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National Situation Update: Sunday, October 1, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Northeast

Showers and some thunderstorms will remain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and western New York and a soaking rain will move from eastern New York to New England. Rainfall could total between 1 and 2 inches in the Berkshires.

Midwest

As the storm moves into the Northeast, the Plains and Midwest will enjoy a rain-free day.

South

Most of the South will be dry with warm-to-hot temperatures. A few thunderstorms may occur in southern Florida. Isolated thunderstorms may hit a few locations from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas today.

West

Changes are expected for the West and during the transition a cold front will come southward into the Northwest. Pacific disturbances coming inland through California will begin to trigger some thunderstorms from the Sierra and Oregon Cascades into the Rockies. Parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern California, the Great Basin, Rockies and high Plains will see showers and scattered thunderstorms. Winds will be locally strong and gusty, particularly over the Desert Southwest.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:

At 5:00 am EDT, October 1, 2006, the center of Hurricane Isaac was located near latitude 33.1 north longitude 60.1 west or about 280 miles east-northeast of Bermuda.

Isaac is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph. A turn to the north with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts.  Isaac is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

Hurricane Isaac is not a threat to land, or to any United States interests.

Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected through tomorrow.

Central and Eastern Pacific:

Tropical storm formation is not expected through today.

Western Pacific:

At 8:00 pm EDT, October 1, 2006, Typhoon (TY) 18w (Xangsane) is located approximately 69 miles east-southeast of Hue, Vietnam.  Typhoon (TY) 18w (Xangsane) has tracked westward at 13 mph over the past six hours. The maximum significant wave height is 23 feet.
Typhoon Xangsane does not pose a threat to United States territories or interests.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity to report. (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3

National Fire Activity
Initial attack activity: Light (41 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Large fires contained: 0
Uncontained large fires: 8
Area Command Teams: 1
Type 1 IMTs committed: 4
Type 2 IMTs committed: 3
Fire Use Teams: 0

2005 (1/1/05 - 9/29/05):  Fires: 53,175; Acres: 8,160,688
2006 (1/1/06 - 9/29/06):  Fires: 83,752; Acres: 9,074,358

Predictive Services Discussion:  A cooling trend and increasing humidity is on tap for California the next few days. A low pressure trough developing along the coast will produce an onshore flow in California with cooler temperatures and increasing humidity. There will also be a chance of light showers next week.   (National Interagency Fire Center,National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)