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National Situation Update: Saturday, February 24, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Midwest:  An intensifying storm will move from southeast Colorado to northern Missouri today with heavy snow, severe thunderstorms, heavy rain and powerful winds.
The storm will then move over the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley tomorrow.

Heavy snow will develop from western Nebraska to Minnesota and Wisconsin this morning, possibly mixed with sleet at the start.

Rain and thunderstorms will change to snow from west to east across Kansas and central and eastern Nebraska later today and tonight. Strong winds, gusting to over 50 mph at times, in these areas will create blizzard conditions.

A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will develop south of this snow zone from northern and eastern Iowa to northern Illinois and northern Indiana including Chicago during the day.

On the south side of the storm severe thunderstorms will erupt in the central Plains and spread into the mid-Mississippi Valley today.   The threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will impact Kansas this morning and Missouri south of a Kansas City-St. Louis line a little later in the day.  Heavy rain will be likely in the lower Missouri Valley.

Tomorrow, the threat for heavy snow and gusty winds (possibly blizzard conditions) will remain across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes including Lower Michigan, with rain changing to snow across parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Snow accumulations could exceed a foot over parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

South:  With temperatures near or above average, moisture returning and a big windy storm tracking from Kansas to the Midwest, severe thunderstorms are forecast strike the southern high Plains and then sweep eastward.

From Oklahoma and northern Texas this morning, individual severe thunderstorms will combine to produce a squall line that will move rapidly into the lower Mississippi River Valley. Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are all possible.

Behind the thunderstorms and the lagging cold front, winds will gust to between 50 and 60 mph in the southern high Plains today.

By tonight, thunderstorms will shift east of the Mississippi River into Tennessee, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Although, damaging wind gusts and hail will still be possible, the overall severe threat will be diminishing.  By tomorrow, thunderstorms will move through the Southeast, but the overall risk for additional severe storms should be low during the latter part of the weekend.

Northeast:  After a chilly day, part of the big storm will move through the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow into Monday with the cold air still in place.

Several inches of snow is expected to blanket southern New York, northern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Cape Cod.

A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain will glaze much of the remainder of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and northern and western Virginia.  Virginia and Pennsylvania will conduct conference calls with their state agencies, counties and various National Weather Service offices.  The calls are in preparation for the winter storm system forecast for Sunday.  Region III will also participate on the conference calls.

West:  The storm intensifying over the central U.S. today will bring blizzard conditions to eastern Colorado and more dust-producing wind gusts in eastern New Mexico.

As the high Plains quiet down by tonight, the next storm will be in the Pacific Northwest with rain from western Washington to northern California and snow from the Cascades and northern Sierra into the northern Rockies.

Tomorrow through Tuesday, additional disturbances will move into the West with rain slowly edging southward through the remainder of California.    (NWS, Media Sources)

Maine Propane Gas Shortage Update:

Bad weather slowed a tanker carrying 12 million gallons of propane that was due to arrive Thursday in Providence, R.I. The tanker is now due on Saturday, said a spokesman for Maine Gov. John Baldacci.

A few rail cars carrying propane have arrived in Maine, but a strike against the Canadian National railroad continues to cause disruptions.

TEPPCO restarted a portion of its 20-inch, 240,000 b/d petroleum products pipeline system in Indiana after receiving regulatory approval from the U.S. Department of Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration.  The pipeline segment from Seymour, Indiana to Lebanon, Ohio was shut on Tuesday, February 20, 2007 when a faulty valve caused a diesel fuel spill.  This will have a minor positive impact since Maine still receives a majority of its propane supplies via Canadian rail.

Maine has been hardest hit in New England because it gets 60 percent to 70 percent of its propane via rail. (FEMA Region I)

Winooski River Ice Jam

Vermont Emergency Management is preparing a new press release advising area residents and plow contractors not to dump snow into the Winooski river because of an ice jam.

A formal request was made to the USGS to reposition their satellite in order to provide overhead imagery and photos to assist Vermont in monitoring the ice jam. 

If this request is approved, it will provide overhead photos in "real time." Vermont will be better able to monitor the jam and make predictions concerning the possibility of flooding (or lack thereof).  (FEMA Region I)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG #2682 was issued on February 24, 2007 to New Mexico for a 700 acre wildfire near the town of Belen in Valencia County (about 30 miles south-southwest of Albuquerque).  The fire is 0% contained.

The fire is burning on private land, however about 400 people have been evacuated.  One hundred and fifty homes, a powerline, and a sewage treatment plant are threatened by the fire.  There are two shelters and several churches opened.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Eastern Pacific: No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific: No activity threatening U.S. Territories. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There was a magnitude 6.2 earthquake that struck 420 miles north-northwest of Lima, Peru at 9:36 pm EST.  There were no reports of tsunamis generated.

There was no significant activity in the United States. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

No significant activity.

National preparedness level is 1 (lowest on a 1-5 scale). (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1684-DR-PA was declared on February 23, 2007, for Severe Storms and Flooding from November 16-17, 2006.  Seven counties were approved for Public Assistance.  All counties are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

FEMA-1685-DR-LA was declared on February 23, 2007, for Severe Storms and Tornadoes, from February 12-13, 2007.  Three parishes were approved for Individual Assistance.  Three parishes are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

FEMA-3273-EM-NY was declared on February 23, 2007, for  Snow from February 2 - 12, 2007.  Public Assistance (Category B), including snow removal assistance, was approved for three counties.   (FEMA HQ)