam. The typhoon caused minor power outages on Saipan, particularly Kagman, Dandan, and the entire southern part of the island. The Department of Public Safety said no casualties were reported. There were also no major accidents or flooding. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

California: A minor earthquake was reported in central California at 8:32 pm EDT.  The 3.0 magnitude earthquake was 1 mile from Bishop, California, and 8.8 miles in depth.

Solomon Islands and New Guinea: Numerous aftershocks continue following the 8.1 magnitude earthquake that occurred in the Solomon Islands and New Guinea on Sunday, April 1.  A 6.0 and a 6.2 magnitude earthquake occurred Tuesday, April 3, at a depth of about 6.2 miles. No tsunami bulletin was generated.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Public Assistance PDAs that began on March 30, 2007, for four counties in Maine, are continuing.  The PDAs are expected to be completed by COB Friday. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level I - there is minimal large fire activity nationally. Most geographic areas have low to moderate fire danger. There is little or no commitment of national fire management resources.

National Fire Activity as of 3 April, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: Light (179 new fires)
• New large fires: 2
• Large fires contained: 0
• Uncontained large fires: 3  (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On April 2, 2007 the President signed a Disaster Declaration, FEMA-1690-DR. GSA has been activated to locate a JFO; ERT-A staff has been deployed to Clovis, New Mexico.(FEMA HQ)