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National Situation Update: Thursday, December 14, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

West
A developing storm is on its way to the Pacific Northwest following on the heels of Wednesday's storm. This second storm will be much more powerful than the first, with damaging winds, driving rain, heavy mountain snows, and massive surf. Conditions will spiral steadily downward through the day as both wind and precipitation increase, but the most dangerous period will come late in the day.

• Winds along the coast and in coastal mountains are expected to hit 100 mph or more; even inland, power outages and roof damage are likely. Wind gusts of 50-70 mph are possible along the I-5 Corridor. High wind watches are now posted for both the Seattle and Portland areas.
  
• Rain and snowfall will be heavy. Snow levels will rise rapidly ahead of the storm, likely nearing 7,000 feet or more in the Oregon Cascades and dumping several feet of wind-driven snow, then plunge precipitously behind the storm.
  
• Seas will be massive with surf along the southwest Washington and Oregon coasts building to the 28 to 35 foot range, probably higher just offshore.
  Elsewhere in the West, showers and mountain snow are forecast to extend southward into northern California and eastward into the northern Rockies.

Midwest
A weak front and associated upper-air disturbance will deposit a few showers, perhaps mixed with a little snow and sleet near the Canadian border, on parts of the Upper Midwest and northeast North Dakota. The remainder of the Midwest and Plains can look forward to dry conditions. and temperatures everywhere should be unseasonably mild.

South
Precipitation should be limited to a scattering of showers and thunderstorms over the Florida Peninsula and in far southern Texas. Spring-like weather will prevail throughout most of the South. Highs will remain above average right into the weekend.

Northeast
Busy southwest winds bearing out-of-season mildness will prevent precipitation and bump temperatures into the 30s in far northern New England and the 60s from Virginia to southern New Jersey. New York City and Philadelphia can look forward to readings in the upper 50s to near 60.  (National Weather Service, media sources)

Power Outages in Northwest, Stronger Storm due Tonight

Trees toppled by gale-force winds crashed down onto power lines and caused thousands of customers to be without power in Western Washington on Wednesday.

Seattle City Light crews restored power to thousands of customers Wednesday, but continuing high winds and fallen tree branches were still causing outages for about 9,000 customers in the Seattle neighborhoods.

Forecasters said the next weather system blowing in from the Pacific appears to be stronger, with damaging winds possible Thursday night and Friday morning.  The strongest winds are expected to have wind gusts up to 75 mph for coastal communities, and up to 100 mph along coastal headlands and beaches. Winds will pick up in the greater Puget Sound region overnight Thursday into Friday morning.

These winds speeds will most likely cause damage, trees falling and more power outages. (Media sources)

Sunspots Causing Communication Failures

On December 12, 2006 the NOAA observed a solar radiation storm on the Sun that produced a powerful and fast Earth-directed coronal mass ejection that is expected to impact the earth around 1:00 EST on December 14th. The result of this significant geomagnetic storm is a potential adverse effect on satellite communications, HF and VHF mid-latitude radio communications, long-line telephone systems, power grids (potentially causing blackouts), oil and gas pipelines, as well as VLF navigation and GPS systems.

A sunspot is a region on the Sun's surface (photosphere) that is marked by intense magnetic activity. NOAA monitors these occurrences and issues Space Advisory Bulletins and Space Weather Scales, introduced as a way to communicate to the general public the current and future space weather conditions and their possible effects on people and systems. The NOAA Scales describe the environmental disturbances for three types of events: geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts. They list possible effects at each level.

This solar storm occurrence is Bulletin #06-4 (severe). For the next five days we could experience HF radio communication blackouts on most of the sunlit side of the Earth for one or two hours. Outages of low-frequency signals could cause minor satellite navigation disruptions on the sunlit side of the earth.

Further information on NOAA Space Weather Scale for Radio Blackouts available at: http://sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#GeomagneticStorms. (NOAA Space Weather Advisories, Space Environmental Center)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

A quake with a magnitude of 2.5 was reported around 2 p.m. Tuesday, December 12, about seven miles west-southwest of Reading, Pennsylvania, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Depth was 3.7 miles.  A spokesman for the Berks County Emergency Management Agency said it was sizable compared to the ones in the past.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)