National Situation Update: Tuesday, September 12, 2006
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Commercial Aviation ORANGE
National Weather Forecast
Midwest:
A slow-moving storm system will bring thunder and wet weather to much of the Midwest, mainly east of the Mississippi River. The heaviest and steadiest precipitation will soak southeastern Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky, where at least an inch or two of rain is expected. The west will be generally sunny.
South:
Showers and thunderstorms will focus along the Gulf Coast, including the west coast of Florida, and from Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama northward through eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee. Much of the Southeast, Oklahoma and northern Texas are expected to remain dry. Isolated severe thunderstorms may billow up in the afternoon over the lower Mississippi Valley.
Northeast:
The vast majority of the Northeast will remain dry, although some late-day showers could push into the far western New York, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Frost will again whiten the ground near sunrise in parts of Upstate New York and New England.
West:
Isolated showers or thunderstorms will dot parts of New Mexico and southern Arizona, but most of the West will be sunny and dry. A significant change looms for later in the week, when temperatures will be tumbling. (NWS, Media Sources)
Tropical Activity
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Hurricane Florence was located about 825 miles east of Norfolk, Virginia. Florence is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph a turn towards the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast during the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph, with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hour. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. Based on the current warning Florence poses no threat to the United States but a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bermuda and large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are forecast to affect the East Coast of the United States.
At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located 600 miles ENE of Puerto Rico. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, with higher gusts. Gordon is expected to become a hurricane during the next day or so. Tropical force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center. Gordon will most likely spend its lifetime over water, and poses no threat to the United States.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a strong tropical wave near the west coast of Africa. This system, moving westward at about 15 mph, has some potential for development during the next day or two as it moves over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday.
Central and Eastern Pacific
There are no tropical systems but the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a number of tropical waves.
Western Pacific
Tropical Depression 14W (Shanshan) is located approximately 667 miles southeast of Naha, Okinawa, Japan. This poses no threat to United States territories at this time. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level - 5
National Fire Activity
- Initial attack activity: Moderate (86 new fires)
- New large fires: 1
- Large fires contained: 3
- Uncontained large fires: 48
- Area Command Teams: 2
- Type 1 IMTs: 10
- Type 2 IMTs: 17
- Fire Use Teams: 5
Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft deployed to Boise, Idaho.(A fifth MAFFS unit is being ordered to bring the number assigned to Boise, Idaho to three)
Australia and New Zealand assisting with 91 fire specialist and managers. An additional 24 personnel are being ordered from Australia and New Zealand.
2005 (1/1/05 - 9/11/05) Fires: 47,786 Acres: 8,037,248
2006 (1/1/06 - 9/11/06) Fires: 81,518 Acres: 8,694,479
Structure Loss 2005 Season: Primary 258, Commercial 16, Outbuildings 517
Structure Loss 2006 Season year to date: Primary 654, Commercial 54, Outbuildings 1353
Critical resource needs:
- Mid-level fire line and aviation management personnel
- Type 1 Hotshot Crews
- Type 2 Initial Attack Crews
- Type 2 Crews (National Interagency Fire Center)
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Tuesday, 12-Sep-2006 08:02:54 EDT