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National Situation Update: Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

National Weather Forecast

Northeast
A cold front pushes through the area bringing rain and some thunderstorms to the Northeast.
Lake-effect rain showers are expected Wednesday southeast of the Great Lakes behind the front as colder air blows across the warm lake waters.

South
A cold front will be pushing through the South. Rain and thunderstorms could stretch from Virginia to central Florida. High temperatures will cool to levels 5 to 10 degrees below average behind the front in cities like Birmingham, Atlanta and Charlotte.

Midwest
Chilly and unsettled conditions will prevail across the Great Lakes region. Winds will die down across the Plains.  Temperatures could run 10 to 20 degrees below average with afternoon highs ranging from the 40s to the middle 60s.

West
A storm system has moved into the Pacific Northwest resulting in showers and high mountain snow.  The precipitation should spread to central Montana and eastern Idaho. Highs should be in the 50s and 60s Northwest and from the 70s (higher elevations) to the lower 100s (deserts).

HAZARDS

An ongoing but somewhat reduced risk of wildfires will continue into the Assessment Period for the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, where many large wildfires are currently burning, but conditions may briefly worsen over southern California.
In the northern Rockies, Montana, and northern Great Basin, the risk will continue to decrease as more cool air accompanied by precipitation moves into the area.
Strong winds are likely to continue into Sep 19 from the Dakotas to the western Great Lakes in the cold air behind this storm.
Drought persists over parts of the Southwest, the Plains and Southeast, although some improvement is likely in the northern Plains and northern Minnesota from significant precipitation expected prior to and near the beginning of the Assessment Period, and possibly later in the southern areas.
The first significant coastal gales of the season are possible over the Aleutians and along the south coast of Alaska Sep 18 and 19.

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Hurricane Helene
At 5:00 am EDT, Tuesday, September 19, the center of Helene was located 945 miles east-southeast of Bermuda or about 975 miles east-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.  Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph and a west to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours. Helene is not a threat to the United States or its territories at this time.

Hurricane Gordon
At 5:00 am EDT, Tuesday, September 19, Gordon was moving east near 28 mph over the open Atlantic ocean 630 miles west of the Azores. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph, with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Gordon is not a threat to the United States or its territories at this time.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a number of tropical waves but none are showing much potential for development.

Central and Eastern Pacific
Tropical Depression 02C located about 640 miles south of Hilo Hawaii. Tropical Depression 02C is not a threat to the United States or its territories at this time.

Western Pacific
Typhoon 16W (Yagi) is located 1,80 miles east-northeast of Guam, tracking east-southeastward at 4 mph and poses no threat to United States territories.(USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Indiana, Lake County Individual Assistance PDA was scheduled to begin on September 18, 2006.(FEMA HQ) 

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level - 4
National Fire Activity
Initial attack activity: Light (72 new fires)

New large fires:      1
Large fires contained:      1
Uncontained large fires:     33
Area Command Teams:     2
Type 1 Incident Management Team (IMT)s:   7
Type 2 IMTs:       10
Fire Use Teams:      2

Critical resource needs:
None

Major Evacuations/Structures Threatened:
There are 7 fires still posing a significant threat to structures and other improvements.  Remaining large fires have either been mitigated for the structure threat or are in remote areas and are not currently a threat to improvements. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)