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National Situation Update: Friday, December 8, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Forecast

West
Rain will spread from the Olympic Peninsula of Washington to central California, including the San Francisco Bay area.  Snowy and windy around Lake Tahoe, with snow accumulating at elevations over 7000 feet.  Rain showers may move all the way down to the Los Angeles area on Saturday night and Sunday.

Midwest
A frigid air mass will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  Air passing over the Great Lakes will create lake-effect snow. Bands of heavy snow will continue southeast of Lake Erie. Parts of northeast Ohio may pick up another foot of snow.  Warmer southwest winds will spread from the Plains states into the Great Lakes.

South
Morning lows will be in the 20s as far south as New Orleans, Mobile, and Ocala, FL Dallas-Ft. Worth and Atlanta will shiver in the low 20s. Teens into Mississippi, Alabama, and north Georgia.  A wind chill advisory has been posted for the southern Appalachians, where readings from 5 to 10 below zero are possible. Two to four inches of snow may coat the Smoky Mountains. Highs will hold in the 40s from the coastal Carolinas to Deep South Texas. Chilly fifties will be common across northern and central Florida, including Orlando and Tampa. A warming trend will begin this weekend across the southern plains and the western Gulf regions and then spread eastward.

Northeast
A foot or more of snow is likely across parts of central and southwestern New York and northeast Pennsylvania. Cold northwest winds reinforcing the intrusion of Arctic air, highs in the I-95 corridor will be in the low-mid 30s. Wind chills in the teens or 20s .  Extended forecasts indicate that blasts of cold air may stay away from the Northeast, generally, at least through next week.

Midwest Storm Updates

As of Thursday night, Ameren Electric reported 49,150 customers still without power in Missouri and Illinois.  All power in Missouri should be restored by noon today.  The Missouri National Guard has 213 personnel on duty performing various missions in the affected counties.  In Missouri, the American Red Cross (ARC) has closed all its shelters and warming centers. (Ameren Electric, FEMA Region V and VII)

El Niño Gains Strength

El Niño conditions are now evident in the tropical Pacific and should intensify during the next one to three months, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

 "Evolving current conditions in the equatorial Pacific are likely to cause a substantial increase in sea surface temperature along the west coast of South America in late December 2006 and January 2007," said Vernon Kousky, Ph.D., NOAA's lead El Niño forecaster.

"At about the same time, rainfall is expected to increase over the warm waters in the central equatorial Pacific, thus setting the stage for typical El Niño effects over the U.S. during January through March 2007".

El Niño effects can include storminess and wetter-than-average conditions across the southern tier of the U.S. from central and southern California across the Southwest to Texas and across the Gulf Coast to Florida and the Southeast, with drier-than-average conditions in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and in the northern Rockies. 

The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.  (NOAA)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Depression 25W, at 3:00 am EST was located approximately 685 miles east-southeast of Manila, Philippines, at 18mph. . Winds in the area are estimated to be 28 to 40 mph. No U.S. interests will be affected.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity in the last 24 hours. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

No significant activity in the last 24 hours.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)