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National Situation Update: Saturday, September 23, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Midwest:  A strong cold front will stretch from Michigan to Texas with plenty of warm, very humid air streaming northward from the Gulf. Another vigorous upper-level disturbance will move into the Midwest along an energized jet stream. These ingredients will allow an unusual severe outbreak to continue today from the southern Great Lakes to Missouri and Kentucky.

Tornadoes, hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible as thunderstorms turn severe.  Torrential rain and thunderstorms moving repeatedly over the same areas could cause flash flooding.  On the cold side of the Midwest storm system, rain and strong gusty winds will linger in the Plains and rain will extend through the northern Mississippi Valley into the northern Great Lakes.

South:  Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop across eastern sections of Oklahoma and Texas, all of Arkansas, much of Louisiana and Mississippi, northwest Alabama and the western half of Tennessee. Tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main threats. The thunderstorms will dump locally torrential rain. Severe thunderstorms and downpours will slowly shift eastward, hitting Tennessee, northwest Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and southeast Texas.

Northeast:  In the Northeast, showery rain will engulf much of the region with the possible exception of Virginia and the Chesapeake Bay area.  By tomorrow, a strong cold front will be moving in from the Midwest.  Thunderstorms could turn severe tomorrow over southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic with damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours.

West:  The last of the mountain snow will be diminishing across Wyoming and Colorado today as rain lingers in eastern Wyoming, southeastern Montana and northeast Colorado.  The Santa Ana winds will turn strong and dangerous this morning and tomorrow morning in the mountains, canyons and passes around Los Angeles. This condition will make current fires more difficult to control and keep the threat for new fires extremely high.  (NWS, Media Sources)

California Wildfire

The Day fire is burning in steep and inaccessible terrain in the Los Padres National Forest just west of Hwy 5 (Gorman) and north of highway 128 (Piru-Santa Paula).   The fire has consumed 112,257 acres and is reported to be 35% contained.  2, 622 fire fighters are on the line.   1,855 residences are threatened as are 614 commercial properties. 
Based on predicted 60 mph wind conditions the fire perimeter could move to the south and west threatening the communities of Piru, Santa Paula, and Ojai. Voluntary precautionary evacuations are in effect.  While the marine layer has inhibited fire behavior, a predicted substantial increase in Santa Ana wind conditions has caused the Type I Incident Management team to predict extreme fire behavior through Sunday.

Major perimeter growth is likely to occur along the southern and western flanks of the fire.  Red Flag Fire Warnings are in effect for the area.

No State response is envisioned at this time since the fire is burning on Federal Property, however the State is responding to requests for Mutual Aid.

There is no request for federal assistance and FEMA Region IX will continue to monitor the system.  (FEMA Region IX)

FEMA Support to UN General Assembly Debate

FEMA Region II is monitoring the situation from the RRCC at Level 3. There have been no incidents and neither the City nor the State have made any requests for federal assistance.  (FEMA Region II)

MO Severe Storms and Tornadoes

Crawford County:  Tornado touched down at the north edge of St. James, with two persons receiving minor injuries. Reports of substantial damage include approximately 150 residential and business structures suffering varying degrees of damage and widespread electrical and telephone outages. Several local businesses reported to have sustained damages. The St. James Middle School sustained partial roof damage. The Jefferson City Chapter of the American Red Cross (ARC) deployed a damage team and an Emergency Response Vehicle to the area. Missouri State Highway Patrol (MSHP) officers are assisting St. James city officials with traffic and other duties.

Iron County:  Local officials report that Pilot Knob (Middlebrook area) received straight line winds/possible tornado north of town. Local officials report 10-12 homes with moderate damage, 3-5 homes with minor damage and 1 apartment complex with moderate damage (number of units are unknown). 

Madison County:  The Mine La Motte area received storm damage including downed trees blocking access to the area. Fifty (50) homes and mobile homes received substantial damage, with the majority of damages received by mobile homes. One man (mobile home resident) received critical injuries. Local officials are doing damage assessments and the ARC is assisting in sheltering operations at the Methodist Church in Fredericktown.
Americorps deployed six (6) people to support the Health Division in Madison County. Americorps is also deploying five (5) 7,500 MW generators and tarps to begin roof covering (tarping) operations for about thirty (30) homes.

Perry County:  A tornado reportedly touched down near Perry County Road 350 at 5:35 pm EDT. Route P near Crosstown is blocked by downed power lines. Fifteen (15) houses reported destroyed in a ½ mile stretch, with major damage to the center of the town of Crosstown. Numerous power lines and trees remain down. MSHP officers deployed to the area to assess damages. Incident Command has been activated in the Crosstown area at a local church. Two persons with minor injuries have been reported. Ameren UE has been contacted and has crews en route to the Crosstown area to begin power restoration.

St. Francois County:  Storm damage, including wind and hail, was observed east of Farmington and near Bonne Terre and Desloge. Two roofs were blown off houses and trees and power lines were down in the area. Cars were reportedly blown into ditches, however no injuries are reported.

State/Local Response:  SEMA EOC activated at Level I operations. SEMA Area Coordinators and the MSHP are supporting local damage assessment efforts.  Madison County is issuing an emergency declaration. Missouri's Division of Health and Senior Services' (DHSS) Division of Disability and Senior Services is contacting clients in the storm affected areas to assess needs. Long-term care staff is checking on facilities. Environmental staff is checking damage and needs of restaurants, grocery stores, etc. An environmental team is on stand-by to assist local staff if/when needed.

Federal Response:  Potential for Federal involvement is unknown at this time. FEMA Regional staff is working closely with SEMA staff to assist with requests for Federal assistance if required.  (FEMA Region VII)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
There are no current threats.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
There are no current threats.

Western Pacific:
There are no current threats. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity to report. ( FEMA HQ)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

There were no significant earthquakes reported.  (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No activity to report. (FEMA HQ) 

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3

National Fire Activity

• Initial attack activity: Light ( 21 new fires)
• New large fires: 0 (*)
• Large fires contained: 3
• Uncontained large fires: 21
• Area Command Teams: 1
• Type 1 IMTs committed: 7
• Type 2 IMTs committed: 8

Fire Use Teams:  Australia and New Zealand assisting with 63 fire specialists and managers.

Predictive Services Discussion
Strong offshore winds are expected in California today into the weekend. The low pressure trough over the Great Basin will move east today as a high pressure ridge builds from north to south along the West Coast. This ridge will lead to strong north to northeast winds Friday through Saturday along with lowering humidity in northern California. In southern California, a moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event will begin Friday night and continue through Sunday. The high pressure ridge will move over much of the West next week with warm and dry conditions.  (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1659-DR-NM was amended effective September 22, 2006, to include McKinley County for public assistance.

FEMA-1661-DR-VA was declared on September 22, 2006 for Severe Storms and Flooding, Including Severe Storms and Flooding Associated With Tropical Storm Ernesto from August 29 - September 7, 2006. 

Public Assistance for The counties of Accomack, Caroline, Charles City, Dinwiddie, Essex, Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, King William, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Northampton, Northumberland, Richmond, Surry, Sussex, Westmoreland, and York, and the independent cities of Poquoson and Richmond was approved as well as assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program for all jurisdictions in the Commonwealth of Virginia.  (FEMA HQ)