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National Situation Update: Thursday, October 5, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West:   Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along two fronts: from western Wyoming / southeastern Idaho southward into Arizona, and from south-central Oregon into northern California. Light snow on the higher elevations of the northern Sierras.

Midwest:   A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in eastern Kentucky, and a shower or two in the Ohio Valley and southeastern Missouri, but the remainder of the Midwest and Great Plains should be dry.

South:   A cold front in the Deep South from the north will scatter showers and thunderstorms over eastern Tennessee and North Carolina. Isolated storms over northern Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. Farther south, a shower or thundershower throughout south Texas and the southern tip of Florida.

Northeast:   A cold front south through the Mid-Atlantic states will deliver a few showers and thunderstorms to Virginia and West Virginia.  Most of the region will be below average for early October.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Hurricane Forecast Downgraded

Dr. Gray and the Colorado State University tropical forecast team downgraded the remainder of this year's Atlantic hurricane season predictions, citing El Nino conditions for the reduced number of storms.

The updated forecast is less intense than earlier predictions, with two tropical storms expected, one reaching hurricane strength.      (Colorado State University)

Predictive Service Discussion:

California is predicted to receive rain and snow in the mountains this week. Warmer and drier is expected for Friday and through the weekend. Florida and the southeastern states will experience dry weather.   (National Interagency Fire Center, National Interagency Coordination Center Media Sources)

Bar Fire Complex

Bar Fire Complex in Trinity County, California is 46% contained. The fire has consumed 98,355 acres, with 391 residences threatened. This complex consists of three fires which are located 14 miles northwest of Weaverville. Estimated containment date is October 15, 2006. Approximately, 600 personnel are currently assigned to the fire.  Road closures are also in place.  (Region IX)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing new to report. (FEMA HQ)

Bar Harbor, Maine Earthquake Causes Water Level to Drop

Fractured bedrock from a minor earthquake of 3.9 magnitude (depth 3.1 miles) October 2 caused the water level in a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring well to drop more than 2 ½ feet. Nearly 17 hours later, the groundwater level was still dropping, according to scientists at the USGS Maine Water Science Center in Augusta.  Hydrologists call the change in the well "dramatic," and note that well-water users could notice changes in their drinking water and possibly a change in availability of water.  In late September this region, about four miles south-southeast of Bar Harbor, experienced two other earthquakes between 2.5 and 3.4 magnitude (depth 4.2 miles) centered in the came location. (USGS)

Hurricane Hunting Drones

In southern Florida scientists are ready to launch small unmanned drones into a new venue: Hurricanes. Drones are better known for their use in a wide variety of military activities. The small, unmanned aircraft will explore tropical storms at lower levels that are too dangerous for larger manned aircraft to probe. With safety a main factor, unknown parts of a hurricane can be explored at a minimal risk.

Meteorologists hope the information gathered will help provide new details about wind speeds and how a hurricane strengthens at sea level. Even with all the satellite and radar imagery available, scientists know very little about the intensifying of a hurricane at the oceans surface.

These drones, also known as Aerosondes, are remarkably light, but also very sturdy. The Aerosondes can fly as long as 20 hours. Sensors on the wing will transmit basic meteorological information to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).  Last year a drone flew into Tropical Storm Ophelia recording temperature, humidity and wind speeds. The aim is for similar measurements and predicting the intensity from hurricanes.

Piloted hurricane hunter aircraft typically fly into hurricanes at 10,000 feet up, nearly two miles above the surface, sometimes dropping to as low as 5,000 feet. The risks rise as the planes descend. The Aerosonde, can to drop to 500 feet or less over the sea surface. The information collected is expected to help scientists better understand the air-sea connection in hurricanes and to make more accurate predictions of their intensity.  (Media sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical storm formation is not expected through today.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
Tropical storm formation is not expected through today.

Western Pacific:
There are no threats to US territories or interests.    (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No activity to report. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity to report.

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity

• Initial attack activity: Light (75 new fires)
• New large fires: 0
• Large fires contained: 2
• Uncontained large fires: 5
• Area Command Teams: 0
• Type 1 IMTs committed: 1
• Type 2 IMTs committed: 2
• Fire Use Teams: 0

2005 (1/1/05 - 9/29/05):  Fires: 53,175; Acres: 8,160,688
2006 (1/1/06 - 10/04/06):  Fires: 84,214; Acres: 9,102,776

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Governor of Alaska has requested a major declaration for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance for the City of Hooper Bay, and Hazard Mitigation statewide, as a result of an urban fire August 3-4, 2006.  (FEMA HQ)