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National Situation Update: Friday, December 15, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

West
A fierce December storm is sweeping across the Pacific Northwest. Overnight heavy rain has spread southward into northern California. Coastal areas could receive 3 to 5 inches of rain, while inland areas along the Interstate 5 corridor will see 2 to 4 inches. Some parts of the coastal mountain range could receive up to 8 inches of rain. River flooding will increase today. Cities like Seattle and Portland are under flood watches.

An avalanche warning is also in effect for the Cascades of Washington and Oregon.

Meanwhile, winds ahead of the cold front in the Sierra and across Montana, Wyoming and northern Colorado will be quite strong. Some locations in the vicinity of the east slopes of the Rockies could see gusts over 100 mph.

Heavy snow will spread down the Sierra and advance eastward into Montana and Wyoming. The northern Rockies will experience blizzard conditions. Snow levels will plunge to below 1000 feet in Washington and northwest Oregon, 2000 feet over the remainder of Oregon and 3500 feet in northern California.

Midwest 
The Plains and Midwest will be mostly dry today with only a few showers or flurries along the Canadian border.

Another disturbance will race out into the western Dakotas late today and then sweep eastward toward the western Great Lakes and southward into Kansas on Saturday.

High temperatures will be a balmy 5 to 25 degrees above average which means 30s and 40s north to the 60s from Kansas to Kentucky.

Northeast  
A breezy area of low pressure will move through the Northeast today, keeping the fog at bay and causing showers from northwest Pennsylvania to Maine.

High temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees above average right through the weekend which translates to 30s and 40s toward the Canadian border and 60s to near 70 in Virginia. 

South    
Showery rain will continue over southern Florida today.

North of the rain, the Deep South will experience locally dense fog from eastern Texas to the Southeast Coast this morning.

High temperatures during the day will be a spring-like 5 to 20 degrees above average.(National Weather Service, media sources)

Major Western U.S. Storm Summary

A series of strong Pacific storms continues to impact the northern portion of the western United States this week, with major impacts including strong wind, heavy snow, and very high surf on the coast.  The strongest of the storms will move into the Pacific Northwest and across the northern tier of the region today, bringing even more wind, snow and waves.  For the weekend, another system will dig southward bringing a strong winter storm to southern California.

The strongest winds have been reported in Montana, where a gust to 109 mph was observed at McDonald Pass west of Great Falls.  On Wednesday alone, more than 70 locations reported wind gusts of 50 mph or more, with many reaching 65 to 79 mph.  Damage so far has been limited to a few trees, power lines, and roofs.

The upcoming stronger storm will produce high winds across all of the Northwestern states.  Wind speeds are expected to reach 70 to 90 mph on the coast and mountains of Oregon and Washington today.  Even stronger winds (80 to 100 mph) are expected in northern and central Montana.  Locations on the Rocky Mountain front may see winds over 120 mph.

As the weekend approaches, rain and mountain snow will impact southern California, where the burn areas will need to be watched for possible debris flow and flash flood problems, and low elevation snow levels will impact travel by Saturday night and Sunday. 

FEMA Region X is in close contact with the Washington and Oregon Emergency Management Agencies regarding the forecast of severe weather.

Commercial power has been fading in and out but the Region X MOC is functioning adequately on generator power when necessary. Normal FEMA Region X Operations continue uninterrupted. (NOAA, Region X)

Hurricane Season Classified As Near Normal

The 2006 hurricane season was classified by NOAA as near-normal. This year's activity was far less than most other seasons since the current active Atlantic hurricane era began in 1995. Nine, the number of named storms during the 2006 season, is the second lowest since 1995. Only the below-normal 1997 season had fewer. This reduced activity in both years is attributed largely to the rapid onset of El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, which suppresses conditions conducive to hurricane formation in the Atlantic. (NOAA National Climatic Data Center)

NORTHCOM Update

STS-116 Shuttle Discovery:  The prime emergency landing site remains Edwards AFB, CA for Friday, December 15 with a landing time of 9:21 pm EST.  NORAD-USNORTHCOM Command Center continues to monitor and participate in daily NASA teleconferences.

Mount Hood, Oregon Rescue Effort:  The Oregon National Guard suspended their rescue effort for the missing hikers on Mount Hood as of  December 14 at 5:00 pm EST.  The local sheriff's office as well as the National Guard Joint Force Headquarters, Oregon (JFHQ-OR) have not requested any additional assistance.  The JFHQ-NV has provided a C-130 aircraft with Forward Looking Infrared capability, however, the weather conditions on the mountain have winds forecast to be greater than 160 mph for the next 48 hours.  NORAD-USNORTHCOM Command Center continues to monitor.

Jailed Egyptian Cleric has called for attacks:  The FBI reports in a bulletin the "blind sheik" who inspired the World Trade Center bombing has been hospitalized, raising fears of new attacks if he dies in U.S. custody.  Radical Egyptian cleric Omar Abdel Rahman, who is serving life in a U.S. prison, has himself called for attacks if he dies in jail.  Law enforcement sources stress there is no intelligence to suggest any attacks are being planned.  NORAD-USNORTHCOM Command Center continues to monitor.

Oil refinery explosion in Sarnia, Ontario, Canada: at 3:00 am EST an explosion was reported at Imperial Oil Refinery in Sarnia, Ontario, which is just across the US border from Port Huron, Michigan.  There were no reported casualties, nor release of toxic or hazardous materials.  Emergency officials have decided to let the fire burn out.  Shipping in the Federal Navigation Channel was initially slowed but has since returned to normal operations.  Event closed. (NORTHCOM)

Crude Oil Spill

December 14, 2006 at 11:55 am EST, an oil spill from an 8 inch underground transmission line yielded approximately 500 gallons of crude oil in Weld County Colorado. 400 gallons migrated into the local storm sewer system. The contamination was cleaned up by local crews and no FEMA assistance is requested or anticipated. (FEMA Region VIII)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

At 9:15pm EST, December 14, a 3.8 (minor) magnitude earthquake was reported 44 miles northwest from Anchorage, Alaska. No damage or injuries were reported.   (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)