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National Situation Update: Monday, September 25, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

South
A slowing cold front will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in extreme southern Georgia and far northern Florida today. Farther south over the Florida Peninsula, only isolated showers and thundershowers are likely.

To the north, in the eastern reaches of the Carolinas, the front will also trigger a scattering of showers and storms, but these should be pretty much out of the picture by late afternoon as the front slowly moves into the Atlantic.

Midwest
A weak cold front may generate some showers around the Great Lakes but most of the Midwest and Plains will enjoy fine early fall weather, although a bit breezy in many areas.

Northeast
While an isolated shower or two may make an appearance in Upstate New York and northern Pennsylvania today, the vast majority of the Northeast will be dry and seasonably cool.

West
The West will be dominated by sunshine as a strong ridge of high pressure aloft takes control. Overall, highs will range from the 50s in parts of the Rocky Mountains to over 100 in southwest Arizona and immediately adjacent parts of California. A few spots in California's Central Valley will top 90.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Crews Mount Large Air Attack Against Forest Fire Near Ojai

Firefighters gained ground Sunday against a wildfire that has burned more than 200 square miles in the Los Padres National Forest, aided by calmer winds and aircraft dropping water and fire-smothering chemicals.

Gentler winds allowed firefighters to bring in more than 40 helicopters and airplanes, including a hulking DC-10 modified to carry fire retardant. Firefighters credited the jetliner with knocking back the edge of the fire that was creeping toward the town of Ojai.

Despite the fire's size - it's grown to 127,569 acres since breaking out Labor Day - no homes have been destroyed. No injuries were reported Sunday.

The blaze was about 40 percent contained, meaning its advance has been halted in those areas.

Winds fluctuated Sunday but were still tamer than in recent days, gusting at 40 mph compared to 50 mph Saturday and shifting away from populated communities in the afternoon. That lowered the risk of flames spreading and let more ground crews go to work.

As winds faded, local residents appeared less anxious as more than 3,000 firefighters blanketed the area.

Earlier Sunday, a large plume of smoke rose from behind a ridge as helicopters lifted off in rapid succession from a staging area in a hayfield east of Ojai, ferrying water and transporting more than 100 hand crews to a remote northeast area to complete part of a three-mile fire line.

Late Saturday, authorities urged the evacuation of some 300 homes and a college east of Ojai. The order was voluntary. Flames were visible on the ridge from Highway 150, which is about three miles from the fire line.

Another blaze started by embers from the huge Day Fire burned about 7,000 acres in the canyons above Thomas Aquinas College in Santa Paula, which sits between Ojai and Fillmore along Highway 150, about 75 miles north of Los Angeles. The campus was evacuated late Saturday.

On Saturday, 10 homes in the Rose Valley area were evacuated as a precaution. And authorities told hundreds of people in Ojai, Fillmore and other towns about 10 miles from the fire's edge to be ready should the flames come too close.

Burning along the border of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, the blaze doubled in size when Santa Ana winds kicked up a week ago. A light, moist wind from the south had calmed the huge fire for several days earlier this week.   (Media Sources)

Heavy Storms Subside Over Midwest, South, Leaving 12 Dead

Stormy weather blamed for 12 deaths in the Midwest and South subsided on Sunday, though residents in some states remained shut out of their homes due to high waters.  Flood warnings remained in effect for parts of Arkansas, Kentucky and Missouri. Many Kentucky roads were still submerged on Sunday, but waters in many areas began to recede.  ``It looks like everything's kind of quieting down, and things are being handled on the local level right now,'' said Buddy Rogers, a spokesman for the Kentucky Division of Emergency Management in Frankfort.

The storms that hit parts of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri and Tennessee Friday and Saturday stranded people in cars, forced others from their homes and left thousands without power.  The death toll in Kentucky reached eight, including a father and his 1-year-old daughter in a truck that skidded in floodwaters. Two deaths were reported in Arkansas, and in Illinois, authorities say lightning was the apparent cause of a house fire that killed elderly two women.

The National Weather Service reported that areas of Kentucky received at least 5 inches of rain, with isolated regions getting close to 10 inches. Over 24 hours, parts of northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri received more than 10 inches of rain, the weather service reported.  Arkansas rivers swelled up to 8 feet above flood levels, officials said. Campers at River Bend Park in Hardy, Ark., were asked to evacuate when the Spring River began rising.

In central and eastern Missouri, nearly 400 structures were damaged or destroyed and at least 10 people were injured by about 10 tornadoes, officials said.  (Media Sources)

Missouri Severe Storms and Tornadoes Updates

A series of storms swept across Missouri on Friday, Sept 22, 2006 causing damages in Phelps, Madison, Perry, St. Francois, Iron and Crawford Counties. Southeast Missouri experienced flash flooding in New Madrid, Ripley and Butler Counties. A cold front crossed Missouri on Saturday morning Sept 23, 2006 including some severe storms.  No fatalities and ten injuries were reported.

Butler County:  The City of Neelyville had flash flooding and conducted sandbagging operations.

Madison County:  Rural areas in the county report 1 home with moderate damage and 4 homes with minor damage.

New Madrid County:  The City of Marston reported flash flooding.

Oregon County:  The county reported power outages in rural areas and downed trees.

Shannon County:  The county reported power outages and downed trees.

