National Situation Update: Thursday, September 14, 2006
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
National Weather Forecast
Northeast:
A damp, rainy day is forecast for the Northeast tomorrow, although the precipitation should be tapering off by evening in the Mid-Atlantic region. Showers will linger over the Northeast on Friday with vast improvement coming late Saturday and into Sunday.
South:
Localized downpours and thunderstorms are predicted over the eastern Carolinas and Florida, but dry conditions should prevail elsewhere in the South. In fact, there should be an abundance of sunshine from Texas to Georgia.
West:
Much cooler air accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread through the Northwest tomorrow, including western Montana, hopefully bringing relief to the wildfire situation, however gusty winds over the northern Rockies, in the Great Basin and across portions of Oregon and California may temporarily worsen conditions. Farther south, scattered showers and storms are forecast to dot the higher elevations of the Four Corners states
Midwest:
Dry weather will prevail in the vast majority of the Midwest and Great Plains tomorrow, although a few sprinkles may linger in eastern Ohio. Gusty southerly winds will drive warm air northward over the Plains and Upper Midwest. (NWS, Media Sources)
Northwest Indiana Flooding
The downpours that blasted Northwest Indiana Wednesday morning left much of northern Lake County under water, stranded motorists and even caused numerous basement walls to collapse.
The north side of the city of Highland appeared to be the hardest hit, where basement walls were giving way and gas leaks were reported. Many of the addresses reported appeared to be within a block or two of Grace Street, both north and south of Ridge Road.
Lake County, the towns of Highland, East Chicago and Griffith declared local emergencies
State Emergency Operations reported that over 600 to 1,000 homes were impacted. There is no information yet on local businesses. The State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is activated.
FEMA Region V liaison has been requested and will arrive in the affected area Thursday. State and federal officials will meet Thursday to start the PDA process. (FEMA Region V, media sources)
El Nino Conditions Rapidly Developing – Likely to Continue Into 2007
El Nino is back. Forecasters say a new El Nino, a patch of unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean that develops every few years, will mean warmer temperatures and stormier weather for the United States this winter.
The good news is that El Nino may help explain why the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet. Last year's season set a record of 27 named tropical storms and hurricanes. This year, there's been only seven.
An El Nino expert at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that El Nino alters the atmospheric circulation pattern. There is an increase of winds that shear off the tops of thunderstorms before they have a chance to spin up and become a tropical storm.
This year's El Nino began in late August or early September will likely hang around until early spring.
When an El Nino forms in the Pacific, it generally means drier conditions for places like Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, researchers say. As winter approaches, El Nino will begin to change the jet stream over the Northern Hemisphere and affect the temperature and weather patterns over the United States. The northern United States, much of the West, Great Lakes, and parts of New England will experience warmer than normal temperatures. NOAA experts also say that stormier, wetter conditions could be expected for much of the Southwest, southern Texas, Florida and the Southeast.
El Nino is a natural phenomenon that transports heat out of the Tropics and gives it away so we maintain some kind of climatic equilibrium, NOAA experts say.
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ, FEMA Region X)
Tropical Activity
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
At 5:00 AM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located about 695 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and 2,100 miles from Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph, and this motion is expected to continue over the next day. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. All of the models forecast a northwestward motion, at about half the current Forward speed, over the central atlantic during days 3-5.
At 05:00 AM EDT powerful Hurricane Gordon is located about 550 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Gordon is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph. A gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. Gordon is no threat to land.
Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.
Central and Eastern Pacific
At 5:00 AM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Lane is about 90 miles south of Lazaro Cardenas Mexico. Although the center is expected to remain offshore, tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across the Mexican coast today. The official forecast maintains a northward motion, albeit it very slow given the uncertainty.
Western Pacific
No tropical systems pose threats to United States territories at this time. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level - 5
National Fire Activity
Initial attack activity: Light (162 new fires)
New large fires: 3
Large fires contained: 3
Uncontained large fires: 46
Area Command Teams: 1
Type 1 IMTs: 9
Type 2 IMTs: 15
Fire Use Teams: 5
Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft deployed to Klamath Falls, Oregon are tentatively planned to be released Thursday morning 9/14/06.
Three MAFFS C-130 aircraft deployed to Boise, ID.
New Zealand and Australia are providing 115 fire specialists and managers to assist with suppression operations, including 24 new personnel arriving this week.
2005 Season: 8,700,000
2006 Season: 8,693,994 acres burned to date
Structure Loss 2005 Season: Primary 258, Commercial 16, Outbuildings 517
Structure Loss 2006 Season year to date: Primary 654, Commercial 54, Outbuildings 1353
Critical resource needs:
Mid-level fireline and aviation management personnel
Type 1 Hotshot Crews
Type 2 Initial Attack Crews
Type 2 Crews
Major Evacuations/Structures Threatened:
Day Fire, Los Padres National Forest. A Type 1 IMT is assigned. Twenty-Two miles northwest of Santa Clarita, California. Short range spotting, fire whirls and backing fire. Structures, watershed, campgrounds, communications sites and archeological sites threatened. Structure protection in place. (23,943 Acres, 25% containment) (National Interagency Fire Center)
Fire Weather Outlook:
Fire conditions will remain severe through Wednesday, Thursday should bring significant moisture to the Northwest, Idaho, Montana, and portions of Wyoming that could be a season ending event for some of these areas.
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Thursday, 14-Sep-2006 09:59:38 EDT