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National Situation Update: Saturday, September 9, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE


National Weather Forecast

West: A weakening cold front is moving inland and dissipating but will still produce showers across the Pacific Northwest. Expect scattered thunderstorms along the front range of the Rockies but rain and thunderstorms will move eastward from Utah and Arizona to New Mexico and Texas by the end of the weekend. Highs across the Desert Southwest will remain over 100 degrees.

Midwest: Low pressure aloft over the Rockies will move into the Plains this weekend producing rain and thunderstorms from the central Plains, through the mid-Mississippi Valley, to the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Monday.  Morning lows will drop into the 30s from North Dakota to Upper Michigan this weekend

South: Showers are forecast across much of the southern Plains and Texas. Scattered thunderstorms will also prevail across the Gulf Coast and the Florida peninsula, some of them severe. The rest of the South will be warm and dry.

Northeast: A low pressure system and associated frontal system moving in from the Great Lakes will produce rain and scattered thunderstorms over Upstate New York and northern New England.  The cold front will produce a significant drop in temperatures from highs in the 70s and 80s today will drop by 60s and low 70s on Sunday. (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located about 580 miles south-southeast of Bermuda and about 1,200 miles from Miami, Florida. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph, and is expected to turn northwest or north-northwest during the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Florence could become a hurricane later today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 345 miles. Based on the current warning

Florence poses no threat to the United States but a Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bermuda and large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions could affect the East Coast of the United States over the next day or two.

A Tropical wave along 48 west and south of  25 north with has the possibility of development into a tropical system over the next few days.

Central and Eastern Pacific
The remnants of Tropical Depression Kristy continue to dissipate about 1,650 miles east-southeast of Honolulu HI.

Western Pacific
The Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for the area some 450 miles northwest of Wake Island has been canceled. The potential for the development within the next 24 hours has been downgraded to poor. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

NORTH CAROLINA: Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for 12 counties began September 6, 2006, and are scheduled to be completed by September 11.

ALASKA: Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for the Mat-Su Borough and the City of Cordova are scheduled to begin on September 11.

ILLINOIS: Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for the City of Rockford in Winnebago County were scheduled to begin on September 8.

MARYLAND: Public Assistance PDA for two counties was scheduled to begin on September 8. (FEMA HQ) 

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level – 5

Current Situation:   Large wildland fires are classified as 100 acres or larger in timber fuel types, 300 acres or larger in grass fuel types, or when a type 1 or 2 Incident Management Team (IMT) is assigned.

National Fire Activity

Initial attack activity: Moderate (153 new fires)

New large fires:                15

Large fires contained:       5

Uncontained large fires:    58

Area Command Teams:     2

Type 1 IMTs:                    11

Type 2 IMTs:                    21

Fire Use Teams:                6

** Uncontained large fires do not include Wildland Fire Use or limited suppression incidents. **

Two Modular Airborne Firefighting System (MAFFS) C-130 aircraft deployed to Klamath Falls, OR.

Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft deployed to Boise, ID.(A fifth MAFFS unit is being ordered to bring the number assigned to Boise, ID to three)

Australia and New Zealand assisting with 92 fire specialist and managers. An additional 24 personnel are being ordered from Australia and New Zealand.

Canada assisting with four 20-person crews, and 20 fire specialist and managers.

Ten year average year to date: 4,877,654

2006 Season: 8,586,570 acres burned to date

Structure Loss 2005 Season: Primary 258, Commercial 16, Outbuildings 517

Structure Loss 2006 Season year to date: Primary 654, Commercial 56, Outbuildings 1353

Critical resource needs:

  • Mid-level fireline and aviation management personnel
  • Type 1 Hotshot Crews
  • Type 2 Initial Attack Crews
  • Type 2 Crews (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

New Mexico Disaster Amended: New Mexico major disaster, FEMA-1659-DR-NM, dated August 30, 2006 is amended September 8, 2006.  This amendment established that Otero County is eligible for Individual Assistance; Grant, Guadalupe, Harding, Hidalgo, Mora, Sandoval, San Miguel, Sierra, and Torrance Counties have been determined eligible for Public Assistance (FEMA HQ) 

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:22:18 EDT