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National Situation Update: Friday, September 15, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

Northeast
A developing coastal storm will be slow to exit the Northeast; showery rains will linger from the Appalachians to the New England and Mid-Atlantic Coasts, while heavier rain could douse southern New England and southeast New York through Saturday.

South
An upper-level low is lodged over the Northeast, causing sprinkles in eastern North Carolina. Scattered thunderstorms will continue over the Florida Peninsula through Saturday. A few thunderstorms may develop over parts of Texas and Oklahoma by Saturday.

Midwest
Thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will precede and accompany a strong cold front just entering the western Dakotas. A cold windy rain will advance from the Dakotas to the Upper Midwest, once the front moves through.

West
A strong cold front from out of the Northwest will move through most of the Southwest by Sunday. A strong, deep upper-level storm will shift eastward through the West over the next few days, bringing showers from Washington and Oregon to Montana and Wyoming, with snow levels down to 4,500 feet in the northern Cascades. A few thunderstorms will pop over the Four Corners' states. Gusty winds will continue over parts of the Southwest. (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:

Friday, 5:00 AM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located about 1060 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and 1,700 miles east-southeast of Puerto Rico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

Moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph, with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected. Tropical Storm Helene is not expected to threaten land.

Now a category two hurricane over the open Atlantic, Hurricane Gordon continues moving northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph, with higher gusts. Some weakening is forcast over the next 24 hours. 680 miles east-of Bermuda, Gordon is not considered a threat to land.

A westward-moving tropical wave is producing cloudiness and showers over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, and continuing northward over the Atlantic Ocean for a few hundred miles. Surface pressures are high across the region and there are currently no signs of organization.

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday.

Central and Eastern Pacific
The center of Tropical Storm Lane is about 110 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico, and about 365 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. On the current track Lane is forcast to remain offshore, however only a slight deviation to the right could bring the center of Lane very near the coast of mainland Mexico.

Clusters of thunderstorms as part of an intertropical convergence zone continued far southeast of the Hawaiian islands. A weak tropical disturbance was about 820 miles southeast of Hilo Hawaii. It is in an environment unfavorable for development.

No topical cyclones are expected through Saturday evening.

Western Pacific
No tropical systems pose threats to United States territories or interests at this time. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG # 2675 was approved September 14, 2006 at 11:30 PM EDT for the Moore Road Fire in Travis County, Texas. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity in the last 24 hours. (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity to report.(FEMA HQ) 

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level - 5

National Fire Activity

• Initial attack activity: Light (62 new fires)
• New large fires:     1
• Large fires contained:    2
• Uncontained large fires:  53
• Area Command Teams:    1
• Type 1 IMTs:     7
• Type 2 IMTs:   14
• Fire Use Teams:     4

Three MAFFS C-130 aircraft deployed to Boise, ID.

New Zealand and Australia are providing 115 fire specialists and managers to assist with suppression operations, including 24 new personnel arriving this week.

2005 Season: 8,700,000 
2006 Season: 8,716,342 acres burned to date

Structure Loss 2005 Season: Primary 258, Commercial 16, Outbuildings 517
Structure Loss 2006 Season year to date: Primary 646, Commercial 54, Outbuildings 1,367

Critical resource needs:
Type 1 Hotshot Crews

Major Evacuations/Structures Threatened:
The Jungle Fire, 20 miles southeast of Livingston, Montana nearly doubled in size since Wednesday, prompting evacuation orders for about 325 homes. The fire was estimated at 18,845 acres, or about 29 square miles.  Tuesday night it was reported at 9,360 acres, or about 15 square miles.

The Moore Road Fire has burned 50 acres, threatening 50 homes in the Throughbred Subivsion in Travis County, Texas. Twenty persons voluntarily evacuated; fire is burning inside the subdivision, one unoccupied structure was destroyed and three homes have been damaged. FMAG issued September 14, 2006. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)