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National Situation Update: Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Rain in the South

South:   A significant storm system will gain strength over the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma.  Rain and thunderstorms from Texas up through the southern Plains and eastward to the Mississippi River.  The flood potential around the rivers of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana remain in effect.   From the Carolinas to Georgia frost and freeze warnings start the morning.
 
West:   From the northern Rockies to the Front Range conditions will bring rain and snow from Montana through Colorado. Eastern and southeastern Colorado will see rain change to snow by afternoon with wind gusts around 50 mph. The National Weather Service has issued a blizzard watch for these areas.  Gusty winds, will affect several areas including northern interior California (where critical fire weather conditions may develop), the Great Basin, and high plateau country of the Southwest. 

Midwest:   Weather conditions will deteriorate across the Midwest, spreading rain up through the central Plains and eastward to the Mississippi Valley.   

Northeast:   The Northeast will remain chilly and blustery as a northwest flow of cold air persists across the region. Occasional rain and snow showers from Northern New England, back through Upstate New York and down to northern and western Pennsylvania.  (NWS)

Swarm Of Earthquakes Reported Near Old Faithful

A swarm of more than 70 small earthquakes shook the ground near Old Faithful geyser earlier this month. The largest was a magnitude 2.4, barely enough to be felt. The swarm of 74 quakes lasted several hours on October 14, 2006 according to information recently released from the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.

The tight cluster of earthquakes was moderate compared with others in Yellowstone's past, including one in April 2004 in which more than 400 earthquakes were recorded over three days.

Park officials said the earthquakes were more likely caused by the underground movement of hot water and gas, rather than the migration of magma.

The largest swarm recorded in Yellowstone was in the fall of 1985 when about 1,800 earthquakes, ranging in magnitude from 1 to 4.9, shook the park. Around the same time, a huge caldera stopped slowly rising and began slowly falling.  (Media Sources)

Low Level Avian Flu H5 And N1 Found In Michigan, Ohio And Confirmation On Results From Illinois And Montana.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has taken a significant step forward in the global effort to prepare for an influenza pandemic by publishing the Global Pandemic Influenza Action Plan to Increase Vaccine Supply. In developing this plan world's experts in influenza, immunization, vaccine research, and manufacturing, and the WHO has set the world's sights on the decisive path forward to increase the global capacity to produce pandemic influenza vaccine.

In the past year, the H5N1 strain of avian flu has spread to more than 40 additional countries and has led to the deaths of hundreds of millions of additional birds, which has heightened concern about the possibility of a human flu pandemic. Furthermore, the number of avian flu cases in humans has more than doubled to more than 250 cases in 10 countries. Tragically, more than half of those persons infected have died. To date, H5N1 avian influenza has remained primarily an animal disease, but should the virus acquire the ability for sustained transmission among humans, the potential for an influenza pandemic would have grave consequences for global public health.   (CDC, HHS, WHO, USGS, USFW)

FEMA Region VI Paul Preparedness

Tropical Storm Paul is currently southwest of Baja Peninsula. According the National Weather Service (NWS), it will become an upper-level system, forecasted to move into Texas tonight and early tomorrow.

South Texas could expect 1 to 2 inches of rain and NWS is forecasting up to 3 or 4 inches in isolated areas as the cold front moves into Texas.

Beginning today there will be two calls per day, at 10:00 am EDT and 5:00 pm EDT between the NWS and FEMA Region VI. 

FEMA Region VI is continuing to monitor the situation and remains in close contact with NWS and the State of Texas.  (FEMA Region VI, NWS)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical storm formation is not expected through tomorrow.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
Outer squalls associated with Paul are affecting southern Baja California.

A Tropical Storm warning remains in effect for Baja California from Agua Blanca southward on the west coast and from La Paz southward on the east coast.

At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Paul was located about 75 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Paul is moving between the north-northeast and northeast near 9 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today with a gradual decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph. with higher gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.   

There is no threat to the U.S. or any U.S. territories.

No tropical cyclones are expected through tomorrow afternoon.

Western Pacific:
No significant activity to report. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

At 5:26 PM EDT October 24, 2006,  there was a light (4.4) magnitude earthquake centered 42 miles west of Petrolia, California and was 3.9 miles deep in the crust.  No reports of injuries or damage have been received.

At 1:58AM EDT October 24, 2006, a light (3.5) magnitude earthquake centered 41 miles west southwest of Rincon, Puerto Rico. No reports of injuries or damage have been received.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, FEMA Region IX)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1665-DR-NY was declared effective October 24, 2006 for Severe Storms and Flooding that occurred October 12-13, 2006 and continuing. Individual Assistance and Public Assistance for Erie, Genesee, Niagara, and Orleans Counties and assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant program for all of the state is authorized. (FEMA HQ )