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National Situation Update: Saturday, October 14, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Northeast:

Buffalo, New York picked up almost 24 inches of snow from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. The next problem for Buffalo and surrounding areas will be the rapidly melting snow and clean up from the downed trees and power lines.  Frost and freezing temperatures are expected for most of Vermont including the Northeast Corridor from southern New England to Virginia. Only the downtown areas of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington should avoid damage to tender vegetation. Today rain showers mixed with snow will plague Upstate New York.

Midwest:

The Midwest and the Great Lakes area will clear today as the snow and rain showers recede back north into Canada. A storm in the southern Midwest will begin to bring heavy showers into Kansas and Missouri, and continue through the Ohio Valley, while a new cold front moves across the Dakotas and Minnesota spreading a separate set of showers across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

West:

A series of storms off the California coast will move across the Southwest and into the south-central states. Showers and thunderstorms will advance from Southern California into the Four Corners' States area causing some localized flooding in the burn areas around Southern California and Arizona. A cold front moving across the Northwest will bring showers and mountain snow. The mountains and high Plains will see some snow to add to the wintry feel.

South:

Frost and freezing temperatures are forecasted across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. West of the Mississippi temperatures will be rapidly warming up as the next storm system approaches. A Southwestern storm is expected to bring heavy rain to central and eastern Texas and possibly Louisiana, some areas could be drenched with as much as 3 to 6 inches of rain as moisture streams northward out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Buffalo Early Season Snow Emergency

A rare early October snowstorm left parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest blanketed with 2 feet of snow the morning of Friday October 13, prompting widespread blackouts, closing schools and halting traffic.  The snow downed scores of tree limbs and toppled power lines, leaving more than 220,000 customers without electricity in western New York.

On October 12, 8.3 inches of heavy snow set the record for the "snowiest" October day in Buffalo in the 137-year history of the weather service. The previous record of 6 inches was set Oct. 31, 1917.  By early Friday, 14 inches of snow had been recorded at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport, with reports of 2 feet elsewhere according to a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

A 105-mile stretch of the New York State Thruway from Rochester to Dunkirk, southwest of Buffalo, was closed Friday morning because of the snow.  The Buffalo Police Department received more than 3,000 calls late October 12 and about two-thirds were related to the weather. 
According to media sources, the Erie County Health Department was quoted as saying that two people were killed in weather-related traffic accidents, while a third person died after being hit by a falling tree limb while shoveling snow. 

The State reports 392,000 National Grid and New York State Electric & Gas Corporation (NYSEG) customers are without power. The Mayor of Buffalo reports at least 70% of homes in Buffalo are without power. Of the 700 crews committed to the utility restoration effort 220 forestry crews are working to remove downed and damaged trees so line crews can work safely and quickly. Representatives from National Grid anticipate total power restoration by October 21, 2006.

It has been reported that the water system has been resorted to portions of Erie County and generators are en route to assist in the restoration of pumps in the remaining areas. Erie County has made arrangements for four water tankers to be available for fire fighting.

Dozens of schools were closed and states of emergency were declared in the City of Tonawanda, and towns of Cheektowaga, Elma, Lancaster, Akron, and Depew.  Unnecessary driving was banned in several cities and towns.  80 percent of the roads were impassable in Amherst according to a Police Department spokesperson.

The combination of melting snow and rain showers overnight followed by temperatures warming into the 40s Saturday brings the potential for some flooding problems.  Since most of the heavy snow occurred north of headwaters of the major streams and creeks, the main risk for flooding will be in urban areas and low lying areas that are more susceptible to flooding.  The flood watch continues through the evening of October 14 for Niagara, Orleans, northern Erie and Genesee counties including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo and Batavia. (NWS, NYSEMO, ARC, CNN, FEMA Region II, Governor Pataki's press conference, Erie County Health Department)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:

Tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Depression (TD) 04C is located approximately 715 miles southwest of Honolulu, moving Northeast near 5 mph. Sustained winds at 35 mph. 

Although Depression Four-C is unlikely to have a big impact with its winds, it does have the potential to produce heavy rainfall. Moisture from Four-C may move north along the front approaching the main Hawaiian Islands and enhance precipitation.

A flash flood warning is in effect from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning for Kauai, Oahu, and all of Maui County.

Western Pacific:

No threats to U.S. territories or possessions.
(USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity to report.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Virginia, Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for five counties are scheduled to begin on Monday, October 16, 2006.   (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity
Initial attack activity: Light (39new fires)
New large fires: 0
Large fires contained: 0
Uncontained large fires: 3
Area Command Teams:  0
Type 1 IMTs committed: 1
Type 2 IMTs committed:  0
Fire Use Teams: 0

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1659-DR-NM, Amendment #4-Public Assistance has been approved for two counties, Rio Arriba and Taos.  (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:22:17 EDT