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National Situation Update: Thursday, January 11, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West
Another storm system will stall over the Rockies and Great Basin through the next few days, resulting in snow in the Rockies and cold temperatures elsewhere.

Snow levels could lower to 1,000 feet in Southern California by Friday morning, bringing flakes to rather unfamiliar territory.

Snow will continue in the northern Rockies, slowly shifting southward into the Wasatch and Colorado Rockies. A winter storm watch continues for the Salt Lake Valley, benches, and Wasatch.

Showers, falling as snow in the higher terrain, are expected in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas' Big Bend.

Midwest
A winter storm is taking shape, bringing arctic air to the northern Plains. Highs will be in the single digits in parts of North Dakota.

Light rain is forecast in the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys, while a thin area of light freezing rain is possible from southern and eastern Nebraska into Lower Michigan.

Rainfall is forecast from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley. Moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected Friday, causing rivers in southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois and western Kentucky to remain near or even above flood stage. Rainfall amounts from 2-4" are possible, with locally higher amounts, through Monday.

Northeast
High pressure will keep skies clear except for high clouds moving through Upstate New York and northern New England.

South
Sprinkles or light showers along the Southeast coast.

An area of heavy rainfall may set up tonight into Friday from northeast Texas and eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas, western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Rainfall of 2 inches is forecast from late Thursday into the weekend. Flood watches are already hoisted for parts of western Kentucky in advance of this storm.

A few thunderstorms Friday could become severe from northeast Texas into western Tennessee through Monday. (NWS, Media Sources)

NOAA Reports 2006 Warmest Year On Record For U.S.

The 2006 average annual temperature for the contiguous U.S. was the warmest on record and nearly identical to the record set in 1998, according to scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, N.C. Seven months in 2006 were much warmer than average, including December, which ended as the fourth warmest December since records began in 1895. Based on preliminary data, the 2006 annual average temperature was 55 degrees F-2.2 degrees F above the 20th Century mean and 0.07 degrees F warmer than 1998. These values were calculated using a network of more than 1,200 U.S. Historical Climatology Network stations. The data, primarily from rural stations, have been adjusted to remove artificial effects resulting from factors such as urbanization and station and instrument changes, which occurred during the period of record.

An improved data set being developed at NCDC and scheduled for release in 2007 incorporates recent scientific advances that better address uncertainties in the instrumental record. Small changes in annual average temperatures will affect individual rankings. Although undergoing final testing and development, this new data set also shows 2006 and 1998 to be the two warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S., but with 2006 slightly cooler than 1998.

After a cold start to December, the persistence of spring-like temperatures in the eastern two-thirds of the country during the final two to three weeks of 2006 made this the fourth warmest December on record in the U.S., and helped bring the annual average to record high levels. For example, the monthly average temperature in Boston was 8 degrees F above average, and in Minneapolis-St Paul, the temperature was 17 degrees F above average for the last three weeks of December. Even in Denver, which had its third snowiest December on record and endured a major blizzard that brought the city to a standstill during the holiday travel season, the temperature for the month was 1.4 degrees F warmer than the 1971-2000 average. Five states had their warmest December on record (Minnesota, New York, Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire), and no state was colder than average in December.

The unusually warm start to this winter reflected the rarity of Arctic outbreaks across the country as an El Niño episode continued in the equatorial Pacific. A contributing factor to the unusually warm temperatures throughout 2006 also is the long-term warming trend, which has been linked to increases in greenhouse gases. This has made warmer-than-average conditions more common in the U.S. and other parts of the world. It is unclear how much of the recent anomalous warmth was due to greenhouse-gas-induced warming and how much was due to the El Niño-related circulation pattern. It is known that El Niño is playing a major role in this winter's short-term warm period.

U.S. and global annual temperatures are now approximately 1.0 degrees F warmer than at the start of the 20th century, and the rate of warming has accelerated over the past 30 years, increasing globally since the mid-1970s at a rate approximately three times faster than the century-scale trend. The past nine years have all been among the 25 warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S., a streak which is unprecedented in the historical record.  (Excerpt from NOAA News)   http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2772.htm )

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

In Montana, Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for the Blackfeet Indian Reservation are scheduled for January 8-10, 2007, as a result of severe storms January 1, 2007.

In New Mexico, Public Assistance PDAs for 18 counties are scheduled to begin on January 10, 2007, as a result of snows December 28, 2006 and continuing.

In Oregon, Public Assistance PDAs for 17 counties are scheduled to begin on January 17, 2007, as a result of severe windstorms December 14-15, 2006.

Joint PDAs began on January 11, 2006 in Kansas and Nebraska, in support of DR-1675-KS and DR-1674-NE (Region VII, FEMA HQ) 

Disaster Declaration Activity

Governor Brad Henry has requested a major disaster declaration for the State of Oklahoma as a result of snow and ice storms beginning on December 19, 2006, and continuing.  The Governor is requesting Public Assistance, including direct Federal assistance for the counties of Beaver, Texas, and Cimarron, and Hazard Mitigation statewide. 

DR-1573-MO. Amendment #1. Effective January 8, 2007 Michael L. Karl is appointed Federal Coordinating Officer replacing Thomas J. Costello. (FEMA HQ)