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National Situation Update: Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

Cooler Weather Forecast for Northern U.S.

Northeast
Cooler air is forecast in the Northeast Wednesday with lows in the 40s-50s and highs in the 60s-70s.

Lake-effect rain showers are expected southeast of the Great Lakes due to the cold air blowing across the much warmer lake waters.

South
A cold front is expected to push well into the south to Florida by Wednesday afternoon, with the threat of thunderstorms in southern Florida.

The southern plains should remain mostly sunny and mild. 

Midwest
Chilly temperatures dominate the weather across the Midwest. Frost advisories posted from central North Dakota into northern Iowa.  

West
There is a threat of thunderstorms in the Rocky Mountains. Snow levels are expected to drop after a storm system moves through.

The southwest is expected to be dry and sunny with little storm system impact.

Fire danger remains high in Southern California.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Phoenix, Arizona has Wettest Monsoon Season Since 1999

The "monsoon season" in Phoenix, Arizona extends from July 2 through September 14. The National Weather Service reported that Phoenix received 3.33 inches of rain during that period this year, making it the wettest season since 1999. The monsoon season normally lasts 55 days and brings an average of 2.54 inches of rain. (The Arizona Republic)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Hurricane Helene
At 5:00 am EDT, Wednesday, September 20, the center of Helene was located about 745 miles southeast of Bermuda or about 1,500 miles east-northeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph, with higher gusts. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center. Helene is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph and a gradual turn toward the north is expected during the next 24 hours. Helene is not a threat to the United States or its territories.

Hurricane Gordon
At 5:00 am EDT, Wednesday, September 20, Gordon was moving east near 35 mph over the open Atlantic Ocean approximately 165 miles east-southeast of the Azores or about 750 miles west of Portugal. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph, with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Gordon is not a threat to the United States or its territories.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a number of tropical waves but none are showing much potential for development.

Central and Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm formation is not expected through Thursday.

Western Pacific
Typhoon 16W (Yagi) is located approximately 545 miles east-northeast of Saipan and has tracked westward at 17 mph over the past 6 hours.

Tropical Depression 02C located at 10.6 north and 162.1 west, or about 750 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii, is moving westward at about 35 mph. TD 02C currently does not pose any threat to the U.S. or its territories. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Indiana, Lake County Individual Assistance PDA was scheduled to begin on September 18, 2006.(FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level is currently at Level 4 (reduced from Level 5).
Wildfire activity was Light (129 new fires)

 New large fires:        1
 Large fires contained:        4
 Uncontained large fires:     27
 Area Command Teams:       2
 Type 1 Incident Management Team (IMT)s:     6
 Type 2 IMTs:         8
 Fire Use Teams:        2

New Zealand and Australia are providing 67 fire specialists and managers to assist with suppression operations.

Ten year average year to date: 4,991,546 acres burned.
2004 Season: 7,653,180
2005 Season: 8,700,000 
2006 Season: 8,849,418 acres burned to date
Structure Loss 2005 Season: Primary 258, Commercial 16, Outbuildings 517
Structure Loss 2006 Season year to date: Primary 671, Commercial 57, Outbuildings 1,376
Critical resource needs:   None at this time.
There are 6 large fires still posing a significant threat to structures and other improvements, including the Day, Sawmill, Bar and Uncles Complex fires in California and two fires at the Rattlesnake complex in Garden Valley, Idaho.  Remaining large fires have either mitigated the structure threat or are in remote areas not currently a threat to improvements. (National Interagency Fire Center, FEMA Region VIII and Region IX)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)