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National Situation Update: Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

A cold front connected to a low pressure center moving into the northern Great Lakes will sweep southward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest tomorrow.  The wettest conditions are expected in the Arrowhead of Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

South
Scattered showers and thundershowers expected in Florida.  The rest of the south will experience sunny skies. 

West
As a cold front moves southward out of Canada, there will be a possibility of a few sprinkles in Montana.  Otherwise, the West will be mild to warm and dry.  Temperatures will range from the 50s in parts of the northern and central Rockies to over 100 in southeast California and southwest Arizona.

Northeast
Aside from a couple of possible stray showers in northern New England, dry conditions and sunshine will be the norm in the Northeast.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Missouri Severe Storms and Tornadoes Updates

The National Weather Service documented 10 tornadoes from the weekend storms that swept across Missouri on September 22-23, 2006.

Butler County:  The City of Neelyville had flash flooding and conducted sandbagging operations.

Madison County:  Rural areas in the county report 1 home with moderate damage and 4 homes with minor damage.

New Madrid County:  The City of Marston reported flash flooding.

Oregon County:  The County reported power outages in rural areas and downed trees.

Shannon County:  The County reported power outages and downed trees.

IA PDA teams started assessments at 9:00 am EDT on Monday, September 25, 2006.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT on September 25, 2006 IA Joint PDAs have been completed in Phelps, Madison and Washington Counties. The IA PDAs are scheduled to continue through September 26-27, 2006. 

Public Assistance (PA), Joint FEMA/State PDAs may be requested at a later date as the State continues to assess damages.  The FEMA Region VII RRCC was activated at Level 1 operations on Saturday, September 23, 2006 and will be operational from 9:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. EDT until further notice.  (FEMA Region VII)

Kentucky Severe Storms and Flooding Update

On September 22, 2006, a line of severe storms moved through Kentucky producing damaging winds, heavy rains, tornadoes, and flooding across the Commonwealth. 

The ARC reports that the five shelters that were opened over the weekend have closed.  Approximately 120 individuals were sheltered.  More than 400 meals were served. 

The Commonwealth now reports 7 confirmed deaths related to this event mostly due to driving in water.

The Kentucky Division of Emergency Management reports that local preliminary damage assessments are ongoing.   The Commonwealth has not requested joint FEMA-State PDAs at this time.  (FEMA Region IV)

U.S. Relaxes Air Travel Restrictions

Air travelers will be allowed to carry drinks bought at the airport onto planes and to have small amounts of liquids and gels in their carry-on bags, the Department of Homeland Security said today.

The new rules, which will go into effect on September 26, 2006, allow travelers to carry liquids, gels or aerosols in containers of 3 ounces or less, as long as they all fit into a clear 1-quart plastic bag that can be screened at the security checkpoint. Drinks and other items purchased in the secure part of the airport, beyond the checkpoint, will also be allowed onto planes.  The new regulations will apply to all domestic and international flights departing from United States airports.

The changes, announced at a news conference today in Washington, reflect a conclusion among officials in Europe and North America that a total ban on liquids is no longer needed to ensure security. Homeland Security officials said that they expected Canada to announce similar new rules today and that some European countries were moving in the same direction.

Air travelers can still put their liquids and gels in their checked luggage to speed their passage through security checks, officials said. Carry-on bags should be simply packed and easy to inspect, to avoid slowing down lines at security checkpoints.  (Media Sources)

Tree Rings Offer Insights To Hurricanes

Within the annual growth rings of old longleaf pines, scientists are discovering a previously unknown record of hurricane activity in the Southeast.  A University of Tennessee-led team has found that hurricane rain can leave a chemical mark in the woody tissue of these shallow-rooted trees that can date when storms occurred.

That may provide "a high-resolution, precisely dated biological archive of climate that could be extended back for centuries, and even millennia," the scientists write in a new study.  Understanding how often hurricanes occurred in the past could help predict how often they will occur in the future.

A noted increase in hurricane activity in the Southeast from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico since the mid-1990s has scientists looking for historical trends and an explanation of whether this is a natural pattern or linked to human-induced global warming.  Precise meteorological records go back only about a half century. From the 1860s to the 1940s, newspaper accounts of big storms and ships' logs are the best source for data. For the 1700s, scientists must rely on plantation accounts and virtually nothing else before then.  So researchers look for signs of hurricane activity or proxies such as the unique absence of certain oxygen molecules in hurricane rain water. They have looked for signs in coastal cave deposits and coral, but neither is as exact as the natural growth rings of a tree.

Tree samples collected in South Georgia were used to plot tree-ring evidence against the 50-year meteorological record.  The site is within 124 miles of Florida's Gulf Coast and Georgia's Atlantic Coast, so hurricanes from both could be detected. The tree rings produced hurricane isotope "fingerprints" in 18 of the 19 years in which the storms were documented.

The latest study looked back 220 years against a far sketchier record. Again, the tree-ring evidence corresponded with available accounts.  In the earliest years, particularly the 1820s and 1840s, the researchers found evidence of "a lot of hurricanes for which there was no historical documentation that a hurricane had ever occurred in that area," a scientist said.

With their methods proven, the researchers hope to secure funding to go back even further in time before the polluting advent of automobiles in the 20th century and the dawn of the industrial revolution in the 19th century to study a larger geographic area, from the Carolinas to Texas.

Longleaf pines can live to be 200 years old but stumps left from long-ago timber harvesting have been found that are much older.  (Media Sources)

Second Earthquake Strikes South Carolina

A minor earthquake awakened residents early September 25, 2006 in Marlboro County, the second quake to hit the area in several days.  The magnitude 3.7 quake hit at 1:44 a.m. and was centered near Society Hill in the northeast corner of South Carolina, about 90 miles southeast of Charlotte, N.C., according to the National Earthquake Information Center.  The intensity increased slightly from earlier reports because more information was available, according to a geophysicist with the center.  There were no reports of injuries or damage, but according to the Director of Emergency Management for Marlboro County, authorities received calls from residents who were woken by their shaking houses.

A magnitude 3.5 quake shook the area September 22, 2006, and the centers of the two quakes were about 10 miles apart.  There were some reports of cracked windows in the September 22, 2006 quake but no serious damage.  The area gets small earthquakes now and then because of faults connected to the Appalachian Mountains, however having two so close together have some concerned.

South Carolina each year has, on average, between 10 and 15 earthquakes that register below magnitude 3. An earthquake between 3 and 4 is recorded about once every 18 months.  The most devastating quake on record for South Carolina was a magnitude 7.3 that rumbled near Charleston on Aug. 31, 1886, killing more than 100 people and destroying about $5 million worth of property worth $103 million when adjusted to 2005 figures for inflation.  (Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
There are no current threats.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
There are no current threats.

Western Pacific:
There are no current threats. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity to report.  (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No activity to report.  (FEMA HQ) 

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3

National Fire Activity
Initial attack activity: Light (55 new fires)

• New large fires: 0
• Large fires contained: 2
• Uncontained large fires: 14
• Area Command Teams: 1
• Type 1 IMTs committed: 4
• Type 2 IMTs committed: 6
• Fire Use Teams: 0

Fire Use Teams:  Australia and New Zealand assisting with 27 fire specialists and managers.

Predictive Services Discussion
High pressure will build over the West this week for warm, dry, and less windy conditions. A high pressure ridge moving over the West has diminished offshore flow in California with light winds most locations. The next weather system will move over the central U.S. mid-week with another shot of cooler conditions and showers. Further west, the ridge will hold throughout the week with little chance of precipitation. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)