• Emergency Managers and Personnel
• Situation Reports
• National Incident Management System
• Grants & Assistance Programs
• Training
• Contacts
• Planning
• Best Practices

National Situation Update: Thursday, December 7, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

Midwest
Bitterly cold air with subzero wind chills will grip most of the Plains and Midwest. The subzero chills are expected to reach as far south as Nebraska, northern Missouri and the northern two-thirds of Illinois.

Biting cold and lake-effect snow squalls and flurries moving from Michigan southward through Indiana and Ohio into eastern Kentucky.

The heaviest snowfalls are forecast along the shores of Lake Michigan in western lower Michigan and northern Indiana, and in northeastern Ohio.

Northeast
Icy winds in the Northeast, while interior locations will experience snow showers and flurries.

Closer to the eastern Great Lakes, heavy lake-effect snow squalls will prevail, reaching as far south as the West Virginia mountains, where several inches of fresh powder is forecast.

South
Cold winds will sweep into the South, and snow showers are expected in the southern Appalachians, and eastern Tennessee.

The Florida Peninsula will experience cold and a few showers here and there.

A vigorous easterly flow over the Gulf of Mexico will deliver rain and showers into south Texas. The heaviest amounts, maybe near an inch, are expected near the coast.

West
Generally sunny skies and dry weather throughout most of the western U. S.
Low clouds and fog may persist in some valleys and basins in the Pacific Northwest. (NWS, Media Sources)

Midwest Storm Updates

As of Thursday at 5:00am, Ameren Electric reported 53,375 customers still without power in Missouri and Illinois - down from Tuesday's reported outages of 180,000. Full restoration is expected by Friday.

Joint Federal and State PDAs began yesterday in Missouri for five counties and St. Louis city.

The Kansas Division of Emergency Management has not received any additional reports of damages or requests for assistance.  The State will continue to request reports from local officials.

Missouri shelter population was reported at 104 at two locations.  Shelters are anticipated to close today, with alternate housing offered to clients needing assistance. (Ameren Electric, FEMA Region VII)

Scientists say that a 'Silent Earthquake' is Overdue

Seismology experts and geology researchers are literally waiting for the earth under the Pacific Northwest to move at any moment. The earthquake will be strong but it's certainly not going to knock plates off the wall or homes off their foundations.  Experts say it will last a long time - about two weeks - and that's why you won't feel it.

The seismic event the scientists are waiting for is called a deep tremor or silent earthquake and the scientists have known about them for less than a decade.

Normally, the North American tectonic plate moves in a northeast direction, about 8 millimeters a year.  We don't even notice its movement.  But scientists have found that every 14 months or so, the plate seems to reverse course, sliding backwards for between 6 and 15 days. It happened in July 1998, August 1999, December 2000, February 2002 and September 2005.  It's now due.

In anticipation, researchers have set out an array of monitors and are watching them closely.

In November, those monitors began picking up movements in the Vancouver Island area but they stopped after a just a few days.  Scientists don't believe those shakes are linked to a silent earthquake.  They say once the deep tremors start they'll definitely know it. (Media sources)

New Director Named for the National Hurricane Center

Bill Proenza, a veteran weather forecaster and administrator who was raised in South Florida, was named director of the National Hurricane Center on Wednesday, replacing Max Mayfield.

Proenza, 62, is director of the National Weather Service's Southern Region, which includes several of the nation's most hurricane vulnerable states: Florida, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

Proenza takes over Jan. 3, when Mayfield steps down after 34 years at the center. He will oversee a staff of meteorologists at the Miami-based center, work with emergency managers on hurricane preparedness programs in many coastal states and travel extensively to make residents aware of the dangers of hurricanes.

In his new post, Proenza said he would seek to build upon previous improvements in forecasting technology by better predicting changes in a storm's intensity and the amount of time remaining before a storm's conditions become unsafe.

Tropical Weather Outlook

As of 10:00pm EST, the Joint Typhoon Center has issued advisories in the Northwest Pacific for Tropical Depression 25W, presently located approximately 109 miles west-southwest of Yap, and moving west at 18mph. . Winds in the area are estimated to be 28 to 40 mph. No U.S. interests will be affected.   (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity to report in the last 24 hours.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Joint Public Assistance PDAs for five counties and one independent city in Missouri began on December 6, 2006, as a result of a severe winter storm November 29, 2006 and continuing. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Red Flag warnings remain in effect in California, for Los Angeles and Ventura counties. (NWS, NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new information to report. (FEMA HQ)