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National Situation Update: Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

National Weather Summary

West:  The West will be dry, except for rain and snow showers in the northern and central Rockies and the immediately adjacent High Plains. High temperatures will range from well below seasonal averages in Montana and Wyoming (30s) to over 90 in southwest Arizona and the deserts of Southern California.

Midwest: There is very cold polar air behind the frontal system crossing the Canadian border today. With the low over the Great Lakes and the cold front extending southwest to Kansas and then northwest to the Canadian-Idaho border the upper Midwest can expect wintry weather. Ahead of the storm rain will fall over much of the Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi Valley and the Ohio River Valley. On the back side of the storm the front and its cold air mass will bring snow and cold rain. Severe thunderstorms are possible in Ohio, southeast Indiana and Kentucky later today. Gale warnings are posted for Lakes Superior and Michigan. Winter storm watches are posted for the Arrowhead of Minnesota, far northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. High temperatures will range from the 30s in the Dakotas, Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin (behind the front) to the 60s in the Ohio Valley  southern Missouri and southern Kansas (ahead of the front).

South: A cold front will produce scattered showers and severe thunderstorms over Tennessee and parts of the Deep South.  Under high pressure west of the Mississippi River, conditions will be dry with only a few isolated showers or thunderstorms along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. High temperatures are forecast to range from the 60s in the northern parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas and the Texas Panhandle to the 90s in south Texas.

Northeast: The Great Lakes storm system will produce showers over western portions of the Northeast.  Temperatures near or a little below average for the season ranging from the 50s in much of New England and eastern New York to the 70s on the Delaware, Maryland, Virginia (DelMarVa) Peninsula and in eastern and central Virginia. (NWS, Media Sources)

Flooding in Alaska

A deep low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska produced heavy rain (accumulations of 8 to 10.8 inches) from 8-10 October.

The Trans Alaska Pipeline (carrying crude oil) was partially shutdown along its entire length from Prudhoe Bay to Valdez. The transit was reduced to 70,000 barrels from 700,000 barrels, but is expected to resume full operations today. The primary cause of the shutdown was due to a damaged pipeline monitoring system,

There have been multiple road closures, power outages, and several small communities have been isolated. In addition to the heavy rainfall, there was a coastal storm surge resulting in many areas being non-accessible for damage assessments.

About 200 voluntary evacuations from many out lying areas have been reported. The town of Valdez is isolated due to mud slides and damaged roads. The Valdez airport is operational but the Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) NavAids are down. The city of Seward and the Kenai Peninsula Borough have declared a local disaster asking for state assistance.

Red Cross shelters have opened in Seward and Moose Pass, shelter population numbers not available. Pet shelters have been established.

The rain is forecasted to diminish this morning and water levels are expected to drop today. (FEMA Region X, Media sources)

Mild Winter Forecast For Most Of The Nation

Most of the country will see winter temperatures above normal though slightly cooler than last year's very warm winter, according to the winter weather outlook announced on 10 October by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). According to scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, who produce the outlook, drought conditions also are expected to improve in most areas of the Southwest, while some drought conditions are anticipated in parts of the Pacific Northwest.

Weak El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to persist through the winter, possibly strengthening during the next few months to an event of moderate strength. However, this event is not expected to reach the magnitude of the very strong 1997-1998 El Niño event.

"The strengthening El Niño event will influence the position and strength of the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean, which in turn will affect winter precipitation and temperature patterns across the country," said Michael Halpert, lead forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "This event is likely to result in fewer cold air outbreaks in the country than would be expected to occur in a typical non-El Niño winter." The winter outlook reflects a blend of factors associated with weak to moderate strength El Niño events across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, combined with longer-term trends.

Seasonal forecasters also expect warmer than average temperatures across the West, the Southwest, the Plains states, the Midwest, most of the Northeast, and the northern mid-Atlantic, as well as most of Alaska. Near-average temperatures are expected for parts of the Southeast, while below-average temperatures are anticipated for Hawaii. Maine, the southern mid-Atlantic, the Tennessee Valley, and much of Texas have equal chances of warmer, cooler and near-normal temperatures this winter.

The outlook for winter precipitation calls for wetter than average conditions across the Southwest from Southern California to Texas and for Florida and the south Atlantic Coast. Drier than average conditions are expected in the Tennessee Valley, the northern Rockies, the Pacific Northwest and Hawaii. Other regions have equal chances of drier, wetter or near normal precipitation. The pattern of rainfall in the West is expected to improve drought conditions across Arizona and Texas, but result in drought across parts of Idaho, Washington and Oregon.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center will update the U.S. Winter Weather Outlook on October 19 and again on November 16, 2006. (Excerpt from NOAA magazine http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2716.htm)

Virginia Flooding

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine declared a statewide emergency Monday after as much as 12 inches of rain fell on central and southeastern Virginia during the weekend.

Swollen by heavy weekend rainfall, the Blackwater River crested Tuesday at nearly a record level, flooding parts of the city of Franklin in  southeastern VA with four feet of water. No injuries were reported. The Blackwater River crested at 22.8 feet just north of the city at about 8 am Tuesday, said Keith Lynch, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service. That was the highest crest since a reading of 26.4 feet after Hurricane Floyd in September 1999.

Downtown Franklin had been closed since Monday because of flooding. At least 70 people had been evacuated from low-lying areas. As many as 120 businesses and 35 homes may have suffered some flood damage, officials said, but authorities had not yet been able to fully assess the damage.

The high water also may have caused the derailment early Tuesday of four empty CSX train cars on tracks over the river. (Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands is generating thunderstorms and gusty winds.  The system has become a little better organized; additional development is not expected through Thursday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Olivia is located about 1,100 miles west-southwest of southern tip of Baja California, moving northwest. Tropical Depression Norman is centered about 660 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving north-northwest. These systems pose no threat to U.S. at this time.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Storm (TS) 21W (Soulik) located approximately 500 miles north of Guam has been tracking west-northwestward at 18 mph. This system poses no threat to US territories or interests. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On Tuesday, October 10, 2006 at 4:32 pm EDT a light (magnitude 3.3) earthquake occurred 1 mile west of Mount St. Helens Volcano, Washington. There were no reports of damage or injuries.(USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity

Initial attack activity: Light (73 new fires)
New large fires: 1
Large fires contained:   1
Uncontained large fires:  3
Area Command Teams:

Type 1 IMTs committed:  1
Type 2 IMTs committed:  0

Fire Use Teams: 0

Predictive Service Discussion: 
Winds in northern California will diminish today with a warm, dry offshore flow expected for the rest of the week.  A low pressure system off the southern California coast will bring some showers to central California while the south remains mostly dry through Thursday.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)