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National Situation Update: Sunday, September 10, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

National Weather Forecast

West: The cold front over Montana and Idaho will produce only isolated precipitation. Rain and thunderstorms will be primarily confined to the Front Range of the Rockies today. The fire danger will remain high with temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above average. The Desert Southwest will see highs above 100 degrees.

Midwest: A low over Kansas and associated frontal system will produce rain, and scattered thunderstorms will fall over Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri and slowly expand eastward across Iowa, southern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin and Illinois. Frost advisories and freeze warnings are in effect for northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan this morning as lows across the northern Great Lakes are forecast to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s

South: Scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the southern Plains and the Gulf Coast regions. The Big Bend area of Florida may have some severe thunderstorm activity this morning.  Temperatures will become gradually cooler throughout the region over the next several days.

Northeast: A stationary front will shift southward through the Middle Atlantic region today and on down to the Carolinas by Monday. Expect gusty northeast winds and considerable cloudiness with showers in the central Appalachians.  The combination of the Canadian high moving in behind the front and Florence well offshore in the open Atlantic will increase the surf and rip currents along the Eastern Seaboard early in the week. (NWS, Media Sources)

Hurricane Season

September 10 marks the historical peak of hurricane activity.

The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season. (National Hurricane Center)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Hurricane Florence was located about 320 miles south of Bermuda and 940 miles from Miami, Florida. Florence is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph, and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph, with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. Based on the current warning Florence poses no threat to the United States but a Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bermuda and large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions could affect the East Coast of the United States over the next day or two.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a number of tropical waves in the Atlantic and Caribbean but none are favorable for development.

Central and Eastern Pacific
The remnants of Tropical Depression Kristy continue to dissipate about 1,600 miles east-southeast of Honolulu HI.

Western Pacific
Tropical depression (TD) 14W located approximately 890 miles southeast of Naha, Okinawa, Japan. This poses no threat to the United States territories at this time.
The area of convection located 300 miles north of Yap shows the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

NORTH CAROLINA: Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for 12 counties began September 6, 2006, and are scheduled to be completed by September 11.

ALASKA: Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for the Mat-Su Borough and the City of Cordova are scheduled to begin on September 11.(FEMA HQ)  

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level - 5

Current Situation:  Large wildland fires are classified as 100 acres or larger in timber fuel types, 300 acres or larger in grass fuel types, or when a type 1 or 2 Incident Management Team (IMT) is assigned.

National Fire Activity

• Initial attack activity: Moderate (134 new fires)
• New large fires:  7
• Large fires contained: 4
• Uncontained large fires: 57
• Area Command Teams: 2
• Type 1 IMTs:  11
• Type 2 IMTs:  21
• Fire Use Teams:  5

Critical resource needs:

• Mid-level fireline and aviation management personnel
  
• Type 1 Hotshot Crews
• Type 2 Initial Attack Crews 
• Type 2 Crews       (National Interagency Fire Center)
  

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)