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National Situation Update: Monday, September 18, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

National Weather Forecast

West:
The frontal system moving into the Pacific Northwest will produce precipitation over Washington, Oregon and Western Idaho. Snow levels are around 8,500 feet and should rise as the storm moves in.
Conditions across the Southwest should remain sunny and dry through tomorrow.

Midwest:
The low pressure system over the Great lakes will produce rain and even a few snow showers across the Dakotas, Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The cold front extending southward from the low will produce showers and thunderstorms over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

South:
The southern end of the cold front combined with tropical moisture from Mexico will produce widespread precipitation from the Ohio Valley to Texas. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast for central Texas, eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, southern and eastern Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana. The front will produce one-half to 3 inches of additional rainfall across the remainder the Southeast later today and tomorrow.

Northeast:
High pressure will dominate weather across the region today producing mostly sunny skies with warm temperatures. The cold front currently moving through the Midwest will arrive tomorrow. Afternoon highs should climb well into the 70s and 80s, running up to 10 degrees above average for mid-September.(NWS, Media Sources)

U.S. Has Second Warmest Summer On Record

Summer 2006 was the second warmest June-to-August period in the continental U.S. since records began in 1895, according to scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Additionally, the 2006 January-to-August period was the warmest on record for the continental U.S.

The average June-August 2006 temperature for the contiguous United States (based on preliminary data) was 2.4 degrees F above the 20th century average of 72.1 degrees F This was the second warmest summer on record, slightly cooler than the record of 74.7 degrees F set in 1936 during the Dust Bowl era. This summer's average was 74.5 degrees F. Eight of the past ten summers have been warmer than the U.S. average for the same period.

The persistence of the anomalous warmth in 2006 made this January-August period the warmest on record for the continental U.S., eclipsing the previous record of 1934. A blistering heat wave in July impacted most of the nation, breaking more than 2,300 daily records and more than 50 all-time high temperature records. Additional high temperature records were broken during the first part of August. (Excerpt from NOAA Magazine http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2700.htm )

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Hurricane Helene: At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Helene was located 920 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands or about 1,080 miles east-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph, with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center. Helene is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. Helene is not a threat to the United States or its territories at this time.

Hurricane Gordon: At 5:00 am EDT, Gordon was over the open Atlantic ocean 1,245 miles west of the Azores. Gordon is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph and a turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph, with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Gordon is not a threat to the United States or its territories.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a number of tropical waves but none are showing much potential for development.

Central and Eastern Pacific
Remains of Tropical Depression Lane: The remains of Tropical Depression Lane are over mainland Mexico and dissipating. The National Hurricane Center is no longer issuing advisories and there is no threat to the United States.

Tropical Storm Miriam: The center of Tropical Storm Miriam is off the tip of the Baja Peninsula about 900 miles south-southeast of San Diego CA. Miriam is moving north-northwest at 4 mph. The National Hurricane Center is no longer issuing advisories on Miriam, which is not a threat to the United States.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a number of tropical waves but none are showing much potential for development.

Western Pacific
Typhoon 14W (Shanshan): 14W completed extratropical transition and poses no threat to United States territories.  No further advisories on 14W will be issued.

Typhoon 16W (Yagi): 16W is located 930 miles east-northeast of Guam, tracking east-southeastward at 4 mph and poses no threat to United States territories.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).
 

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level - 4
National Fire Activity
Initial attack activity: Light (75 new fires)

New large fires:      2
Large fires contained:      1
Uncontained large fires:     40
Area Command Teams:     1
Type 1 Incident Management Team (IMT)s:   8
Type 2 IMTs:       10
Fire Use Teams:      3

All Modular Airborne Firefighting Systems (MAFFS) C-130 aircraft have been released.
New Zealand and Australia are providing 67 fire specialists and managers to assist with suppression operations.
2005 Season: 8,700,000 
2006 Season: 8,796,733 acres burned to date
Structure Loss 2005 Season: Primary 258, Commercial 16, Outbuildings 517
Structure Loss 2006 Season year to date: Primary 669, Commercial 54, Outbuildings 1,369

Critical resource needs:
Type 1 Hotshot Crews

Major Evacuations/Structures Threatened:
There are 15 fires still posing a significant threat to structures and other improvements.  Remaining large fires have either been mitigated for the structure threat or are in remote areas not currently a threat to improvements. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Joint Field Office (JFO) for FEMA-1657-DR-AK has been approved for closure on September 29, 2006. (FEMA HQ)