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National Situation Update: Tuesday, November 7, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

State of Emergency Declared in Washington

A very potent storm has tapped into tropical moisture near Hawaii ("pineapple express") and is shuttling the moisture into western Washington. Heavy rains are producing major flooding across both states, including potential landslides, debris flows and significant wind. High surf advisory and coastal flood watch are in effect into Tuesday. There are 20 rivers under warning.

In western Washington, 2-6" of rain is expected across the
lowlands, with up to 5-10" in the Cascade Mountains and perhaps over 9-10" in the Olympic Mountains.  The rivers of most concern are the Skagit, the Snohomish, the Puyallup, and the Skokomish.  These rivers are all above flood stage and rising. Significant flooding is also predicted on the Nehalem and Wilson Rivers. In Oregon, Wilson River near Tillamook is at flood stage and expected to experience major flooding.  Nehalem River near Foss is at flood stage and expected to experience major flooding.

Critical threats at this point appear to be along the Skagit River; in particular, Burlington, which is projected to exceed flood stage and expected to crest at approximately 7 pm EST Tuesday.  According to Washington State, the USACE Seattle district states a levee failure in this area could be likely (this has not been confirmed with USACE).  Due to rising water, the state has issued an evacuation order within the community of Hamilton, which could include up to 500 people. The governor has issued a proclamation of emergency for 18 counties and deployed 200 Washington national guardsmen to Skagit County to support flood fight and evacuations. WA has issued more than 100,000 sandbags with about 90% going to Snohomish, Washington.

Skagit County is evacuating the cities of Concrete, Hamilton, Cape Horn, Sedro Woolly, Rockport, Crawford, Burlington, and Marblemount. In Snohomish County evacuations are occurring in Robe Valley, Granite Falls, Sultan, and Indian Ridge. In Pierce county,  Middle Basin below Orting is being evacuated.

The Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is assessing the dikes on the Skagit River to determine if evacuations will be necessary in Burlington and Mount Vernon. USACE impact to levees will not be known until Tuesday.

Major road damage has occurred in at least 6 counties. Highway 2 closed in Sultan. Highway 5 being watched from Puyallup to Tacoma.

The FEMA state Liaison is enroute to the Washington state emergency operations center.
The FEMA X RRCC is activated to a level 3 for incident monitoring and planning.
FEMA Region X and Washington state PIO's are coordinating efforts.

In Washington, the Region X Director has been invited on an aerial tour the flooding situation with the Governor on Tuesday.

In Oregon, the Region X state and tribal Liaison Officer is currently attending meetings in Salem, or with state emergency management staff.  He is monitoring the situation in partnership with the state and is in daily contact with Region X.

River forecasts, Water Supply, and Hydrologic Watch and Warnings of the Pacific Northwest are available through the National Weather Service's Northwest River Forecast Center RSS Service (http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/). (Region X, Media Sources)

Anticipated Northwest Flooding Begins

West
Recent rains, approaching 20 inches in parts of the Olympic Peninsula since November 2nd, triggered widespread river flooding across western Washington. Moderate to heavy rain should continue throughout the day before precipitation tapers off to showers. Scattered showers will continue into Wednesday. The rivers could remain in flood stage at least through Thursday.

Mild, pacific air has raised the snow levels to near 10,000 feet. Colder air moving in behind this storm should lower the snow levels to near 4,000 feet by tonight.


Meanwhile, across Southern California, an offshore flow sent temperatures soaring into the 90s on Monday. Los Angeles set a record with a high of 95 degrees. The fire danger will remain high east of Los Angeles as the area experiences low relative humidity and gusty easterly winds.

South
Rain continues to trek eastward across the South; look for rain from Virginia to Georgia with thunderstorms from the Florida Panhandle down into central Florida. Sunny and mild conditions will be felt across the southern Plains.

Northeast
Look for rain to work its way up through the Middle Atlantic region with showers possibly reaching Upstate New York by late in the day. New England will stay dry until tonight.

Midwest
While spotty wet weather will be felt across the Midwest, dry conditions should prevail over much of the Plains and Corn Belt. Rain and showers are likely, however, from the Ohio Valley to the lower Great Lakes. The remainder of the Midwest should have a mostly sunny and warm day.

 

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
No tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday afternoon. 

Western Pacific:
No new activity to report. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:19:25 EDT