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National Situation Update: Friday, February 2, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

South
In Florida, a cold front brings the threat of showers and thunderstorms today, Saturday and Sunday.

Cold air will sweep eastward from the southern Plains to the Southeast Coast over the next three days.

Rainfall will be confined to the lower Rio Grande, immediate Gulf Coast, southernmost Georgia, Florida and the coastal Carolinas over the weekend.

Midwest
Very cold arctic air will dominate the Plains and Midwest well into next week. In the core of the frigid air, temperatures will be 10 to 30 degrees below average. From the Dakotas to the western Great Lakes, low temperatures will be in the minus teens and minus 20s with highs close to zero.

Gusty winds today and Saturday and again on Monday will produce dangerously low wind chills.

A persistent west to northwest flow over Lakes Superior, Michigan and Erie will steadily pile up additional snow over Upper Michigan, western Lower Michigan and northeast Ohio.

Lighter snow is expected for the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys as well as parts of the Plains.

Northeast
New York City and Boston is forecast for an inch or two of snow.

Light snow from the Great Lakes eastward into northern New England and southward into the central Appalachians.

West
Arctic air will surge southward through the Rockies and high Plains overnight and Friday accompanied by bursts of heavy snow.

Highs Friday over the Rockies and high Plains will be 10 to 35 degrees below average.
Gusty northeast winds will return for a short time to the higher elevations of Southern California Saturday. (NWS, Media Sources)

FEMA Regional Activity Reports

Region I: 
New England weather northeast & central Massachusetts; Rhode Island; interior Connecticut - up to 4 inches of snowfall is possible today.

Connecticut: Governor Jodi Rell said that she will reappoint James Thomas as Commissioner of the Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security. Mr. Thomas is the first commissioner to run the agency, which merged the Office of Emergency Management with the Homeland Security Division of the State Police in 2005. (Hartford Courant)

Region II:
The Caribbean Division (CD) continues to monitor the situation related to the Palo Seco Power Generating Plant; a contingency plan is being developed and staffed at the R&R Division office. 

Region III:
All Region III States are at normal operating levels and closely monitoring the potential for snow. 

Pennsylvania is still monitoring the bomb threat received on bridges within Beaver County.  The threat was considered serious which required a thorough investigation.  No bombs were found.

Region IV:
Severe winter weather is once again impacting the southeastern United States. Region IV RRCC is activated at Level III to monitor the weather across the region. Operational period is 0700-1900 hrs.

Georgia State Emergency Management is in "Normal" Monitoring Status. Electric outages reported in the northern part of state.

North Carolina: State Emergency Management is in "Level III" Monitoring Status. Coordination Conference calls with the counties are occurring. Biggest concern is with possible icing and refreezing.

• Duke Power reporting 800-1000 without power in the Charlotte area. It is undetermined at this time if this is due to weather conditions.
• All NC Emergency Management Branch Offices (Eastern Branch Office-Kinston, Central Branch Office-Butner and Western Branch Office-Hickory) are open and minimally staffed.
• Central Branch Office reports 24 schools now closed in Triad area.
• Western Branch Office reports the worst area is I-85 corridor.
• NC Division of Emergency Management Logistics has opened the Badin, NC Warehouse for possible distribution of items, primarily generators.
• Minor flooding is occurring on the Roanoke River at Williamston. Otherwise, North Carolina Rivers are within their banks.
• Dominion Power- VA. Potential for ice accumulation in Williamston and Rocky Mount service areas. Dominion lineman crews staged in Petersburg, VA, and standing by to respond to service issues as needed in the NC Power service territory. Crews will be dispatched to assist Duke Energy with outage restoration in Duke Service territory, if not needed within NC Power service area.
• No shelter activity has been reported by any agency at this time.
• Some air flights are being cancelled due to the weather conditions and this might eventually impact the number of persons stranded at airport facilities. While this is not anticipated to be a significant problem, the situation should be monitored.

South Carolina: State Emergency Management returned to Normal operations and deactivated at 3:00 PM Thursday, February 1.

Super Bowl XLI, Miami, FL, February 04, 2007, 1830.
The Florida State EOC will be at normal levels with the Duty Officer in the State Warning Point monitoring the event. The State Emergency Management has personnel in the JOC and at the Miami-Dade EOC.

FEMA Region IV representative Lora Goza is located at the Miami-Dade EOC and will remain on-site until Monday, February 5.  Region IV Regional Support Team and Emergency Response Teams are on alert.

Region V:
The river flooding situation across the Region has greatly improved. All rivers are forecast to be below flood stage this week

RRCC activation - Region V RRCC is not activated. Communications connectivity is via the 24/7 Region V Duty Officer System.

Region VI:
Region VI is closely monitoring the current severe weather active throughout the region.

The RRCC is not activated at this time.

