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National Situation Update: Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West: A storm system moving in off the Pacific will produce heavy precipitation from central California to Washington. Heavy snow is forecast in the Cascades and into western Montana and Idaho. Over 20 inches of snow is possible in elevations above 8,000 feet in Washington. Flooding is possible in western Washington and a flood warning is in effect for the Cowlitz River below Mayfield Dam (Lewis county) and the Cedar River at Renton (King county). High surf of up to 20 feet is forecast along the Pacific Northwest Coast. High temperatures should range from the 20s around Yellowstone National Park to the 80s in southwest Arizona.

South: A deep low pressure area and associated frontal system will produce widespread rain and thunderstorms across the region. Two to three inches of rain may fall over some areas. A line of severe thunderstorms will move eastward across Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Tornado Watches and Warnings are already in effect for many areas. Behind the storm expect gusty northwesterly winds and periods of rain. High temperatures will range from the 40s behind the cold front to 80s in the Florida Peninsula.

Midwest: Rain associated with the low in the southeast will spread quickly from the Missouri Valley to the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes during the day. One to two inches of rain may fall over some locations. Winds will increase rapidly across parts of Missouri and southern Illinois. Rain should mix with or change to light snow from Minnesota to Oklahoma later in the day. High temperatures will range from the 30s in the Dakotas and the Upper Midwest to the 50s in the Ohio Valley. 

Northeast: Rain associated with the low in the southeast will move across West Virginia spreading across the rest of the Northeast late tonight. The flood potential in the mid-Atlantic will need to be monitored. High temperatures will be near mid-November averages with highs reaching the 70s in southeast Virginia. (National Weather Service, various Media Reports)

Potential Multi-State Severe Weather Outbreak

As discussed above severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Tornado Watches and Warnings are already in effect for many areas.

The Florida State EOC will activate at a LEVEL 2, partial activation with selected staff, Wednesday, November 15, 2006 at 6:00 AM ET.   Hours of operations will be 6:00 AM- 8:00 PM, situation dependent.  Other staffs and ESFs have been placed on call. 

No FEMA or any other Federal assistance has been requested at this time.  The Regional Duty Office (RDO) has been in contact with the Region IV States that may be affected by this storm system.  The RDO will remain in contact with the State EOCs.  Reports and updates will be provided as necessary.(NWS, FEMA HQ, FEMA Region IV)

New Volcano Alert-Level System

This Fall the USGS is adopting a common system nationwide for characterizing the level of unrest and eruptive activity at volcanoes. The new volcano alert-level system will replace three separate systems currently being used in the United State . Under the new system, the USGS will rank the level of activity at a U.S. volcano using the terms "Normal", for typical volcanic activity in a non-eruptive phase; "Advisory", for elevated unrest; "Watch", for escalating unrest or a minor eruption underway that poses limited hazards; and, "Warning", if a highly hazardous eruption is underway or imminent (Table 1). These levels reflect conditions at a volcano and the expected or ongoing hazardous volcanic phenomena. When an alert level is assigned by an observatory, accompanying text will give a fuller explanation of the observed phenomena and clarify hazard implications to affected groups.

Table 1. SUMMARY OF VOLCANIC-ALERT LEVELS

NORMAL

Typical background activity of a volcano in a non-eruptive state
After a change from a higher level:
Volcanic activity considered to have ceased, and volcano reverted to its normal, non-eruptive state.

ADVISORY

Elevated unrest above known background activity
After a change from a higher level:
Volcanic activity has decreased significantly but continues to be closely monitored for possible renewed increase.

WATCH

Heightened/escalating unrest with increased potential for eruptive activity (timeframe variable) OR a minor eruption underway that poses limited hazards.

WARNING

Highly hazardous eruption underway or imminent.

The United States is one of the most volcanically rich countries in the world, with 169 active and dormant volcanoes. Since 1980, 45 eruptions and 15 cases of notable volcanic unrest have occurred at 33 U.S. volcanoes. In 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released the first ever comprehensive and systematic review of the volcanoes. The report established the framework for the National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEMS). The NVEWS ranks the most dangerous volcanoes in the U.S. but also discusses monitoring gaps in each volcano.

Of the 55 volcanoes that pose the biggest threat to the United States , approximately half are significantly under monitored. Alaska , California , Washington State , Oregon , Hawaii , Wyoming and the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas have dangerous volcanoes with either significant monitoring gaps or no monitoring in place.

To help keep communities safe, it is essential to monitor hazardous volcanoes so that the public knows when unrest begins hazards can be expected. USGS is responsible for issuing timely warnings of potential volcanic disasters. Timely public warnings can only be available if volcanoes are adequately monitored with instrument networks in place before unrest develops. (Excerpt from http://volcanoes.usgs.gov USGS)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Thursday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Sergio is centered about 430 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Sergio could become a category one hurricane within 48 hours, and is expected to gradually begin moving northward.

Western Pacific:
The final warning has been issued on Tropical Depression 23W (Chebi) which is forecast to dissipate over Hainan Island today. No U.S. interests are affected. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A series of light (magnitude 3.0 to 3.9) earthquakes struck various locations in Alaska. No were no reports of damage.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific and Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

PDAs for Washington State are scheduled to begin today, for IA. (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:18:52 EDT