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National Situation Update: Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hazards for the Week

• A couple of rounds of heavy rain, mountain snow and strong winds are expected across the Pacific Northwest from December 11 through 15.

• Occasional strong winds are possible over the Alaska Panhandle and the Northwest from December 11 through 16.

• A couple of rounds of heavy snow are possible over the northern Rockies from December 12 through 16.

• Offshore winds may result in an enhanced risk for wildfires over southwestern California from December 11 through 15.

• Severe drought is expected to persist across portions of the central United States; some improvement is possible over parts of northeastern Texas. (National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center)
  

National Forecast

South
In the South, showers & thunderstorms are possible in the Mississippi River Delta and the Tennessee Valley today. An isolated thunderstorm could produce some brief severe-sized hail (penny-sized or larger). Rainfall amounts are expected to be a half of an inch or less, but there could be pockets of heavier rains today.

Texas will dry out today, but clouds will be increasing across Georgia and the Carolinas ahead of the system bringing the rains to Mississippi, Alabama, much of Tennessee, Louisiana, and eastern Arkansas.

Across Florida, an on-shore wind continues, resulting in rough seas and a high risk of rip currents along Florida's East Coast.

Midwest
In the Midwest, rain will affect much of the Ohio River Valley and the Great Lakes.

In Minnesota and western Iowa, a rain/snow mix is possible with icy conditions possible at the west end of Lake Superior (around Duluth).

Areas of dense fog are possible this morning over the Upper Midwest, including the Northern Plains. An isolated thunderstorm in Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, or Western Kentucky could briefly produce some hail.

West
In the West, a brief rest from yesterday's rain and wind in the Pacific Northwest. The rain, snow, and wind from yesterday moves to the Northern Rockies bringing snows to the higher elevations of Idaho and Montana.

Snow is still possible in the Cascade and Olympic Mountain Ranges with the heaviest snow still expected in the Cascades. Snow levels range from as low as 2500 feet in the Olympics to over 5000 feet in Idaho.

In the Southwest, dry and mild conditions are expected to last throughout most of the week ahead.

Northeast
In much of the Northeast, another pleasant day is forecast with above average temperatures and a lack of precipitation. The only rain will be in Western New York and Northeast Pennsylvania (near Lake Erie). 
 (National Weather Service)

Strengthening El Nino May Change Winter Weather Patterns

This year's El Nino is strengthening as winter arrives, which could mean a warmer, drier winter for the northern USA and wetter weather through spring in the south, federal climate officials say.

If a typical pattern of more precipitation across the southern third of the USA holds true, Texas and Florida could get major relief from drought. Southern California, ravaged by wildfires, could see severe mudslides if burned areas get the usual heavy El Nino rains.

Still in question is the area in between, from the central Rockies across the Great Plains and Midwest.

The phenomenon usually means less winter precipitation and warmer temperatures across the northern part of the USA. Whatever the effects, expect to see them from January through March, says a spokesperson for the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center in Maryland.

Watch as well for a turn in the jet stream, the high-altitude river of wind that steers storms across the continent. National Weather forecasters say that pattern, normally a north-to-south track in winter that brings cold Arctic blasts into the heartland, could turn east-to-west. If so, the extreme winter cold from the north may stay in Canada.

Although the Pacific Northwest has suffered through waves of record wet weather this fall, forecasters say that the region isn't likely to see much winter precipitation if El Nino's grip tightens.

Climatologists and El Nino researchers at the University of Colorado in Boulder say the pattern this year is pretty robust and could stick around beyond spring.  If so, early outlooks on the 2007 hurricane season may have to be revised. (Media sources, National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

More than 50 firefighters are trying to get a handle on Virginia wildfires that are burning more than 500 acres in the George Washington National Forest. Dozens more firefighters are expected to come in Monday night. The fire is in the western end of Amherst County, Virginia, near Peavine Mountain, not far from the Blue Ridge Parkway. No homes are in danger. Rainy weather is possible on Wednesday, which would help fire containment efforts.  (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1668-DR-LA Amendment #3 - Amendment includes the Parish of Natchitoches for Public Assistance, including direct Federal Assistance, if warranted as determined by FEMA (already designated for Individual Assistance).

The Governor of Oregon is requesting a major disaster declaration for Public Assistance in four counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide. (FEMA HQ)