Region VII:
In Southwest-West Central Iowa, the front will be accompanied by snow showers and gusty winds producing some blowing snow and reduced visibilities. Minor snow accumulations expected. 

Joint PDAs (1676-MO) for Individual Assistance for 38 counties and the City of St. Louis began Tuesday, January 30, 2007.  Due to the storm of January 31/February 1, PDAs are suspended until the roads have been cleared.

The Region VII RRCC has returned to normal duty hours (0700 - 1630 Monday thru Friday).  State Liaison Officers will continue to operate as FEMA Duty Officers for each assigned state during non-working hours.

Region VIII:
Monitoring the potential hazardous weather conditions, that may develop in all Region VIII states, including moderate to heavy snow with blizzard conditions and wind chills of 20 to 50 below zero in portions of MT and WY, light to moderate snow and wind chills of 10 to 40 degrees below zero in portions of ND, SD, CO and UT.

The RRCC is not activated, but Region Operations staff continues to monitor the current situation in all Region VIII states.

Region IX:
Hawaii fires contained without substantial threat to residences. High Winds and Surf in Hawaii, FSM and American Samoa

USDA declares 48 California Counties eligible for Farm Service Agency (FSA) loans

Region X:
There is significant wind damage in Bristol Bay, Alaska.  Shelters are active due to power outage.  Flood warning and boil water order continue for W. Kenai Peninsula.  Federal RRCC is not activated. State gathering damage info from Bristol Bay storms: several communities w/o power or phones; some public bldg damage and local shelters active. 

Kenai Peninsula: Flood Warning on Kenai River from Soldotna Br. to mouth of river until 5 PM (AST) Friday.  Three smaller ice jams formed into a single large ice jam.  Down-stream communities at risk as jam breaks and moves down river.  State estimates State declaration only.  No activations expected.  

February 3: Alaska JFO to close and transition to PA Processing center.

Extremely cold temps and very deep snows in Alaska are expected to make "Break-up flooding" later and more severe than usual, with possible on-set in early May.  

NOAA's National Weather Service Improves Tornado Rating System

NOAA's National Weather Service implemented use of the Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale to rate tornadoes, replacing the original Fujita (F) Scale. The EF Scale will continue to rate tornadoes on a scale from zero to five, but ranges in wind speed will be more accurate with the improved rating scale. "The EF Scale takes into account additional variables which will provide a more accurate indication of tornado strength," said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, director of NOAA's National Weather Service. "The EF Scale will provide detailed guidelines that allow the National Weather Service to more accurately rate tornadoes that strike in the United States."

The F Scale was developed in 1971 by Dr. T. Theodore Fujita to rate tornadoes and estimate associated wind speed based on the damage they cause. The EF Scale refines and improves the original scale. It was developed by the Texas Tech University Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, along with a forum of wind engineers, universities, private companies, government organizations, private sector meteorologists and NOAA meteorologists from across the country. Limitations of the original F Scale may have led to inconsistent ratings, including possible overestimates of associated wind speeds. The EF Scale incorporates more damage indicators and degrees of damage than the original F Scale, allowing more detailed analysis and better correlation between damage and wind speed.

The original F Scale historical data base will not change. An F5 tornado rated years ago is still an F5, but the wind speed associated with the tornado may have been somewhat less than previously estimated. A correlation between the original F Scale and the EF Scale has been developed. This makes it possible to express ratings in terms of one scale to the other, preserving the historical database. (NOAA Public Affairs)

Copies of the research and methodology used to develop the enhanced Fujita scale are available online at: www.wind.ttu.edu/EFscale.pdf
On the web: NOAA: www.noaa.gov
NOAA's National Weather Service: www.nws.noaa.gov
Enhanced Fujita Scale: www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale

Wildfire Activity

No significant activity. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Earthquake/Tsunami Activity:

A light earthquake with magnitude 4.6 was recorded at 6:05 am EST, February 1, in the Aleutian Islands, 235 miles WSW of Adak, Alaska.  No reports of damage or injury (FEMA Region IX, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Volcanic Activity:

No significant activity. (USGS Vancouver, Washington; University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, Seattle, Washington; NOAA)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No significant activity. ( NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Joint PDAs (1676-MO) for Individual Assistance for 38 counties and the City of St. Louis began Tuesday, January 30, 2007.  Due to the storm of January 31-February 1, PDAs are suspended until the roads have been cleared. (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

A major disaster declaration FEMA-1677-Oklahoma was approved on February 1, 2007, for Public Assistance, including direct Federal assistance if warranted, for three counties, and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

A major disaster declaration FEMA-1678-Oklahoma was approved on February 1, 2007, for Public Assistance in three counties, including direct Federal assistance if warranted, and Hazard Mitigation Grant Program statewide.  (FEMA HQ)