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National Situation Update: Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Midwest
The Great Plains and western portions of the Midwest today are forecasted to be colder and have gusty winds as a Canadian cold front moves southward and eastward. Scattered showers and isolated severe thunderstorms will accompany the front with the action focusing on areas from the Great Lakes to the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Behind the front, scattered showers will dampen the Plains and Upper Midwest. Some spots will remain dry in Missouri, eastern Iowa and Kentucky.
 High temperatures will range from the wind-chilled 50s along the Great Lakes region, to the 80s in the southern Midwest states.

South
Most of the South will remain dry today, except southern Florida where there are a few showers and thundershowers.  Arkansas is forecasted for afternoon thunderstorms along a new cold front. High temperatures will be mostly in the 80s.  In eastern Tennessee, the western Carolinas and northern Georgia the temperatures will be in the 70s; the 90s are expected for much of Texas, southern Oklahoma and far southeastern Florida.

West
Scattered showers are expected behind a cold front in parts of Montana and Wyoming today. The West is forecasted to be dry. Gusty winds will bring colder air into the eastern portions of Montana, Wyoming and Colorado with temperatures primarily in the 40s and 50s. The Pacific Northwest should continue to be unseasonably warm with temperatures in the 70s and 80s.  High temperatures will range from the 40s in Wyoming's Big Horn Mountains to over 100 in southeast California and southwest Arizona.

Northeast
Morning frost is expected in the Adirondacks and parts of northern New England today. Afternoon highs will reach seasonable levels in advance of a cold front pushing through the Great Lakes going southeast.  Throughout the Northeast, highs will reach the 60s and 70s. The Northeast will be moderately sunny and dry.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Warmest Levels in Nearly 12,000 Years

NASA expert climatologists have published a new study this week which found that because of a rapid warming trend over the past 30 years, the Earth is now heading towards the warmest levels in nearly 12,000 years. This warming trend is forcing a migration of plants and animals closer to the poles. Plant and animal species are adjusted to living within specific climate areas but the warming of recent decades has caused many species to migrate poleward. A study in Nature magazine (2003) found that 1,700 plant, animal and insect species moved poleward at an average rate of about 4 miles per decade in the second half of the 20th century.

The migration rate is slow enough to keep up with the current rate of movement of temperature zones which has reached about 25 miles per decade in the period from 1975 to 2005. The study which was published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences also reveals that the Earth has been warming at a rate of approximately .36 degrees Fahrenheit per decade for the past 30 years. (The Weather Channel)

Day Fire

(Los Padres National Forest): 143,000+ acres at 43 percent contained. This fire is 22 miles northwest of Santa Clarita, California. 300 residences, power and gas lines, and communication and archeological sites are threatened and evacuations are in effect. Governor declared State of Emergency Sunday for Ventura County. 3,525 personnel assigned using two incident management teams. Cost of firefighting efforts so far exceeds $44,000,000.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Interagency Coordination Center, media sources, FEMA Region IX)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG-2677-CA was approved on September 26 for the Day Fire located in Ventura County where 143,000+ acres are involved and which threatening 300 single family homes, 5 businesses, 2 large camps and a natural gas line. 600 people told to evacuate, 1 shelter has been established. (FEMA HQ)

Volcano Activity

Observers flying over Fourpeaked volcano, 95 miles southwest of Homer, Alaska, noted vents vigorously emitting steam and other volcanic gasses. Indicators suggested new magma at shallow levels and the possibility of an eruption.  Based on all currently available evidence, Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) believes that an eruption from Fourpeaked in the next days to weeks is possible. (Alaska Volcano Observatory)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Cloudiness and showers associated with a low pressure center had not become any better organized Tuesday, however, this system still has some potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next day or two as it continues to move to the northwest around 10 mph. There are no current threats.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
There are no current threats.

Western Pacific:
There are no current threats. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity to report.  (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Missouri Joint Federal/State PDA results for Howell, Iron, Madison, Perry, Phelps, Reynolds, Ripley and St. Francois Counties (8 of the 12 requested PDA counties) are:  Destroyed - 72; Major -70; Minor - 207; Affected - 144.  (FEMA Region VII)  

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity
Initial attack activity: Light (54 new fires)

• New large fires: 2
• Large fires contained: 2
• Uncontained large fires: 11
• Area Command Teams: 1
• Type 1 IMTs committed: 3
• Type 2 IMTs committed: 4
• Fire Use Teams: 0

Fire Use Teams:  Australia and New Zealand assisting with 24 fire specialists and managers. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Governor of Alaska has requested a major disaster declaration as a result of severe flooding, landslides, and mudslides, which occurred between August15-25, 2006. The declaration was requested for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance for the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, the Chugach Regional Education Assistance Area (REAA), and the Denali Borough, and Hazard Mitigation Statewide.  (FEMA HQ)