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National Situation Update: Monday, November 13, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hazards for the Week

• Periods of heavy rain are expected for parts of the West Coast from November 13 through16.
  
• Occasional gales are likely to accompany these storms along the Pacific Northwest coast.
  
• Heavy rain will accompany a slowly-moving storm in an area from the crest of the Appalachians to the middle Atlantic and New England coasts November 13 through 14.
  
• Heavy rain is indicated for the Gulf Coast States from southeastern Texas to the western Florida Panhandle November 13 through 14.
  
• Much below normal temperatures are expected for most of the eastern half of Alaska for November 13 through 17, and possibly longer.
  
• Severe drought continues across the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, northern Arizona, southwest Missouri, Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and a large part of Texas, but some improvement is possible across most of these areas.
  

National Weather: Vigorous Storms on Both Coasts

Northeast
Along the East Coast rain from a low-pressure system around Tidewater Virginia is expected to spread northward from the Mid-Atlantic to New England coasts over the next 2 days. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will expand northward through the Delaware Valley and New Jersey to New York City and Long Island, southern New England including Boston and Down East Maine. This rain will bring localized flooding in some areas.

West
On the West Coast another storm system is moving ashore bringing rain, heavy mountain snow, and potentially damaging wind to the Pacific Northwest. A storm warning is in effect for part of the Washington and Oregon coasts.

Showery rain, heavy mountain snow and strong winds are expected to spread to interior parts of the West over the next 2 days. Heavy snow warnings, winter storm warnings, winter storm watches, high wind warnings and watches and wind advisories are posted for parts of Idaho, Utah, Montana, Wyoming and Colorado.

South
The weather will be clear and cool with the exception of eastern North Carolina (including the Outer Banks) and eastern Virginia, where a developing storm system will be moving up the coast. A frost advisory is in effect for parts of southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle for this morning.

Midwest
Light rain showers (and possibly a few flakes of snow) will spread from the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas eastward into Minnesota, Iowa, northern Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, and upper Michigan. (National Weather Service, various Media Reports)

Region X Northwest Flooding Update

The Governor of the State of Washington proclaimed a State of Emergency in 24 counties.  The Governor of the State of Oregon has issued an Executive Order determining a State of Emergency in nine counties due to heavy rain and flooding.

Washington State has requested that joint PDAs with FEMA and State personnel be conducted for Individual Assistance (Human Services) beginning November 15, 2006, and for Public Assistance beginning November 27, 2006.

The majority of affected communities are continuing clean-up activities and are collecting damage information, although this next strong storm approaching the Pacific Northwest will probably delay these activities until the storm moves through.

A strong westerly flow over the Pacific Northwest will continue bringing rain and windy conditions throughout next week, with the possibility of another very wet and windy frontal system moving inland around Wednesday and Thursday.

One flood warning remains for the Northwest Sunday night - minor flooding on the Skokomish River near Potlach affecting Mason County, Washington. (FEMA Region X)

NOAA Builds Its Largest Barrier Island Project

NOAA is on schedule to complete the first phase of an 800-acre barrier island project in Louisiana's Plaquemines Parish. In one of the largest island restoration projects ever done by NOAA, workers are dredging and performing major earth-moving activities on Chaland Island, to create beach and marsh habitat that will help protect Louisiana's coastal communities and infrastructure from the devastating effects of wind, waves and flooding.

Over the years, the shoreline along the project area has eroded severely due to human and natural factors. Also, recent storms breached the shoreline and segmented the 2.6-mile island into three smaller fragments. Left unaddressed, these breaches threaten the integrity of several major natural gas pipelines.

"Wetlands and barrier islands are our first defense against storms," said Bill Hogarth, NOAA Fisheries Service Director. "This project will help absorb surging water and wind during storms, protecting our national energy assets and Louisiana's coastal communities."

At the project site, the construction contractor is operating a 30-inch hydraulic dredge to pump offshore sediment onto the eroding barrier island, increasing its width and height. In addition, contractors are installing sand fencing to create dunes and planting native vegetation for intertidal marsh habitat.

During the 20th century, coastal Louisiana has lost more than 1.2 million acres of land, an area more than 25 times larger than Washington, D.C.   If left unchecked, scientists estimate that the state will lose an additional 431,000 acres by 2050. This and other restoration projects help reverse land loss trends and provide vital habitat for the Gulf's fisheries.  These restoration projects have benefited 130,000 acres of coastal wetlands.  (NOAA) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
Disorganized cloudiness and showers that extend southwestward from near Puerto Vallarta, Mexico into the eastern Pacific Ocean for several hundred miles are associated with a surface trough. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is not expected.

A new cluster of thunderstorms appears to be persisting about 375 miles south of Acapulco. Disorganized, development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Elsewhere, Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Tuesday.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Storm 23W (Chebi) continues to move away from northern Luzon in the Philippines, crossing the South China Sea. Chebi will steadily weaken as it tracks north-northwestward at 8 mph to between the island of Hainan and Vietnam.(USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

PDAs for Washington State are anticipated to begin this week, for IA.(FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Pine Haven Fire:  FMAG 2679 was approved for Pine Haven Fire in Washoe County, Reno, Nevada at 2:48 pm EST on November 11, 2006. The fire was caused by sparking from power lines during high wind conditions. Driven by winds that were gusting up to 35 - 50 miles per hour, the fire spread rapidly - as of late Saturday it had consumed 300 acres and was threatening at least 600 homes and one elementary school. Voluntary evacuations were initiated. A change in weather, including some rain, gave fire crews a chance to contain what could have been a very explosive situation.

One firefighter suffered minor injuries. No homes were damaged. While firefighters continue to monitor for hot spots, the fire was fully contained on Sunday.

Lake Elsinore: An out-of-control brush fire that broke out near Lake Elsinore, California Sunday grew to 125 acres and threatened about 300 homes, fire officials said.

The fire was reported about 7:30 p.m. EST in Riverside County, near the Orange County border, about 70 miles east southeast of Los Angeles. Over 200 firefighters are working on the blaze, which is now 30 percent contained.  Voluntary evacuations are in effect for sections of Lake Elsinore. People in the area were being asked to prepare in case mandatory evacuations are ordered.

Gusty winds had died down to about 3 mph, but more dangerous Santa Ana conditions are expected as soon as Monday. (FEMA Region IX, media sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)