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National Situation Update: Thursday, October 12, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

National Weather Summary

Midwest:
Today a slow moving storm from southern Canada will bring snow and strong winds with expected gusts over 50 mph into the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. Blizzard conditions are forecasted at times as the storm move southward slowly.
Tonight in upper western Michigan some areas could receive up to two feet of snow by the time it's over. In other areas of Michigan, northern Indiana and Ohio there will be snow showers and cold blowing winds.

Northeast:
Heavy rains are expected in parts of New England and eastern Maine in advance of a very cold front moving into the Northeast from the Midwest, rain showers will move into West Virginia during the afternoon.
High temperatures are expected to range from the 40s to the 70s in western New York and western Pennsylvania and south in to eastern Virginia.
Gusty winds will bring a cold front making temperatures drop during the afternoon in much of New York and Pennsylvania.

South:
A cold front will move southward through the South today, reaching from western North Carolina to southern Mississippi to south Texas.

A few light showers are forecasted in Tennessee, Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. Along the western end of the front, more widespread rain showers and thunderstorm are likely in southeast Texas and possibly western Louisiana. With scattered showers and thundershowers in the Florida Peninsula.

West:
The West will be dry today except for a few stray showers or snow flurries over the northern and central Rockies.
High temperatures will range from the 40s across eastern Montana, northern Wyoming and the Colorado Rockies to the 90s in southwest Arizona and parts of Southern California. (Media sources) 

Utah Assists Navajo Reservation after Storm

Heavy rains and flooding, causing erosion and debris flows, that moved through the Wayne and San Juan Counties area October 6, hampered repairs the Navajo Reservation were conducting on a water storage facility.  Water has been trucked in since the road system has been damaged.

Local jurisdictions responded with equipment to clear soil erosion and debris. Wayne County and Navajo Reservation officials are conducting damage assessments.  The Navajo Reservation has declared an emergency and has requested that San Juan County provide assistance. 

Utah Office of Emergency Services (UT OES) has dispatched a liaison officer to the Navajo Reservation, and is continuing to monitor and collect damage information from the affected areas.
Region VIII continues to monitor the situation and coordinate with the UT OES.  There has been no request for Federal assistance at this time. (FEMA Region VIII)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized areas of showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move west-northwestward across the Windward and Leeward Islands into the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next two days.  No significant development is expected.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Olivia is located about 1,000 miles west-southwest of southern tip of Baja California, moving east. Olivia is forecast to dissipate in the next two days.
Tropical Depression Norman is centered about 650 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving east-northeast. System should dissipate in the next two days. No further advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Storm (TS) 21W (Soulik) located approximately 560 miles north-northwest of Guam has been tracking west-northwestward at 10 mph. This system poses no threat to US territories or interests. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity

• Initial attack activity: Light (70 new fires)
• New large fires: 0
• Large fires contained: 0
• Uncontained large fires: 3
• Area Command Teams:
• Type 1 IMTs committed: 1
• Type 2 IMTs committed:
• Fire Use Teams: 0

2005 (1/1/05 -10/11/05):  Fires: 54,557; Acres: 8,194,839
2006 (1/1/06 - 10/11/06):  Fires: 84884; Acres: 9,263,906

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)