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National Situation Update: Saturday, March 24, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Update

South:  Western Texas will have another round of thunderstorms March 24, 2007.  Additional severe thunderstorms and local inch-plus downpours are likely.  Persistent easterly winds along the Atlantic beaches of Florida will generate a high rip current threat March 24, 2007. The easterly winds will subside March 25, 2007, lessening the threat.

Midwest:  The threat for severe thunderstorms, including hail and tornadoes, will encompass the central Plains March 24, 2007 with the heaviest thunderstorms extending from Iowa to Ohio.  High temperatures will be a warm springy 5 to 25 degrees above average region-wide. Snow melt in the Upper Midwest will locally enhance river flooding.

Northeast:  A disturbance from Ontario will move through the Northeast March 24, 2007 and early March 25, 2007, bringing some snow or rain changing to snow to New York and New England plus more showers to the Mid-Atlantic.  Milder weather will keep melting that snow pack and will cause some river flooding, especially along the upper sections of the Susquehanna and its tributaries.

West:  An upper-level low will arrive in northeastern Colorado by this evening (March 24, 2007) and showers, thunderstorms and mountain snow will also shift northward.
By March 25, 2007, the showers will leave Colorado, but a new disturbance will produce additional showers in southern New Mexico.  A new Pacific system and front will move across the Northwest this weekend moving into the northern Plains but leaving showers behind across southern Idaho and Wyoming.   (NWS, Media Sources)

New Mexico Tornadoes

Two Tornados touched down near Logan, NM in Harding Co. on March 23, 2007 at about 7:30 pm EDT.  Initial reports are that several homes were destroyed and 3 people were injured.

The New Mexico Department of Emergency Management (NMDEM) is monitoring the situation. An update from NMDEM on March 24, 2007 at 12:45 am EDT states that another tornado touched down in the Clovis and Village of Texico vicinity. Some damage and minor injuries are reported.  Local damage assessments will be accomplished after daylight.   (FEMA MERS/DENTON, NMDEM)

Tornadoes Sweep Through New Mexico, Destroying 2 Dozen Homes And Injuring At Least 3

A tornado destroyed roughly two dozen mobile homes and campers and injured at least three people Friday, March 23, 2007 as it swept through this New Mexico village, state police said.  Hours later, another tornado rumbled through another community to the south, forecasters said. It was not immediately known if there were any injuries or property damage.

In Logan, three people were taken to a hospital in nearby Tucumcari, while others were treated at a local clinic, a State Police Sergeant said. Their conditions were not immediately available.

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque said a tornado touched down shortly after 4:00 pm EDT. Forecasters said another twister touched down around 6:30 pm EDT in Crossroads, about 128 miles to the south. Forecasters did not know how strong either twister was.  The most severe damage was reported on the south side of Logan, a village located near the New Mexico-Texas border.

Authorities planned to cut off utility service to aid rescue crews and help with cleanup efforts and were instructing people seeking shelter to head to a gymnasium at Logan High School.   (Media Sources)

SD Spring Flooding Update

The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued flood warnings for the following areas of SD as a result of snow melt and runoff:

The James River at Mitchell (2000 population - 14,558), Davison County (2000 population - 18,741) and Hanson County (2000 population - 3,139) for minor flooding.  River stage on March 23, 2007 was 18.3 feet ( flood stage is 17.0 feet).  At 17 feet the lower banks overflow with minor flooding of lowland agricultural lands.

The James River near Scotland (2000 population - 891), Bon Homme County (2000 population - 7,260) for minor flooding.  River stage on March 23, 2007 was 13.4 feet (flood stage is 13.0 feet).  At stages near 14 feet about 4400 acres of farm land are flooded between Mitchell and Yankton.

There is no request for Federal Assistance.  (FEMA Region VIII)

ND Spring Flooding Update

The NWS flood warning remains for the Red River at Fargo (2000 population - 90,672), Cass County (2000 population - 123,138) for minor flooding.  The river stage on March 23, 2007 was 19.2 feet (flood stage is 18.0 feet).  The river is expected to slowly rise and crest at 21.0 feet on March 26 or 27, 2007.  At 20.6 feet the North Broadway Bridge is closed as a precaution.

The Red River at Wahpeton (2000 population - 8,220), Richland County (2000 population - 17,998) for minor flooding.  The river stage on March 23, 2007 was 10.2 feet (flood stage is 10.0 feet).  The river is expected to rise to 10.5 feet on March 24, 2007 and slowly fall below flood stage by March 27.

The NWS has issued a flood statement forecasting the Missouri River at Williston (2000 population - 12,512), Williams County (2000 population - 19,761), to rise above flood stage due to snowmelt runoff and river ice.  The river stage on March 23, 2007 was 19.8 feet (flood stage is 20.0 feet).  The river is forecast to rise another 0.5 to 1.0 feet.

There are no request for Federal Assistance at this time.  (FEMA Region VIII)

Juneau, AK Avalanche Risk

More than 60 homes, a busy boat harbor and sections of a main thoroughfare in Alaska's capital city are considered at risk from at least a dozen chutes that sweep off the steep and burly shoulders of Mount Juneau. Small slides let loose all the time, but the only reported death was in 1971, when a mountain climber hiked up into an avalanche path and was buried in a slide that he triggered.

The costliest slide on record, in March 1962, was an airborne blast of powdery snow that blew off roofs, knocked houses off their foundations and hurled trees through walls and windows. No one was seriously hurt, though 17 homes had significant damage.  Specialists say it is only a matter of time before another big one hits Juneau, and it could make the 1962 slide look insignificant.

But measures such as snow barriers and property buyouts or condemnation have proved beyond the city's financial and political reach. Juneau officials say all they can do is urge residents to stay informed and be prepared to leave their homes if the danger is high.
To that end, the city this year funded an urban avalanche forecasting office - the only one in North America - that will operate through April.

The Southeast Alaska Avalanche Center Director and a staff of three combine observations at ground level and higher elevations with weather reports and historical information to build the daily forecasts. So far, there have been several slides this season, but none reached homes.

Avalanche forecasting is common in Europe. In Iceland, when the danger gets too high, citizens are required to evacuate. The city of Juneau doesn't have the legal authority to do that, and if it tried, the Avalanche Center Director predicts the backlash would shut down his program.

The only long-term solution, he said, is a voluntary buyout of homes in danger. Experts say that would cost a fraction of the price of snow barriers, which are imperfect anyway, since they can be breached and can actually destabilize the slopes.   (Media Sources)

Guam Earthquake

The US Geological Survey recorded a magnitude 4.6 earthquake, Friday, March 23, 2007 at 4:22 pm EDT.  The earthquake was located 60 miles west of Hagatna, Guam, at a depth of 80.1 miles.  At that depth, there were no discernable impacts to populations or infrastructure in the region.   (FEMA Region IX, USGS)

Earthquake/Tsunami Activity

No significant activity.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Eastern Pacific: No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific: Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within the next 12 to 24 hours; available data does not justify issuance of numbered tropical Cyclone warnings at this time. Located approximately 218 miles northwest of Nadi, Fiji, the system is almost stationary. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The National Preparedness Level is 1 (Lowest on a scale of 1 to 5).  There were 28 new Large Wildfires and 21 Contained Large Wildfires during the past 24 hours.  (NIFC, NICC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)