On September 23, 2006, Missouri State Emergency Management staff contacted the following counties for damage information:  Carter, Wayne, Bollinger, Pemiscot, Dent, Stoddard, Ste. Genevieve, Pulaski, Maries, Gasconade, Franklin and Jefferson.  On September 25, 2006, the counties will be contacted again to talk to the Presiding Commissioners.

IA PDA teams will start assessments at 9:00 am EDT on Monday, September 25, 2006. The FEMA RVII RRCC was activated at Level 1 operations on Saturday, September 23, 2006. On September 24, the FEMA Region VII RRCC was staffed from 9:00 am to 3:00 pm EDT.

The Governor of Missouri signed a State of Emergency Executive Order on September 23, 2006.
The Missouri State Highway Patrol provided security in the City of St. James at the request of local law enforcement officials.  A curfew remains in effect for St. James. 

The Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services assisted Madison County Public Health with disaster response. 

The Division of Disability and Senior Services is contacting storm impacted clients to assess needs.  The Long-Term Care Staff is checking on facilities. 

Environmental staff is assessing the needs of restaurants, grocery stores, etc.  An Environmental Team is on stand-by to augment local staff .  (FEMA Region VII)

Kentucky Severe Storms and Flooding

Beginning on September 22, 2006, a line of severe storms moved through Kentucky producing damaging winds, heavy rains, tornadoes, and flooding across the Commonwealth.  Several shelters were opened housing an unknown number. 

The Red Cross has provided hotel accommodations for the evacuees.  Some mandatory evacuations were conducted, mostly for low lying areas.  There were numerous road closures, reports of varying degrees of damage to businesses and residences, and power and telephone outages. 

Varying numbers of storm related deaths (7 to 9) have been reported.  The following confirmed deaths have been reported:  Hardin County, 2 and Franklin County, 1.  These were due to driving in water.
The Commonwealth has not suffered any river flooding at this time.  Most of the flooding has been from tributaries and creeks.  The water rose rapidly and receded.  If more rain is received and the rivers crest, there is a potential for more flooding. 

The Kentucky Emergency Operations Center was partially activated on Friday, September 22, 2006, and fully activated on Saturday, September 23, 2006.  The State EOC closed Sunday, September 24, 2006, at 1:00 pm EDT. 

The Governor has not issued an executive order declaring a state of emergency.  He is currently out of the country; however, he is being advised of the situation and all actions.  The Kentucky National Guard was placed on alert but not activated.  They have returned to normal duties.

The following counties and cities have declared local states of emergency - the Counties of Ballard, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman, Calloway, Marshall, McCracken, Christian, Livingston, Hardin, Grayson, Breckinridge, Bath, Carter and Franklin; and the Cities of Caneyville, Leitchfield, Clarkson, and Fulton.  Local damage assessments will begin on Monday, September 25, 2006, in the impacted areas.  

The State has not requested a response liaison or any assistance at this time. 

The Regional Duty Officer has been in contact with the Kentucky Division of Emergency Management and will continue to monitor the situation.  (FEMA Region IV)

Texas Heavy Rain Event

Rain has subsided allowing flooded streets to drain.  Below is an update of the two areas of concern in the Rio Grande Valley:

Edcouch/Elsa: experienced localized street flooding, and had no reported evacuations and opened one shelter with no occupants at time of this report.

City of Pharr:  The American Red Cross assisted the City of Pharr with one shelter at 7101 S. Cage.  Shelter had one family at the time of this report and plans were to close the shelter at 6:00 pm EDT.

Of the two areas affected the City of Pharr appears to be the hardest hit with possibly as many as 20-30 homes having some  water damage.  Local damage assessment will be conducted through Monday morning, September 25, 2006.

The American Red Cross will be on standby and will be distributing clean-up kits on Monday if needed.
There were no reported injuries.  Texas Department of Transportation (TXDOT) is currently assisting with road closures.  Responding agencies include: TXDOT, American Red Cross, Pharr Police Department (PD) and Fire Department (FD), Weslaco PD and FD, Edcouch PD and FD, Elsa PD and FD.  (FEMA Denton-MOC, Texas State EOC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
There are no current threats.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
There are no current threats.

Western Pacific:
There are no current threats. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity to report. ( FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

A minor earthquake (3.9 magnitude) struck at 12:52 pm EDT less than a mile west of the Mt Saint Helen's volcano crater, WA. There were no reports of damage or injuries  (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Individual Assistance PDAs are scheduled to begin in Missouri as a result of the severe storms and tornadoes from September 22 - 24, 2006. (FEMA HQ)  

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3

National Fire Activity
Initial attack activity: Light (48 new fires)

• New large fires: 0
• Large fires contained: 1
• Uncontained large fires: 18
• Area Command Teams: 1
• Type 1 IMTs committed: 4
• Type 2 IMTs committed: 7
• Fire Use Teams: 0

Fire Use Teams:  Australia and New Zealand assisting with 63 fire specialists and managers.

Predictive Services Discussion
Strong winds to continue through this evening in southern California, with high pressure building into the West for next week. High pressure will slowly make its way onto the West Coast today, reducing winds slowly through the day in California. However, dry air will remain in place along with another day of breezy conditions. Early next week, high pressure will overspread the entire West, creating dry and warming conditions with little chance of precipitation.    (National Interagency Fire Center, National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)