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National Situation Update: Friday, September 29, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Midwest

Look for showers across the Upper Midwest as the weather system drops down from Canada. By Saturday, a low pressure trough will keep showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast from the Great Lakes to the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. Temperatures will be cool.

South

Much of the South will see a relatively cool and dry day. The exceptions will be a few showers around the Outer Banks of North Carolina and across the mountains of Virginia and North Carolina. West of the Mississippi, a warming trend will be in full swing by the weekend. This warmth will spread to the north and east next week due to a changing weather pattern in the upper atmosphere.

West

Most areas will be rain-free through Saturday but a few showers may pop up over coastal sections of Washington and Oregon on Sunday. The Great Basin and Intermountain West may see more showers and thunderstorms early next week. Meanwhile, for the fires of Southern California, temperatures will lower this weekend as the moist marine layer deepens. Cooler air and increasing moisture will help to curb the fires and lower the additional fire threat. On the downside, onshore winds will be on the increase Saturday and Sunday which could spread the existing fires more quickly. High temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees above average today, except slightly below average in coastal California. This means 90s and low 100s in the Desert Southwest, 80s in the Great Basin and 70s across the lower elevations of Montana, Wyoming, Utah and Colorado.

Northeast

Much of the Northeast will have a cool Friday with occasional showers while parts of New England may see a few thunderstorms. After a mainly dry Saturday, another weather system is due on Saturday night and Sunday resulting in more showers and scattered thunderstorms. Over the next 3 days high temperatures will range from 50s and 60s for most, and 70s across eastern Virginia. (NWS, Media Sources)
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/fcstsummary.html?from=footer&ref=/

Volcano Activity

 Fourpeaked Volcano, Alaska. Current Level of Concern Color Code: YELLOW.  Cloudy and rainy conditions have prevented any new visual or satellite observations of Fourpeaked. The limited seismic data now being received at Alaska Volcano Observatory do not indicate significant volcanic activity. (Alaska Volcano Observatory) http://www.avo.alaska.edu/volcanoes/volcinfo.php?volcname=Fourpeaked

E. coli Update

As of 1 PM (EDT) September 28, 2006, 187 persons infected with the outbreak strain of E. coli O157 have been reported to CDC from 26 states. Among the ill, 97(52%) were hospitalized, 29 (16%) developed a type of kidney failure called hemolytic-uremic syndrome (HUS), and an adult in Wisconsin died. Of those who provided the date when their illnesses began, 82% became ill between August 19 and September 5. 32% of those infected with the outbreak strain became ill between August 30 - Sept. 1st.

Two deaths among suspected cases also have been reported. Idaho is investigating a suspected case of a 2-year-old child with HUS who died on September 20 and was reported to have had recently consumed fresh spinach. E. coli O157 has not been detected in the child. Maryland is investigating a suspected case in an elderly woman who died on September 13 and had recently consumed fresh spinach.

E. coli O157 was isolated from 9 packages of spinach supplied by patients living in 7 states. All packages were marketed as baby spinach and labeled with the same brand name. The "DNA fingerprints" of these E. coli match that of the outbreak strain.

Timeline for Reporting of Cases with the Outbreak Strain of E. coli O157
To find cases in an outbreak of E. coli O157 infections, public health laboratories perform a kind of "DNA fingerprinting" on E. coli O157 laboratory samples. Investigators determine whether the "DNA fingerprint" pattern of E. coli O157 bacteria from one patient is the same as that from other patients in the outbreak and from the contaminated food. Bacteria with the same "DNA fingerprint" are likely to come from the same source.

A series of events occurs between the time a patient is infected and the time public health officials can determine that the patient is part of an outbreak. (see diagram)

The time from the beginning of the patient's illness to the confirmation that he or she was part of an outbreak is typically about 2-3 weeks; the average in this outbreak so far has been 15 days. Case counts in the midst of an outbreak investigation are interpreted within this context. (National Center for Infectious Diseases) http://www.cdc.gov/foodborne/ecolispinach/

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:

At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 29.2 north longitude 55.6 west or about 585 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Isaac is moving erratically toward the northwest near 5 mph.  This general motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours.  (NHC) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Central and Eastern Pacific:

There are no current threats.

Western Pacific:

There are no current threats. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

No new activity to report. (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program) http://earthquake.usgs.gov/index.php

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity
Initial attack activity: Light (39 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Large fires contained: 0
Uncontained large fires: 11
Area Command Teams: 1
Type 1 IMTs committed: 4
Type 2 IMTs committed: 3

Fire Use Teams:  Australia and New Zealand assisting with 24 fire specialists and managers. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Interagency Coordination Center) http://www.nifc.gov/fireinfo/nfn.html

Day Fire (Los Padres National Forest): 159,281 acres at 41 percent contained. This fire is 22 miles northwest of Santa Clarita, California. Structures, power and gas lines, and communication and archeological sites are threatened.  Evacuations and road closures are in effect. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Interagency Coordination Center, media sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)