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National Situation Update: Saturday, September 16, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

National Weather Forecast

West:
The snow level will drop to 5000 feet across the northern Rockies today with additional rain for the northern high Plains. California and the Desert Southwest will have fair weather under the influence of high pressure. High temperatures will be 5 to 30 degrees below average Saturday and Sunday resulting in high temperatures ranging from the 30s in Montana to 100 in the Desert Southwest.

Midwest:
A large and complex low pressure in the upper Midwest combined with  warm moist air from the south will produce violent weather and a dramatic change of temperature over much of the region. Severe thunderstorms, with large hail and damaging winds, are forecast from the Dakotas south to Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Isolated tornadoes are possible. High temperatures in parts of the Dakotas will reach only into the 40s.

South:
Most of the South will be dry and warm today with temperatures reaching the low 90s from the Gulf region to the southern Plains. Expect a big change tomorrow with the arrival of the cold front currently over the Midwest producing thunderstorms over Oklahoma, Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Northeast:
Under building high pressure expect scattered showers from southern sections of New England to the Chesapeake Bay. (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:

Tropical Storm Helene
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Helene was located 2,400 miles east-southeast of Miami and 1,735 miles southeast of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center. Movement is toward the west-northwest near 14 mph, and is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.  Helene is expected to become a hurricane later today Tropical Storm Helene does not threaten land at this time.

Hurricane Gordon
At 5:00 am EDT Hurricane Gordon continues drifting northeast over the central North Atlantic near 4 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph, with higher gusts.
Currently 655 miles east of Bermuda, Gordon is not considered a threat to land.

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday.

Central and Eastern Pacific

Hurricane Lane
At 5:00 am EDT The center of Hurricane Lane is about 1,300 miles southeast of San Diego, CA. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Lane is expected to become a major hurricane today.  Hurricane Lane is not a threat to the U.S. at this time.

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday.

Western Pacific

Typhoon 14W is heading into the East China Sea and poses no threat to United States territories.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area 790 miles east-northeast of Guam but the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone is poor. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).
 

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level - 5
National Fire Activity
Initial attack activity: Light (74 new fires)

New large fires:      4
Large fires contained:      1
Uncontained large fires:     41
Area Command Teams:     1
Type 1 Incident Management Team (IMT)s:   7
Type 2 IMTs:       7
Fire Use Teams:      3

Three Modular Airborne Firefighting Systems (MAFFS) C-130 aircraft deployed to Boise, ID.
New Zealand and Australia are providing 115 fire specialists and managers to assist with suppression operations.
2005 Season: 8,700,000 
2006 Season: 8,767,901 acres burned to date
Structure Loss 2005 Season: Primary 258, Commercial 16, Outbuildings 517
Structure Loss 2006 Season year to date: Primary 669, Commercial 54, Outbuildings 1,369
Critical resource needs:

• Type 1 Hotshot Crews

Major Evacuations/Structures Threatened:
There are 15 fires still posing a significant threat to structures and other improvements.  Remaining large fires have either been mitigated for the structure threat or are in remote areas not currently a threat to improvements. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)