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National Situation Update: Friday, February 9, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West: A Pacific low pressure system will produce precipitation along much of the West Coast through the weekend. Northern and central California will get an inch or more of rain with 1-to-2-feet of snow above 6,500 feet in the northern Sierras. Snow will continue in the Rockies with occasional light snow spreading into the northern High Plains.

Midwest: A band of light snow, with accumulations of 1-to-3-inches,  will extend across South Dakota, eastern Nebraska, Iowa and northern Missouri. Temperatures will continue to be below average and a lake-effect snow will fall downwind from Lakes Superior and Michigan.

South: A weak weather disturbance aloft will move through the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. The result will be light snow, sleet and freezing from Arkansas to northern Georgia, to Upstate South Carolina and southwest North Carolina.

Northeast: Lake-effect snow will continue east of Lake Ontario through the weekend with the main band shifting north and south through the period. With current snow totals just southeast of Lake Ontario as high as 7 feet, another foot or two of snow could produce record lake-effect totals for Upstate New York this weekend. Temperatures will remain extremely cold for the next several days. (NWS, Media Sources)

The Cause of Lake Effect Snow

There are a two main ingredients needed to produce lake effect snow.

1. A relatively warm body of water. 

2. A source of cold air.  In the Great Lakes Region, that source comes from the high latitudes of North America where arctic airmasses often "spill southward" over those warm bodies of water.  Heat and moisture from the warm lakes rises into the "modified" arctic air where it then cools and condenses into snow clouds. 

The prevailing wind direction through the depth of the snow clouds determines where the snow will occur. (National Weather Service Forecast Office,  Buffalo NY)

FEMA Regional Activity Reports

Region I:

• No new significant information to report.

Region II:

• A Weather Emergency due to freezing temperatures is still in effect in New York City, with the Office of Emergency Management (OEM) standing up their Emergency Operations Center (EOC).  City agencies and volunteer organizations are working to get the homeless off of streets and into shelters.
  
• Westerly winds blowing across the relatively warm waters of Lake Ontario, since Sunday February 4, have produced prolonged periods of heavy lake-effect snow across counties east of Lake Ontario in Upstate New York.
  
• The greatest snowfall totals across Upstate New York from Sunday through early Thursday afternoon include:
      Parish (Oswego County) 88 inches
      North Osceola (Lewis County) 77 inches
      Mexico (Oswego County) 76 inches
      Oswego (Oswego County) 59.5 inches
  
• Another 10 to 15 inches of snow is likely to fall across portions of Oswego, Lewis, and Jefferson counties through Feb. 9, with additional significant snow accumulations possible across the area through the weekend. 

Region III:

• All state Emergency Operations Centers (EOC's) are currently at normal operating levels. Emergency Management officials remain vigilant for extreme winter weather conditions, and are postured to respond when necessary.

Region IV:

• No new significant information to report.

Region V:

• Continuous bitter cold (single digit and below zero temperatures) and dangerously low wind chills (minus 5 to minus 35) continue. 
  
• The river flooding situation across the Region has improved with all locations below Flood Stage. Some hydrological gauges are being affected by icing and provide false readings, showing the river in Major Flood stage. These locations are being monitored.

Region VI:

• No new significant information to report.

Region VII:

• Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) (FEMA-1676-DR-MO) for Individual Assistance will continue this week.
  
• On Feb. 8, at approximately 12:15 pm EST, a second explosion occurred at the Chemcentral plant. Officials have evacuated a six-block (½ mile) area around the scene.
  
• Local officials were just about to reopen the area to residents when the second explosion occurred.  There were no reports of injuries.
  
• EPA and local health officials will continue to collect air monitoring data in strategic locations throughout the Kansas City metropolitan area. EPA investigated outfalls to the Missouri River and determined runoff from the site is directed to the waste water treatment plant.

Region VIII:

• No new significant information to report.

Region IX:

• No new significant information to report.

Region X:

• No new significant information to report. (FEMA Regions I-X, FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

The most significant activity in the last 24 hours was a Light (magnitude 4.3) earthquake on Wednesday February 8, 2007 at 10:33 pm EST.  The epicenter was located 5 miles north northwest of Ocotillo Wells, CA. at a depth of 3.7 miles. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

President Bush signed a major disaster declaration FEMA-1680-FL on February 8, 2007, for the State of Florida due to severe storms, tornadoes and flooding.  The incident period was December 25, 2006. The disaster declaration designates Volusia County eligible to apply for assistance to individuals and households under the Individual Assistance (IA) Program. All counties in the State of Florida are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Additional designations may be made at a later date after further evaluation.  Jesse Munoz has been designated as the Federal Coordinating Officer.

FEMA-1675-DR-KS was amended effective February 8, 2007 adding Hamilton County for emergency protective measures.  (FEMA HQ)