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National Situation Update: Saturday, November 4, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Pacific Storm Systems In The Northwest

West:   
A storm system will arrive late today bringing torrential rains from coastal Oregon up through western Washington.  Parts of the Olympic Peninsula may see up to ten inches of rain.  Wind gusts may exceed 75 mph across coastal Washington and the Puget Sound area.  Look for a light blanket of fresh snow in the northern and central Rockies.

South:  
Today there will be a few showers along the east coast of Florida with some late showers across the Rio Grande.  Freeze warnings are in effect from Virginia to Mississippi.  A light frost is possible as far south as Tallahassee, Florida.  High surf will persist along Florida's Atlantic Coast through the weekend. Breakers from 6-9 feet are likely accompanied by frequent wind gusts from 20 to 30 mph. A high risk of rip currents will also persist.

Midwest: 
Precipitation will be confined to a few rain and snow showers from the Upper Midwest to the western Great Lakes.

Northeast:  
Freeze warnings are posted from Maryland to the Virginia Tidewater region for the morning, while lows in the twenties will stretch from New England to southern Virginia.  A band of lake-effect snow will dump from four to seven inches overnight southeast of Lake Ontario for counties in Upstate New York like Oswego, Oneida and northern Onondaga.  Snow will also fall east of Lake Erie over counties like Chautauqua and Cattaraugus, and then the snow will wind down for the remainder of the day. (National Weather Service, media sources)

The Strength & Impacts of El Niño

At present, weak El Niño conditions (warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, and other indicators) have developed across the tropical Pacific during the past few months. Current conditions and various forecasts imply that El Niño conditions may strengthen during the next few months. "However, this event is not expected to reach the magnitude of the very strong 1997-1998 El Niño episode," said Vernon Kousky, research meteorologist at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

El Niño events influence the position and strength of the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean, which in turn affects the winter precipitation and temperature patterns across the country. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is responsible for forecasting and monitoring El Niño events for the U.S. Over the years, NOAA scientists have found that there tends to be some variety in impacts among El Niño events. The stronger the event, the more likely it becomes that much of the nation will experience a warmer than average winter. However, it is important to note, "El Niño does not always mean impending disaster," he added.

The Good and Bad Sides of El Niño
The state of Florida illustrates most reliably the good and bad sides of El Niño. For example, scientists at the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies at Florida State University, a NOAA partner, note that during El Niño winters the probability of severe freezes in the Southeast is very low. Major freezes in central Florida in the last 100 years occurred during El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO, neutral years. The threat of wildfires and drought also are greatly reduced in Florida due to expected above normal precipitation.

However, studies conducted at the NOAA National Weather Service field office in Melbourne, Fla., find when there is an El Niño event there is an increase in severe weather activity during the winter and spring for Florida. Floridians should remember in later winter and spring killer tornadoes tend to occur late at night and NOAA Weather Radio can be an invaluable tool for alerting people of potential danger after they've turned off the TV and gone to bed. (NOAA, NWS)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Sunday.
Central and Eastern Pacific:
Tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.
Western Pacific:
No new activity to report. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, NHC, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

• November 3, 2006 four earthquakes between 3.1 (minor) and 4.4 (light) magnitude, 8 miles in depth, were reported 5 miles from Ocotillo, California. No damage reported. No federal assistance anticipated.
  
• November 3, 2006 two earthquakes between 4.3 and 4.8 (light) magnitude were reported in Aleutian Islands, Alaska.  No damage reported. No federal assistance anticipated.    (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)
  

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

" Due to serve storms and flooding of October 15, 2006, the Governor of Texas requested an expedited major disaster declaration on October 31, 2006 for Individual Assistance, Public Assistance and Hazard Mitigation for 10 counties.   (FEMA HQ)