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National Situation Update: Thursday, September 21, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

National Weather Forecast

West
The Rocky Mountains and Wasatch Mountains of Utah are expected to receive 6-12 inches of snow above 9,000 feet.

A new storm system is expected to move into Oregon and Washington State Wednesday night then into the northern Rockies on Thursday, bringing snow to 7,500 feet levels.

The Southwest is expected to remain sunny and warm.

Wildfires remain a major concern in California and the Great Basin states.

Midwest
Severe thunderstorms and rain are expected in the Plain states.

There has been significant lake-effect rainfall southeast of the Great lakes.

In some Northern states the temperatures have dropped to the high 20s and lower 30s.

South
Autumn-like weather will extend across the South and parts of the Southeast.

Northeast
The region will be sunny and partly cloudy with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s on Thursday.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Impact of El Nino on U.S. Winter Weather

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is expected to release its Seasonal Outlook on September 21, 2006. The outlook will describe the forecasted impacts of the developing El Nino event on the 2006-2007 U.S. winter season.

The outlook for the winter season calls for above normal temperatures across the West, the Southwest, the Plains States, the Midwest, and the Northeast. Near-average temperatures are favored in parts of the Southeast. Above-average precipitation is expected for Florida and the South Atlantic Coast and across the Southwest from southern California through Texas and below average in the Tennessee Valley and the northern Rockies.

The Climate Prediction Center will also issue the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook on September 21, that will cover the period through December, 2006. Based on known impacts of El Nino, the Seasonal Drought Outlook will indicate improvements in parts of Arizona, northeastern Texas into Missouri, and also across the Southeast. Drought is predicted to develop in northeast Washington, Oregon, and parts of western Idaho.  (NOAA, Climate Prediction Center)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Hurricane Helene - At 5:00 am EDT, Thursday, September 21, Hurricane Helene was located about 550 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph. Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Helene is moving toward the north near 13 mph and a gradual turn toward the north-northeast or northeast is expected during the next 24 hours. Helene is not a threat to the U. S. or U.S. territories.

Tropical Storm Gordon - At 5:00 pm EDT, Wednesday, September 20, the NWS issued its final advisory for TS Gordon. The storm, with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph, was moving eastward near 35 mph approximately 380 miles west of Lisbon, Portugal. The storm is expected to become absorbed by a cold front during the next 24 hours. TS Gordon is not a threat to the U.S. or U.S. territories. 

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a number of tropical waves but none are showing much potential for development. Tropical storm formation in the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea is not expected through Thursday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm formation is not expected through Thursday.

Western Pacific:
Super Typhoon 16W (Yagi) with wind speeds of 150 mph is located approximately 500 miles east-southeast of Iwo Jima. Yagi is not a threat to the U.S. or U.S. territories.

Tropical Depression 02C is located approximately 325 miles southeast of Johnston Island. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued a final warning for TD-02C which is not a threat to the U.S. or U.S. territories.   (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Indiana, Lake County Individual Assistance PDA began September 18, 2006. (FEMA HQ) 

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level is currently at Level 4 (reduced from Level 5).
Wildfire activity was Light (104 new fires)
New large fires:  4
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires: 29
Area Command Teams: 2
Type 1 Incident Mgmt.Team (IMT)s:  8
Type 2 IMTs:   7
Fire Use Teams:  2

New Zealand and Australia are assisting with 67 fire specialists and managers.

Ten year average year to date: 5,010,374 acres burned.
2006 Season: 8,968,517 acres burned  (2005 Season: 8,700,000 acres burned).
Structure Loss 2005 Season: Primary 258, Commercial 16, Outbuildings 517
Structure Loss 2006 Season year to date: Primary 671, Commercial 57, Outbuildings 1,376
Critical resource needs:   None at this time.  (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment Number 2 to FEMA-1659-DR-NM provides notice that the incident period for the disaster is closed effective September 18, 2006.   (FEMA HQ)