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National Situation Update: Sunday, September 17, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

National Weather Forecast

West:
Rain and wet snow are in the forecast for eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. A new low pressure system will move into the Pacific Northwest producing showers over western Washington and western Oregon later today. High temperatures will be 5-15 degrees below average from the Pacific Northwest to the Desert Southwest.

Midwest:
A cold front extending from a low on the North Dakota-Wisconsin Border to Texas will produce precipitation from Wisconsin to the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are forecast from Illinois to Oklahoma. Behind the front temperatures will drop to the 40s and upper 30s over the Dakotas.
Behind the cold front the strong southerly winds will turn northwesterly producing a cold and wet day across the northern Great Plains. Some snow may mix in with the rain in the Black Hills of South Dakota.

South:
The cold front extending from the low on the North Dakota-Wisconsin Border will mover over the southern Plains today, producing thunderstorms in Oklahoma, Texas, and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Northeast:
High pressure will replace the storm system that has lingered off the Delaware Maryland Virginia (DelMarVa) coast so the region should be free of any precipitation. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above average in the 70s and 80s. (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Hurricane Helene
At 5:00 am EDT, Sunday, September 17, the center of Helene was located 980 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands or about 1,215 miles east San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph, with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center.
Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph and a motion between the west-northwest and northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. Based on the current warning Helene is not a threat to the United States or its territories.

Hurricane Gordon
At 5:00 am EDT, Sunday, September 17, Gordon was barely a hurricane moving  north at 6 mph over the open Atlantic ocean 670 miles east of Bermuda or 1,200 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph, with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next 24 hours and Gordon is expected to become a Tropical Storm on Sunday.
Based on the current warning Gordon is not a threat to the United States or its territories.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a number of tropical waves but none are showing much potential for development.

Central and Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Lane
At 5:00 am EDT, Sunday, September 17, the center of Tropical Storm Lane was over mainland Mexico about 725 miles southeast of San Diego CA. Lane is a weakening Category One hurricane moving to the north at 8 mph and is forecast to weaken during the next 24 hours as it moves further inland.
Based on the current warning Lane is not a threat to the United States or its territories.

Tropical Storm Miriam
At 5:00 am EDT, Sunday, September 17, the center of Tropical Storm Miriam was off the tip of the Baja Peninsula about 1,025 miles south-southeast of San Diego CA. Miriam is drifting slowly north at 7 mph. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24-36 hours. Based on the current warning Lane is not a threat to the United States or its territories. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a number of tropical waves but none are showing much potential for development.

Western Pacific
Typhoon 14W (Shanshan) is heading into the East China Sea and poses no threat to United States territories.

Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible in an area of convection approximately 860 miles northeast of Guam. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level - 4
National Fire Activity
Initial attack activity: Light (76 new fires)

New large fires:      1
Large fires contained:      2
Uncontained large fires:     38
Area Command Teams:     1
Type 1 Incident Management Team (IMT)s:   8
Type 2 IMTs:       11
Fire Use Teams:      3

Critical resource needs:
Type 1 Hotshot Crews

Major Evacuations/Structures Threatened:
There are 15 fires still posing a significant threat to structures and other improvements.  Remaining large fires have either been mitigated for the structure threat or are in remote areas not currently a threat to improvements. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Joint Field Office (JFO) for FEMA-1657-DR-AK has been approved for closure on September 29, 2006. (FEMA HQ)